Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavallette, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:42PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 4:16 AM EST (09:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:28PMMoonset 11:42PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 354 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt this morning. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft late. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain early in the morning, then rain in the late morning and afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 9 to 12 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Rain.
Fri..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 12 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 354 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will gradually build into the region today before moving across to the north of our area tonight. An area of low pressure will develop off of the southeast coast late Wednesday, then track up along the mid atlantic coast Thursday and Thursday night before moving into new england on Friday. High pressure will then return Friday night through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavallette , NJ
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location: 39.98, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 140224
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure is moving into atlantic canada this evening. High
pressure will gradually build in from the west through Wednesday,
before moving across to the north of our area on Wednesday night
and Thursday. An area of low pressure will develop near the
panhandle of florida late Wednesday, then track northeast along
the coast of the mid atlantic Thursday into Thursday night
before heading northeast into atlantic canada Friday. High
pressure will then return later Friday through the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Forecast remains on track as of 9:30 pm. Light precip passing
south of DELMARVA is drying up, and precip chances continue to
diminish over the next couple of hours.

Clouds will gradually start breaking up through the night. A
few flurries could make their way into carbon and monroe but at
this point expect it to generally be dry tonight. Temperatures
will drop to near or below freezing across most of the cwa, but
the winds and clouds will prevent a big plunge in temps, and
also should limit city suburb differences.

Short term Wednesday through 6 am Wednesday
High pressure will be building in from the west on Wednesday
with drying at all levels. Winds will remain a bit gusty as
pressures continue rising but generally expecting gusts no
higher than 20-25 mph. The drying should allow a decent amount
of sunshine, but with strong cold advection, temps will struggle
to rise much, with most of the region having their coldest day
of the season thus far. Many areas will get stuck in the 30s
while warmer areas should reach the lower 40s. The extremes will
be the poconos, where it will likely stay near freezing, and far
southern de nj, where temps may read the middle 40s.

Long term Wednesday through Tuesday
The first winter weather event of the season is gearing up to
impact the mid-atlantic and northeast Thursday through Friday as
a developing nor'easter slides along the coast.

High pressure centered over the eastern great lakes Wednesday
evening will build east overnight, and then parks itself over
new england through the end of the work week. Unusually cold air
will be in place during this time. Meanwhile, 500 mb closed low
over the gulf coast will track east Wednesday night, and
surface low pressure develops and begins to intensify over the
southeast. The surface low will track along the coast Thursday
and Thursday night, will be just south of nyc by Friday morning,
then departs during the day with the 500 mb low following
behind it.

Overrunning precip develops out ahead of the low late Wednesday
night, and some rain and or a wintry mix will move into
southern portions of delmarva. Going through Thursday morning,
with temperatures below freezing for for most of the region,
precip starts out as snow for all but southern de and extreme
southeast nj. Up to an inch of snow will fall across southern nj
and delmarva, and between 1 and 2 inches of snow will fall
along and south of i-78 through midday Thursday before warmer
air surges northward and changes precip to all rain. A prolonged
period of moderate to locally heavy rain at times will then
fall through Friday.

North of i-78, a prolonged period of snow will fall through the
day Thursday. As the warmer air continues to lift to the north,
a shallow layer of below freezing temperatures will remain in
place. 850-750 mb temps will warm to +4c to +5c, and this sets
the stage for a period of freezing rain across the southern
poconos, the lehigh valley, and northern nj Thursday night and
Friday morning. Up to 1 4" of ice is possible for the southern
poconos, and up to 1 10" of ice is possible from along i-78 to
i-80.

Surface low pressure, followed by the 500 mb low, will then
quickly track from nyc to the canadian maritimes on Friday.

Precip tapers off from south to north.

High pressure then builds in from the north and west for the
weekend. Conditions should be dry, and highs will generally
range from the upper 30s in the southern poconos, to the 40s for
most of the region, to the low 50s for southern delmarva.

Some upper levels disturbances may pass through the region for the
start of the new work week. Will carry slight chance low chance pops
for now.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MostlyVFR conditions. There is a small chance for
MVFR ceilings redeveloping, primarily across the lehigh valley
for a brief period around 06z, but the chance is too low to
include in the tafs at this time. Northwest wind 8 to 12 knots
gusting around 18 to 22 knots. High confidence overall, low
confidence on the potential for low clouds late tonight.

Wednesday...VFR expected. Northwest winds continued 10-15 knots
gusts 20-25 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Winds becoming
light and variable, shifting to northeast. High confidence.

Thursday through Friday... Deteriorating conditions through the
day Thursday. Precipitation will overspread the terminals from
south to north with MVFR or lower conditions expected. Precip
may start as snow as far southeast as ilg phl pne ttn, then
shift to fzra pl before going to rain potentially late, though
odds of plain ra at abe rdg are lower. Precip will continue
through Thursday night, gradually ending from south to north
Friday afternoon. Northeast winds around 10 to 20 knots
(strongest towards kacy) with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible
through Thursday night becoming northwest around 10 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots possible on Friday. Wind shear likely
Thursday night into Friday. Low confidence.

Friday night through Sunday... Improving conditions Friday night
with a return toVFR expected to occur late. West to northwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots Saturday, lighter Sunday.

Marine
Low pressure is moving up towards atlantic canada. Winds
northwest for rest of this afternoon and tonight. Wind gusts
will generally range 25 to 30 knots. As a result, a small craft
advisory remains in effect for our coastal waters and for
delaware bay.

Waves on our ocean waters are expected to build to 5 to 7 feet.

Waves on delaware bay should increase to 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions continue through
Wednesday. Northwest winds will diminish later in the day. Seas
are expected to drop below 5 feet Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... Winds diminish as high pressure shifts to the
northeast. Looks like we may drop below small craft advisory for
a time.

Thursday through Friday... Winds and seas will increase
as a coastal storm develops to our south and starts to move up
over our waters. Seas will build on Thursday becoming 6 to 12
feet. East to northeast winds will increase during the day
Thursday, increasing to 20 to 30 knots overnight with higher
gusts. Winds will turn to the northwest on Friday, remaining
around 15 to 25 knots. Gale warnings seem likely for later
Thursday through Friday.

Friday night... Gale force gusts are expected to end before
Friday night but small craft advisory conditions will continue.

The northwest winds will start to diminish overnight and lose
their gustiness by early Saturday morning. Seas are expected to
drop below 5 feet Friday night.

Saturday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected.

Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 to 4 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Wednesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until noon est Wednesday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Meola 99
near term... Johnson mps 99
short term... 99
long term... Mps
aviation... Iovino johnson meola 99
marine... Iovino meola 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi26 min NW 23 G 29 42°F 55°F5 ft1023.4 hPa27°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 34 mi28 min NW 18 G 22 39°F 50°F1024.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 37 mi46 min W 6 37°F 1023 hPa24°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi28 min NW 11 G 15 40°F 45°F1024.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi40 min WNW 7 G 9.9 39°F 45°F1024 hPa
MHRN6 46 mi28 min WNW 9.9 G 16
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi28 min 39°F 51°F1023.6 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 47 mi28 min 42°F 54°F1024.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 47 mi28 min NW 12 G 15 38°F 1024 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi20 minNW 610.00 miOvercast40°F30°F68%1024.7 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ14 mi20 minNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F24°F57%1024.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi76 minNW 510.00 miOvercast42°F30°F65%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE7E4CalmW4W11W8W11W14W12NW13NW15
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1 day ago--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SE3SE4SE8SE5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmNE4NE4NE3NE5NE4
2 days agoW3NW5W4W6NW9N7NW8
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W11W8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Beach, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Ocean Beach
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Wed -- 04:35 AM EST     0.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:36 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:47 PM EST     0.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:41 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:30 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.30.40.30.30.20.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:11 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:14 AM EST     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:34 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:28 AM EST     1.74 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:52 PM EST     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.70.1-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.4-1.3-0.50.41.21.71.71.10.4-0.3-0.9-1.4-1.7-1.8-1.5-0.70.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.