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FXUS61 KPBZ 282342 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 742 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperature is expected through much of the upcoming week while precipitation chances will be mainly focused on Tuesday and Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Overnight temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

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Dry, quiet weather is expected under high pressure. With a lingering warm airmass, above normal temperatures will continue.
Record high minimum temperature could be tied at HLG if the temp stays above 65F before midnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near record high max temperature Monday and high min temperature Tuesday are each possible.
- Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday.

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Eastern CONUS ridging will remain intact Monday as an upper level trough lifts northward through the northern Mississippi River Valley. Warm air aloft and subsidence will cap any convection, keeping dry conditions in place and allowing for plenty of insolation. Near to record high temperatures are in play for most climate sites, with only a deviation toward 75th to 90th percentile temperature to realize new records. This is not out of question as high temperature this past Saturday for most sites ended up above the 90th percentile outcome.

Gradual ridge breakdown will occur Monday night into Tuesday with shortwave movement shunts the ridge axis southeast.
Increase moist advection resulting in higher cloud cover should insulate the region and buoy low temperature Tuesday morning.
Near to record high minimum temperature at most climate sites could result (see climate section).

Variability remains in the strength of the initial wave and presence of a follow-up trough, but either upper level feature is expected to be weak while slowly pushing a weak cold front through the region. Shortwave trough shape/movement will dictate precipitation timing and degree of heating ahead of the cold front; latest trends have a slower progression of these features that keep precipitation chance into Tuesday night. Any severe threat will depend on strength of that passing shortwave. It still appears that the severe threat will be limited given excessive cloud cover and residual warm air aloft acting to cap upward momentum (CAPE values likely to be less than 500 J/kg).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern continues through the long term with above-average temperatures favored.

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High pressure and ridging are likely to develop behind the exiting shortwave Wednesday, though the degree of height rises remain uncertain. Further re-establishment of the eastern CONUS ridge (and central plains trough) will drive area temperature well above normal again both Wednesday and Thursday while maintaining dry weather.

Ensembles favor upper level trough movement through the Great Lakes region Friday into the weekend that would push the ridge axis southeast and introduce widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. Timing of said pattern shift (which will play role in precipitation timing and temperature trends Friday into Saturday).

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR will prevail through the TAF period under a lingering ridge. Skies will remain mostly clear through Monday, with clouds increasing Monday night ahead of a cold front.

Southerly wind remains light overnight, with gusts to 15-20 kts Monday afternoon as winds back southwesterly.

Outlook
Restrictions will likely return in showers and possible thunderstorms on Tuesday with a crossing cold front. VFR returns Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure.

CLIMATE
Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Monday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

Record High Year Record Low Year Pittsburgh 88 (1899) 65 (1974)
Wheeling 86* (1942) 64 (1914)
Morgantown 91 (1899) 67 (1914)
New Philadelphia 90 (1986) 64 (1974)
Zanesville 90 (1899) 67 (1914)
Dubois 80* (1970) 61* (1974)

Here is a table of the record low temperatures Tuesday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

Record Low Year Pittsburgh 69 (1899)
Wheeling 58* (1911)
Morgantown 66 (1910)
New Philadelphia 63 (1991)
Zanesville 69 (1910)
Dubois 60* (1970)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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