Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavallette, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:59PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:16 PM EST (19:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:48AMMoonset 5:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1248 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of rain late in the evening. Rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Rain in the morning. Snow likely. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Light freezing spray in the late evening and overnight.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Light freezing spray in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 1248 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A ridge of high pressure will weaken across the area this afternoon. A low pressure system and front will approach from the great lakes region tonight. Another low will develop off the coast and affect the weather tonight and early Wednesday. More high pressure will build towards the area late this week and remain for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavallette , NJ
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location: 39.98, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161901
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
201 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will weaken across the area today. A
low pressure system and front will approach from the great lakes
region tonight. Another low will develop off the coast and
affect the weather tonight and early Wednesday. More high
pressure will build towards the area late this week and remain
for the weekend. Low pressure and a cold front will move towards
the middle atlantic region for the start of next week.

Near term through Wednesday morning
A complete update to the forecast was published late this
morning. A new storm total snow graphic and experimental
probabilistic graphics were sent to the web as well. These
updates required headline changes. The key changes in the
forecast are listed below:
(1) upgraded to a winter storm warning for carbon and monroe
counties in pa and sussex county in nj with 5-7" of snowfall
(including the 1" or less that has fallen so far) expected for
this event. Hi-res models are keying in on strong mesoscale
banding on the northwestern side of the developing coastal low
late this evening and overnight over the southern poconos and
continuing into the Wednesday morning commute for northwestern
nj.

(2) tweaked the start end times for the winter weather
advisories with an emphasis on delaying the onset of
accumulating snow to the S E of the lehigh valley, southern
poconos and far NW nj (where light snow is ongoing). See the
experimental onset timing graphic on our winter webpage for
specifics.

(3) introduced more mixing E of the fall line, especially early
on in the event. Temps this afternoon in the 40s along E of
i-95 and mid to upper 30s just to the west. Just about all of
the guidance shows this residual warm boundary layer present at
the onset of precipitation tonight, resulting in mainly rain
along and E of i-95 at the onset and a rain-snow mix just to the
n w. CAA and dynamical cooling will allow for a changeover to
snow from NW to SE toward early morning but expect riming and
melting at the surface to result in lower snow ratios and thus
snowfall amounts near and especially south of i-78 as well as
east of i-287.

(4) emphasized window for heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1-2"
per hour late tonight across NE pa and N nj. The heavy snow
potential extends into the first half of Wednesday morning
along and east of the de valley. This means significant impacts
for the morning commute. Even though snowfall amounts are
generally lower than warning criteria for warren and morris
counties in nj (3-6"), we will have to consider upgrading to a
warning based on impact on the morning rush.

Short term Wednesday afternoon
The accumulating snow should be over by midday for just about
the entire area. However, very light snow or flurries could
linger or redevelop during the afternoon near the coast as the
upper low and associated upper-level jet streak approaches from
the southwest.

High temperatures range from the mid 20s in NE pa to mid 30s in
c S nj, philadelphia and delmarva.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The upper low that affected the weather in the near short term
parts of the forecast will be moving though the tidewater area
and it will take the last of the precip with it. We only has a
few lingering showers Wed evening across the ERN srn most parts
of the area. Sprawling high pressure from the southern
mississippi valley will begin to move into the area. Dry weather
is expected for Wed night and into Thu Fri as the high builds.

Temperatures will be below normal until Friday, when readings
will be near normal.

The high continues to affect the weather this weekend, so more
fair weather is expected. The airmass will moderate as the upper
ridge continues to build. Temperatures will be closer to 10
degrees above normal by Saturday and the near 15 degrees above
normal by Sunday.

The next low pressure system will be rather intense as it moves
from the plains states to the great lakes area early next week.

We will be on the warmer side of the system, so mostly rain is
expected at this time. Temperatures will still be much above
normal Mon before returning closer to normal tue. High chance
and low likely pops (srn poconos) are in the fcst at this time.

Pops decrease back to slgt chc for Tuesday after the cold front
crosses the area.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon and evening... MVFR andVFR ceilings. Brief lull
in the snow at krdg and kabe early this afternoon before the
steadier snow and ifr restrictions returns around or just after
00z this evening.

Overnight... Snow developing with conditions lowering to ifr from
nw to SE across the area. Lifr possible at rdg-abe-ttn late
tonight.

Wednesday... The snow is expected to end in the morning with
conditions improving toVFR for the afternoon hours.

Outlook...

wed night...VFR. Fair with W to NW winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thu thru sat...VFR. NW W winds Thu Fri and SW winds sat.

Marine
A small craft advisory will remain in effect for our ocean
waters from manasquan inlet to fenwick island until 6:00 pm.

Wave heights on our outer waters are expected to be around 5
feet due to the residual onshore flow.

There should be a lull early tonight. Low pressure off the
coasts of delaware and new jersey tonight should strengthen as
it moves northeastward on Wednesday. Wind speeds and wave
heights are forecast to increase gradually from late tonight
into Wednesday.

Outlook...

wed night through Thursday: SCA conditions on the ocean with sub-sca
across delaware bay. Fair weather.

Thursday night: SCA conditions diminishing. Fair weather.

Friday through Saturday: sub-sca conditions. Fair weather.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 11 am est Wednesday for paz054-055.

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est Wednesday for paz062.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Wednesday for paz060-
061.

Winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to 7 am est
Wednesday for paz101-103-105.

Nj... Winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to noon est
Wednesday for njz008>010.

Winter storm warning until 11 am est Wednesday for njz001.

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est Wednesday for njz007.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz451>455.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Klein
short term... Klein
long term... O'hara
aviation... Iovino o'hara klein
marine... Iovino o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi47 min 43°F6 ft
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi87 min ESE 9.7 G 14 37°F 42°F5 ft1030.5 hPa (-2.0)34°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 34 mi47 min SE 5.1 G 7 37°F 33°F1031.2 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 37 mi47 min ENE 8 40°F 1030 hPa31°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi47 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 41°F 32°F1030.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi47 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 41°F 32°F1029.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi47 min 37°F 33°F1030.4 hPa
MHRN6 46 mi47 min E 5.1 G 5.1
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 47 mi47 min 37°F 34°F1030.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 47 mi47 min E 1 G 1.9 35°F 1031.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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NE9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi21 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F33°F79%1031 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ14 mi21 minESE 610.00 miOvercast39°F33°F79%1031.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi77 minSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F32°F73%1029.6 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NE9NE7E6NE7NE7NE7NE5NE5NE4CalmN3N5N4N6N4CalmCalmCalmE5SE64E6SE8
1 day agoN8N7N6CalmCalmNE3N8N7N6N6N8N8--N6N8N8N8N6NE10E11
G17
E12E10NE13--
2 days agoNW11
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NW10NW10NW10NW10NW9NW9N9N10N11
G18
N12NW8N10N11

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Beach, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Ocean Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:35 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM EST     0.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:16 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:52 PM EST     0.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.20.10.1000.10.20.30.30.40.40.30.30.20.10-0-00.10.20.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:02 AM EST     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:34 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:23 AM EST     2.28 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:38 PM EST     -2.65 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:02 PM EST     1.68 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:11 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-2-1.7-0.70.51.62.22.21.60.8-0.1-1-1.8-2.5-2.6-1.9-0.80.41.31.71.50.90.2-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.