Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millbourne, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:12PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 2:25 AM EST (07:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:26AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 924 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, decreasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely.
ANZ400 924 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. In the wake of a strong cold front, high pressure will gradually build east through the remainder of the week before moving out to sea Saturday. A cold front and low pressure then arrives from the west on Sunday and proceeds offshore next Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millbourne , PA
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location: 39.96, -75.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240707
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
207 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Synopsis
In the wake of a strong cold front, high pressure will gradually build
east through the remainder of the week, before moving out to sea
Saturday. A cold front and low pressure then arrives from the west
on Sunday and proceeds offshore next Monday.

Near term through today
1230 am estf: raised early morning low temps per raided wind
gusts (mixing-flushing out the warm airmass) and added quite a
bit of skycover in the cold air advection pattern. Isolated
radiational cooling should not last long.

Today... Partly to mostly cloudy this morning with probably some
thinning of the cold air advection cloud cover mid afternoon. A
gusty northwest wind of 25 to 30 mph this morning-midday should
diminish a bit by mid afternoon. Stayed close (raised 1f) to
the prev fcst MAX temps which are decidedly cooler than the
00z 24 GFS mos. Still the daytime high temp should be within 4f
of normal.

Short term tonight
Mid and high cloud increases late, especially pa nj. Otherwise
a diminished wind but temps winds were basically a continuity
forecast from the previous 330 pm Tuesday forecast. Low temps
basically within 2f of normal.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
This section will update by around 330 am.

With ongoing weather earlier today, few changes made in the long
term from the previous forecast.

500mb: another short wave trough moves a cross the mid atlantic
coast Wednesday night followed by substantial ridging Friday and
Saturday, then another trough develops to the east coast next Sunday
and Monday.

Temperature: calendar day averages should range between 3 and 7
degrees above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and Friday, on
Saturday near 10 degrees above normal, Sunday probably 12 to 18
degrees above normal, cooling a bit to 5 to 10 degrees above next
Monday.

Forecast basis: Wednesday-Thursday is based on a blended 00z 22
gfs NAM mos, Thursday night-Friday was based on the 00z 22 GFS mex
mos and then d4-8 was based on the 0441z wpc guidance.

Thursday... Mostly sunny and brisk. Northwest gusty 20-25 mph. Max
temps 2 to 7f below normal. The Thu night mins about 2f below
normal. Confidence: above average.

Friday... Mostly sunny. Wind becoming light southwest. MAX temps near
normal. Confidence: above average.

Saturday... Increasing clouds and milder. Southwest gust 20 to 30
mph. Chance of showers at night. MAX temps 10 to 15f above normal.

Sat night mins. Probably 15 to 20 degrees above normal! Confidence:
above average.

Sunday... Showers with a coldfront and developing low pressure on the
front. This part of the fcst differs considerably than what i'd
anticipated earlier and it is a GEFS combo with the ggem and ecmwf
both pretty confidence on a wet 12 to 24 hours much more so than the
00z 23 GFS op. So have followed wpc guidance pops. MAX temp 10 to 15
above normal. Gusty southerly flow with a wind shift to west
probable at night. Confidence on overall scenario: above average but
below average on details including timing cfp.

Monday... Cooler but daytime MAX temps still probably 5f above
normal. GFS continues to depict a mid or upper level short wave
trough digging south through this period, allowing for snow showers
on the back side of this. However, other models have slight
differences in the track and intensity of the trough, keeping our
area dry. Thus, expect showers to be ending or gone by this period.

Confidence: average.

Tuesday... Strong cold air advection continues behind the cold front.

High temperatures are expected to be slightly be normal. Confidence:
average.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...VFR, with some clouds around 5,000 feet
mainly west of phl. West-northwest winds around 10 knots overall
with a few gusts 15-20 kt.

Today...VFR generally broken clouds at or above 3,500 feet
thinning this afternoon. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots, perhaps even 28 kt this morning
tonight...VFR. Sct-bkn clouds AOA 4000 ft, mostly AOA 15000 ft.

Northwest wind may gust 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR. West to northwest wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday...VFR. Light wind becoming southwest.

Saturday...VFR gusty southwest wind 20-30 kt. Chance of MVFR conds
later at night in showers.

Sunday... MVFR or lower conditions with low clouds and rain likely.

Light southwesterly winds.

Marine
Sca today and may extend at 330 am into tonight. Still needs
evaluation.

Outlook...

Thursday... A west northwest wind could gust around 25 knots and
the small craft advisory may need to be extended in time.

Thursday night through Friday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

Saturday... A southwest wind small craft advisory may be needed.

Sunday... No marine headlines anticipated.

Hydrology
Forecast points... With up to two inches of rain across portions
of schuylkill county, rises were quick Tuesday morning at the
landingville USGS gauge. Landingville has crested and water is
currently working down the schuylkill. Crest forecasts have been
updated for all points on the schuylkill. Although berne has
reached caution action stage, no flooding is expected at any
forecast point on the schuylkill.

Snow... Any remaining snow on the ground, which is near zero across
much of the hsa, is hydrologically insignificant.

River ice... We continue to receive reports of solid ice cover on the
delaware river, but conditions are not as widespread as last week.

We know of solid ice near trenton from about the route 1 bridge
south down to about borderntown, or near the head of the tide. We
also know of ice further north near and in the delaware water gap.

With the warm temperatures the last few days combined with today's
precipitation and rising water levels, melting and fracturing ice
will occur. Restrictions in flow or ice jams are possible as ice
breaks up and begins to move.

Since ice jams can not be predicted with certainty, the best
approach is awareness and to take notice of day to day changes on a
river or stream of concern.

Climate
For what its worth: acy is already 8" above the entire seasonal
normal snowfall... 24.2" vs entire season 16.2.

January average temps... Negative departure will warm another
degree or degree and one half for the rest of the month over the
entire area so that monthly norms be below normal except possibly
abe.

Will provide detail projection for phl around 430 am.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until noon est today for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Drag
short term... Drag
long term... Johnson
aviation... Drag johnson
marine... Drag johnson
hydrology...

climate... Drag 207a


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 3 mi38 min 44°F 34°F1009.4 hPa
BDSP1 6 mi38 min 42°F 37°F1009.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi44 min 40°F 36°F1009.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 18 mi50 min W 8.9 G 9.9 41°F 33°F1008.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 26 mi38 min W 6 G 8 41°F 33°F1009.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 34 mi38 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 42°F 32°F1010.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi38 min 42°F 33°F1010.1 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi44 min SSW 4.1 G 7 43°F 35°F1010.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 46 mi38 min SW 12 G 12 37°F 33°F1010.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi56 min SW 2.9 36°F 1009 hPa29°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA6 mi32 minWSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F30°F68%1010.1 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA12 mi32 minSSW 410.00 miFair41°F30°F65%1009.9 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA13 mi31 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F30°F75%1009.8 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ18 mi32 minWSW 610.00 miFair42°F30°F62%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE4S9
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S9S7W9W8W10
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1 day agoCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE4E45S3S3CalmS3E4SE3E3CalmE4E7CalmS7SE7S8S9
2 days agoS4W3W3CalmS5CalmSW5W4S4NW3NW3W4SW6S3SW5SW4S4S3CalmE3SE3S3CalmNW7

Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Wed -- 12:55 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EST     5.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:27 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 06:36 PM EST     5.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.40.32.34.255.35.14.231.910.3-0.1-01.33.44.75.25.24.63.42.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:05 AM EST     1.95 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:47 AM EST     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:35 PM EST     1.87 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:51 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:00 PM EST     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-1.1-0.21.21.91.61.10.5-0.6-1.5-1.9-1.9-1.7-1.4-0.80.41.71.81.30.8-0.2-1.3-2-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.