Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Byers, CO

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday June 20, 2019 5:50 PM MDT (23:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:15PMMoonset 8:25AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Byers, CO
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location: 39.94, -104     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 202130
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
330 pm mdt Thu jun 20 2019

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 320 pm mdt Thu jun 20 2019
scattered fast-moving storms are spreading northeast onto the
plains, and coverage will continue to increase through the
afternoon and evening. Shear values of 40 to 60 kts (highest found
towards the northern state border and CAPE values of 600-1000 j kg
(highest values from eastern adams and arapahoe counties southeast
to lincoln county) will allow for the chance for severe
thunderstorms, with large hail and strong winds being the main
impact. The chance of these stronger storms will mainly be along
and east of a line from the colorado wyoming nebraska state
borders south to hugo in lincoln county. May find the larger hail
stones further over the northern plains due to the higher moisture
available. Further west of this area, larger dewpoint depressions
and higher cloud bases will allow for gusty outflows in the 40-55
mph range. This activity will tend to weaken in the mid to late
evening and diminish south to north, however due to the jet and
cold front of the western montana upper low sinking further into
wyoming, showers and storms will likely be ongoing through the
night over the northern mountains and perhaps over the northern
plains.

The cold front is expected to push into the forecast area after
midnight, pushing in some areas of fog, which should remain more
over the eastern plains. Snow levels will be lowering over the
northern mountains from 10 thousand to around 9 thousand by Friday
afternoon. Up to 3 inches of snow may be found above 10 thousand
feet near and north of rabbit ears pass and rmnp. Where the cold
front ends up will determine where storm initiation will begin
over the plains. Capes of 800-1600 j kg are expected along and
ahead of the front with shear of 50-80 kts. Severe storms will
likely occur again in the afternoon, with storms pushing northeast
into the more stable airmass over the northern plains, but still
may last awhile due to the shear. Temperatures will likely be 5 to
15 degrees cooler.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 320 pm mdt Thu jun 20 2019
first day of summer this year brings the topic of snow for the
high country as a cold and deepening storm system affects the
northern and central portion of the state. More on that issue
later.

For Friday night on the plains, a reinforcing cool surge moves
onto the northeast plains. A significant drop in temperatures is
not expected with the strengthening northern surface winds,
however surface dew points behind the front are lower. Daytime dew
points in the mid 50s Friday get displaced southward and replaced
with dew points in the lower to mid 40s by 06z sat. While showers
and storms will be likely across the plains in the evening hours,
this drier air push will focus the strongest late evening
convection along the palmer ridge and locations east and south as
an axis of 800-1800 j kg ml capes devlops in that region of the
eastern plains.

Meanwhile, much of co including northeast co is in an environment of
weak but prolonged QG ascent as an extended upper jet rides to
the north of the state. Energy and colder air on the back side of
an upper trough moves into the northern great basin and utah
vicinity by 06z Saturday as the main upper closed low over on the
canada n.Dakota border continues it's northerly track into
saskatchewan. For the next weather maker which will bring snow to
the higher co mountains, latest runs now keep this second cold
wave mostly open and positively tilted as it begins to move into
the central rockies. Near advisory snowfall totals are expected at
this time for the northern ranges as northern co will be under
the right entrance region of the 90-110kt jet in the 400-300mb
layer. A CSI banding nature to the precip could be possible across
the CWA late Friday night into Saturday. With the enhancement of
orographics and possible convection in the mountains, snowfall
totals of 2-6 inches are likely over the northern mountains,
mainly above 10000ft, with the highest totals over the northern
peaks above 11000ft receiving 5- 10 inches over the 48-60 hr
stretch from Friday thru Sunday morning.

For the lower elevations Saturday, still a wide range to the
guidance temps provided for the highs. Have leaned toward to cool
side of guidance expectinh MAX temps in the mid to upper 60 for
the plains as a cool, moist and stable sounding profile looks to
be in place thru the day. Light showers and weak afternoon
thunderstorms will be likely, however capes for Saturday afternoon
are quite low with 200-800 j kg ml capes developing over the
mountains and palmer ridge late in the day. With the coldest temps
aloft moving over the state Saturday night into Sunday morning,
will expect precip to be in the form of snow again across the
higher mountains late Saturday into Sunday morning. Despite better
cold air advection, amounts will be lighter than Friday night
totals as the best dynamics aloft and decreasing depth of
moisture have pushed northeastward onto the central us plains. As
the upper trough ejects out onto the plains, a sharp transition
over to QG subsidence takes over the region. Negative surface
omega holds across the eastern plains into the overnight hours so
will likely see some low clouds and showers into daybreak Sunday
morning along with chilly temps in the lower to mid 40s. Denver's
record low for june 23rd is 43 degf last set back in 1964, so will
keep watch for that mark if skies clear out early.

For the rest of the day Sunday, the area will be under cool and
drying northwesterly flow throughout the entire sounding. Despite an
environemt of synoptic subsidence over the state, will still
expect isolated to scattered coverage of afternoon and early
evening showers and weak storms with capes building to a meager
400-600 j kg over much of the plains.

By Sunday night into Monday, a weak ridge of high pressure begins to
build over the great basin as the storm system that affected the
region moves inot the great lakes region. This ridge axis
gradually shifts and broadens over the entire central us placing
all of co and northern co in dry southwesterly flow aloft. This
trend continues through the end of the week with drier v type
sounding across the plains and daily highs reaching the mid 80s to
around 90 degf for both Wednesday and Thursday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 320 pm mdt Thu jun 20 2019
vfr conditions expected through 06z. Isolated to scattered high
based showers and thunderstorms are expected occur through 00z
around the terminals. Strong and shifting outflow winds will be
possible in and near the convection. After 00z, winds should
become northeasterly, with a cold front to pass in the 10-14z
time frame, then winds will become easterly direction. This will
increase low level moisture and could produce fog over parts of
eastern colorado. At this time, appears the fog will stay
northeast of the denver area. However lower clouds may affect the
airport between 11z-15z before Sun heats the airmass. Confidence
is low on the frontal position tomorrow, but it will likely be
somewhere between den and apa, so storm initiation will be near
the area, with storms expected shortly after 18z, with large hail
and strong winds possible.

Bou watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Kriederman
long term... Fredin
aviation... Kriederman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denver Nexrad, CO31 mi54 minESE 9 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F53°F44%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from FTG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NW4SE3S7S7SW5S4SW10SW13SW3N8SE5SE4E6SE8--E6E9SE13
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1 day agoE7E5S5SW8SW7SW8SW8SW9SW8W8SW8S4CalmN3S5S8SW11
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2 days agoCalmW6--N9NE4CalmSW6NW7N6N6NW5NW4NW4NW4W5W4CalmCalmN4E5NE7S3CalmE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.