Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brighton, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:08PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 11:43 PM MST (06:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:26PMMoonset 10:12AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, CO
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location: 39.94, -104.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 240415
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
915 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019

Update
Issued at 910 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019
did some minor editing of the weather and wind grids for tonight.

Models have had a terrible handle of the winds this evening, and
not so great at this first wave of energy and shower area. Not
totally believing the rest of the evening's shower forecast from
the models until the main front early tomorrow morning. Believe
there will be some isolated showers, just not confident on timing
or location.

Overall for tomorrow's snow event spreading over the plains and
into the metro area for rush hour, most models are showing a
slight uptick in snow amounts except the 00z gfs, showing a
slightly decrease. Still think the forecast of 1 to 4 inches
across the area is good, with SREF plumes mean at 2.2 and only
varying up to 3.4 inches. Timing looks to be in the 6am to noon
time frame for snow across the plains and metro areas, sinking
south through the morning. Advisory still looks good for the
mountains, with most locations showing 3 to 4 inches already,
slightly more near rabbit ears pass.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 344 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019
an upper level trough will usher the next snow system into the
mountains this evening. There will be a front moving through the
area around midnight, bringing gusty winds of up to 25 mph.

Timing of QG values indicating lift over the plains varies from
one model to the next, with the NAM showing very little and the
gfs showing much higher values, though all show some snow
occurring. Also, an upper level jet will allow for favorable
conditions increasing lift through the area. Model soundings point
toward moisture availability and unstable conditions before noon.

A system will bring snow to the mountains this evening.

Total accumulations will be 4 to 8 inches over the mountains,
with areas such as rabbit ears pass seeing around 12 inches.

Overnight, snow will develop over the eastern plains, increasing
by early morning as shallow upslope develops behind the front.

Areas near denver and the palmer divide, as well as along the i-25
corridor, will see accumulations between 1 and 3 inches.

Elsewhere across the plains, less snow is expected. This snow will
lead to hazardous travel conditions for the morning commute due
to slick and snow covered roads in the above mentioned areas.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 344 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019
for Thursday night into Friday, the lift and energy that brought
snow to the plains will move off to the east as another
disturbance lines up over id and montana. Dominate NW flow aloft
will keep a steady stream of moisture moving into the mountains
with light snow possible given orographic influence. By midnight
Thursday the right entrance region of the upper jet will move into
the central and northern mountains helping to increase the lift
associated with the upper level disturbance dropping out of
wyoming. Moisture is weak, but some accumulation over the higher
terrain, especially over park and gore ranges will be possible.

With the upper jet, winds over the mountains will increase
Thursday nigh through Friday with gusts up to 45 mph possible over
the higher mountain passes. At the surface, wnw flow and a
deepening sfc low over the western portions of the plains will
help to keep things dry given the increased downsloping. Winds
remain light over the metro area, but will increase over the far
eastern plains with some gusting up to 30 mph possible Friday
morning and into the afternoon. By Friday afternoon, the upper jet
will push to the SE with just a slight chance of light snow into
the evening hours on Friday for the mountains. Temperatures will
hover around seasonal normals with highs Friday in the lower 40s.

For the weekend, conditions will remain dry on the plains with
another shot of snow for the mountains due to a disturbance embedded
in NW flow. Models show a weak cold front pushing SE over the plains
early Saturday but will not allow for any snow at lower elevations.

Conditions over the mountains will improve slightly by late Saturday
as moisture becomes weak. Conditions will remain dry across the
region Sunday prior to the next system. Temperatures for the weekend
will range in the 40s to lower 50s with lows below zero.

The next system to possibly bring snow to lower elevations will move
in on Monday. At this time models show the deep high over the
pacific helping to keep colorado under NW flow aloft. This will help
to direct colder systems moving down from canada over the region.

This is the case for Monday with an open wave dropping out of the
pacific NW and extending south into northern colorado by Monday
afternoon. There is decent jet influence with this system by Monday
morning with QG of upwards of -15 mb hr. Models do show a decent
frontal push on the plains by mid-day Monday increasing northerly
flow. Currently, the models are showing this system to be moving
through rather quickly, but some accumulation in the mountains and
at lower elevations is possible. Especially over the southern
foothills and palmer divide where upslope will be better.

Temperatures will drop significantly Monday into Monday night due to
the front with 700 mb values in the -15 to -18 c range. Highs will
most likely stay below freezing Monday and drop into the single
digits Monday night. Precipitation will come to an end early Tuesday
with cold temperatures continuing.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 913 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019
this evening's winds have been very difficult to forecast, with
models being of little help. However, think the overall pattern
will be easterly veering to brief drainage by midnight, before
switching back to northeast by 9 or 10z ahead of the main front
expected around 12z.VFR expected through this evening with ifr
possible after 09z. Light snow showers could develop after 03z
bringing less than a half inch of accumulation before 11z. A cold
front will bring northeast winds, which could gust to 20 knots
between 12z and 17z. Snow will be most likely from 12z-17z where
there could be 1 to 3 inches of accumulation at the airports.

Visibility will likely drop to 2sm at least and possibly down to
1sm or less with any stronger snow showers between 13z and 17z.

Thursday afternoon conditions are expected to clear, with only
scattered high clouds by 00z.

Bou watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 11 am mst Thursday for coz031-033-
034.

Update... Kriederman
short term... Sullivan
long term... Bowen
aviation... Kriederman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO8 mi51 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast28°F26°F92%1016.2 hPa
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO15 mi1.8 hrsE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy27°F16°F64%1017.2 hPa
Erie Municipal Airport, CO16 mi50 minS 310.00 miOvercast31°F21°F69%1017.6 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO16 mi2.9 hrsE 10 miMostly Cloudy32°F21°F64%1014.9 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO19 mi52 minSE 410.00 miOvercast30°F23°F75%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from DEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW15SW11SW14SW15SW12SW11SW9SW11SW9W15W8S6S7S4E7E8E9E5SE6E6E9E12E9SE10
1 day agoN22
G31
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N24
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N21N17
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G29
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N20N18N18
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N13N8N3S3S7S9S11S14
2 days agoW9S5SW10SW9SW7CalmE3W4W4CalmN3SW9
G16
W8
G16
S17
G26
N11N13NW11S6S6SW8NE12E8N25
G40
N30
G47

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.