Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavallette, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:11PM Thursday October 19, 2017 11:21 PM EDT (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 6:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 823 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 823 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will move through our region tonight into Friday morning. High pressure located west of our area will gradually build eastward through the end of the week. A cold front with several waves of low pressure will approach our region on Tuesday and slowly move east through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavallette , NJ
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location: 39.98, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200022
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
822 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move through our region tonight into Friday
morning. High pressure located west of our area will gradually
build eastward through the end of the week. A cold front with
several waves of low pressure will approach our region on
Tuesday and slowly move east through the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A cold front is making progress into western ny pa as of 23z,
while pressure falls in advance of this boundary are maintaining
a pre-frontal trough to the lee of the appalachians. This front
will continue moving east and through our region overnight into
early Friday morning. A dry frontal passage is expected with
some high clouds associated with the 250 hpa jet lifting to our
north.

While some low-level mixing will occur in association with the
frontal passage, it should we weak enough for some of the more
sheltered locations to decouple. Therefore, we have maintained
patchy fog in the normally more prone locals. In fact, the
boundary layer has decoupled more quickly this evening, with
temperatures falling faster than expected, especially in the
pine barrens. We have adjusted hourly temperatures accordingly,
but expect them to level out, so the low temperature forecast
remains in tact.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
The cold front will move off the mid-atlantic coast during the
morning. The center of the surface high will shift northward along
the appalachian spine during the day.

Minimal cold-air advection behind the front will be offset by
warming from downsloping winds off the mountains and strong solar
heating. The net result will be high temperatures that are similar
to today- upper 60s across the higher terrain and low to mid 70s
elsewhere.

The pressure gradient between the departing cold front and high
pressure to our west will produce a temperate northwest breeze
around 10 mph with gusts 15-20 mph.

There are some fire weather concerns for tomorrow with drier air
arriving in wake of fropa. See fire weather section below for
details.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Friday night through Monday: high pressure will gradually build
eastward into the region later this week then move offshore by the
early part of next week. This will continue the already dry and warm
pattern in place. The blend of met mav along with ensemble mean
guidance will likely be too low with afternoon high temperatures
each of these days. Highs have a decent shot to reach well into the
70's with plenty of sunshine each day. Overnight lows will
generally bottom out in the 40's and 50's. Winds will also be
light till the high pressure system shifts offshore on Monday,
when winds become more southerly and increase a bit.

Monday night through Thursday:
a cold front with several waves of low pressure will slowly move
eastward across the ohio valley toward and then through our region
throughout most of next week. A fairly strong ridge in the mid-
levels is expected to be in place across the north atlantic
which will have the potential to really slow the eastward
progression of the front.

Ensemble spread on timing is fairly high in this time period.

However, the general idea is for a strong LLJ and southerly
advection to usher in moisture and increase winds even further ahead
of the front. Gusts have the potential to reach 30 mph as well. Much
needed rain will then occur ahead of the frontal passage. If this
front checks up or stalls, additional areas of low pressure
could keep rain going through the end of the forecast period.

Right now, the GFS is likely falling into a typical progressive
bias while the ECMWF cmc may still be slow with the frontal
passage. Rain shower chances extend through Tuesday and
Wednesday given the uncertainty.

Temperatures are also uncertain as well. Current thinking is to be
slightly slower than the ensemble mean with the frontal timing, we
trended a little warmer through the middle of week. High
temperatures in the 60's and 70's are still expected with warmer
lows in the 50's and 60's. Winds will likely become westerly and
decrease after the frontal passage.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr through Friday. A wind shift from SW to NW is expected to
occur late tonight as a cold front moves through, with speeds
around 5 knots or less. Winds increase again Friday morning to
around 10 kt with some gusts of 15-20 kt.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday night:VFR. Winds variable and under 10
knots till Monday then southerly with gusts reaching 15 knots on
Monday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: sub-vfr with shower chances increasing
throughout the day. Southerly winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30
knots. A windy period is likely but uncertainty exists with the
timing.

Marine
A wind shift from SW to NW is expected late tonight early
Friday morning and will accompany a fropa. Wind speeds 10-15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt are expected, gradually decreasing during
Friday afternoon. Seas of 3-4 ft can be expected in the coastal
waters and 2 ft or less in the delaware bay with a longer
period (9- 10 sec) sely swell.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday night: seas and winds will stay well
under SCA criteria with seas of only a few feet. Winds will generally
be under 10 knots till Monday then increase from the south.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: southerly SCA gusts with seas building
over five feet by Tuesday night. Current forecast may be a little
aggressive in building seas given southerly flow, but higher than
normal timing uncertainty.

Fire weather
Northwest flow will advect dry air into the region behind a cold
front on Friday. These winds will be somewhat breezy (10-15 mph with
peak gusts to 20 mph), especially across NE pa and N nj. Rh values
may bottom out in the lower to middle 30s by the afternoon.

Additionally, fine fuels are dry (below 10 percent) across the
region. These conditions could potentially support an enhanced risk
for the spread of wildfires by the late morning or afternoon. A
special weather statement may need to be issued on the overnight
shift for locations north of the mason-dixon line.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Franck gaines
near term... Franck klein
short term... Klein
long term... Gaines
aviation... Franck gaines klein
marine... Franck gaines klein
fire weather...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi141 min 66°F4 ft
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi91 min SW 18 G 21 65°F 65°F4 ft1018.6 hPa (+0.5)55°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 34 mi51 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 61°F 64°F1019.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 37 mi51 min SSW 4.1 54°F 1020 hPa52°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi51 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 63°F1020.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi51 min W 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 65°F1019.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi51 min 62°F 66°F1018.9 hPa
MHRN6 46 mi51 min SW 9.9 G 14
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 47 mi51 min 63°F 65°F1020.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 47 mi51 min WSW 11 G 13 63°F 1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi25 minN 010.00 mi47°F44°F90%1021 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ14 mi25 minSW 610.00 miFair55°F50°F83%1020.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi81 minSSW 310.00 miFair53°F50°F89%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW9SW9SW12SW9W11SW10
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1 day agoW3CalmSW3CalmCalmSW3CalmW5SW3W6W7W7W5NW745SW8W6SW3CalmS3SW4CalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Beach, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Ocean Beach
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Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:25 PM EDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:02 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.30.20.10.1-0-00.10.20.30.40.50.50.40.30.20.10-000.10.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:01 AM EDT     -2.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     2.57 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:23 PM EDT     -2.92 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     2.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-2.5-2.9-2.5-1.30.21.72.52.41.80.9-0.2-1.3-2.2-2.9-2.7-1.8-0.41.12.22.421.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.