Sunday, December10, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavallette, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:33PM Sunday December 10, 2017 7:21 PM EST (00:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:29AMMoonset 1:37PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 612 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Monday...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers late.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 612 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Weak low pressure will pass by well to our north tonight, followed by high pressure on Monday. A stronger low will also pass by to the north on Tuesday. The associated cold front will usher in very cold air for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another weak low may cross the area on Thursday or Friday, followed by high pressure and more moderate temperatures heading into next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavallette , NJ
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location: 39.98, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 102336
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
636 pm est Sun dec 10 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will pass by well to our north tonight,
followed by high pressure on Monday. A stronger low will also
pass by to the north on Tuesday. The associated cold front will
usher in very cold air for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another
weak low may cross the area on Thursday or Friday, followed by
high pressure and more moderate temperatures heading into next
weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Cloudiness will increase tonight ahead of a stout mid- level
shortwave and accompanying surface trough. Deeper columnar
moisture should be confined from the lehigh valley and southern
poconos in pa eastward into northern nj. There will be
sufficient lift for the development of precip, but it's expected
to be spotty and light. With the mid and upper levels saturated
with respect to ice, and the atmosphere at or below freezing,
snow will be the primary precip type. The fast movement of this
system gives the aforementioned area a 3-5 hour window for some
spotty, light snowfall. Snow ratios are 10-12:1 and only
expecting up to several hundredths of an inch of qpf, so a
dusting to a half inch is possible, generally from sussex county
nj southwestward into berks county pa. Cannot rule out isolated
one inch amount amounts, especially the southern poconos.

Given the expectation of a potentially bigger event (see long term
section below), the snowfall map on our website remains centered on
that event, and does not reflect any accumulation whatsoever for
tonight. Tonight's snowfall expectations are far short of advisory
criteria. Therefore it will be highlighted in the hwo, and if need
be, handled with a special weather statement (sps). We held off on
issuing a sps for now, given some uncertainty in the temporal and
spatial extent of the event.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Any snow showers are expected to wrap up by sunrise. Gradual
clearing will take place from west to east during the morning,
with additional stratocumulus cloud development during the
afternoon, especially northwest of the fall line. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer compared to Sunday, but still below
average. In addition, the airmass will be more stable, so
westerly wind gusts will be capped around 15 mph.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
The extended forecast period features a continuing large- scale
trof over the eastern uw, although the trof is forecast to
become much flatter toward the end of the week and into next
weekend. There will be a number of shortwv trofs rotating more
or less rapidly through the main trof, with associated surface
lows and frontal systems. Timing of the shortwaves becomes more
doubtful at longer ranges. Also, their rapid movement means
limited access to moisture and precip production.

One of the more potent systems is forecast to approach the mid-
atlantic Monday night and then move through the area on Tuesday. Low
pressure is forecast to intensify as it moves past to the north into
new england, and its associated very strong cold front will cross
the area on Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the front Monday night into
Tuesday morning, a broad area of UVV is forecast to develop, likely
leading to some light precip. P-type is an issue, with mostly snow
over the poconos and lehigh valley, but a mixed bag or just rain
farther S e. 2 to 3 inches of snow could accumulate in the poconos.

All precip will change to snow by late Tuesday as cold air blasts in.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be dominated by very
gusty NW winds and strong caa, as the deepening surface low moves
slowly NE through new england and into canada. Wind chills in the
teens and single digits are likely.

A clipper type system is expected to pass near the mid_atlantic
sometime thu-fri, although the timing and track are rather uncertain
at this time. This system could bring some light snow to the area,
as temperatures are forecast to remain quite cold.

Current guidance suggests a moderating temperature trend for next
weekend with temps perhaps returning to near normal.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Potential for a brief period of MVFR at abe and ttn due to
lower ceilings, especially in any snow showers, late tonight.

Elsewhere,VFR. Winds west-southwest AOB 10 kts. Confidence: average.

Monday...VFR. Southwest winds 10g15 kts. Confidence: above average.

Outlook...

Monday night... Sub-vfr conditions possible, especially north of
phl, with a wintry mix of precipitation possible. Winds
generally light and predominantly southerly. Low confidence.

Tuesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible, especially early in the
day, with wintry mix possible generally north of phl. Winds
becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts
after cold frontal passage. Confidence medium in general
evolution but low on timing.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... GenerallyVFR with very strong
west to northwest winds likely. Speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts
to 40 kts possible. Medium confidence.

Thursday and Friday... GenerallyVFR but local MVFR possible in
rain or snow showers. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 kts with
potentially higher gusts. Medium confidence.

Marine
Sca continues through 6am Monday for the atlantic coastal
waters. Wind gusts right around 25 kt are expected to continue
through at least some of the night.

On the delaware bay, winds have already dropped below 25 kt, so
the SCA was allowed to expire at 5 pm.

Both winds and seas are expected to subside on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... Generally sub-sca conditions Monday
night, but advisory conditions likely by Tuesday as southwest
winds increase and seas build. After cold frontal passage late
on Tuesday, winds will switch to west or northwest and become
quite strong.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Gale-force west or northwest winds
quite probable.

Wednesday night... Residual gale conditions becoming advisory-
level conditions during this period.

Thursday and Friday... Sub-advisory conditions are forecast at
this time.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Monday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Franck
short term... Franck
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc franck
marine... Amc franck johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi52 min 52°F4 ft
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi152 min W 21 G 27 40°F 52°F4 ft1014.3 hPa (+1.9)26°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 34 mi52 min WSW 12 G 15 37°F 45°F1016.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 37 mi52 min SSW 2.9 30°F 1017 hPa25°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi52 min W 6 G 8 37°F 40°F1016.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi52 min WSW 8.9 G 11 37°F 42°F1016.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi52 min 35°F 47°F1015.8 hPa
MHRN6 46 mi52 min SW 7 G 11
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 47 mi52 min 36°F 47°F1018.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 47 mi52 min SW 9.9 G 12 37°F 1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi26 minSW 410.00 miFair27°F25°F92%1018 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ14 mi26 minS 510.00 miFair31°F24°F76%1017.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi82 minN 09.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F27°F88%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW6NW8NW7NW6W8W8W8W6W7W8W8W6W8W9W10W11W9W10W9W5CalmCalmSW4
1 day agoCalmCalmW3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N4N5N6N6N7N6NW6NW6N6N5NW6
2 days agoCalmSW5SW5W6NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW5NW4NW5NW3NW8W7NW7W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Beach, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Ocean Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:53 AM EST     Last Quarter
Sun -- 05:26 AM EST     0.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:56 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:39 PM EST     0.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-000.10.20.30.40.40.30.20.20.1000.10.10.20.30.40.40.30.30.20.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:18 AM EST     2.26 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:53 AM EST     Last Quarter
Sun -- 03:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:20 AM EST     -2.44 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:01 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:35 PM EST     2.26 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:53 PM EST     -2.67 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.22.11.50.6-0.3-1.1-1.8-2.4-2.2-1.3-01.22.12.21.70.90-0.8-1.6-2.3-2.7-2.1-10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.