Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 12:49 AM   Moonset 9:38 AM

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FXUS63 KGID 292327 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence is low (around 20%) on thunderstorm occurrence within the forecast area on Tuesday, but storms may become strong to severe if they develop during the afternoon.

- There is a better chance (up to 60%) of thunderstorms on Wednesday and up to a 90% chance Wednesday night. These storms may become severe.

- High temperatures will be in the 60s to 80s and low temperatures will be in the 30s to 50s across the forecast area.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is centered over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Winds are mostly out of the southwest across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will warm up into the upper 60s to upper 70s with mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s with southerly winds and increasing clouds.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

The previously mentioned upper trough will lift northward over Canada on Tuesday with another upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains. This trough will expand southward over Nebraska with a cold front moving into the area on Tuesday. Temperatures ahead of the front are expected to warm up into the lower 70s to mid 80s. Some showers will be possible (up to near 30% chance) Tuesday morning for mainly areas along and north of the Nebraska Tri-Cities area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours along the cold front. There is some uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact the eastern edges of the local forecast area or develop completely east of the area. These storms could be strong to severe if they were to impact eastern portions of the area. Low temperatures are expected to cool into the lower 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night with easterly winds.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (up to around a 40% chance) Wednesday morning as an upper disturbance moves over the area. Rain and storms are expected to continue into the afternoon hours (up to near a 60% chance) as an upper trough to the west begins to move over the region. Severe storms will be possible (around a 40% chance) late Wednesday afternoon into the evening mainly across north central Kansas along the leading edge of a frontal boundary. A dryline is expected to develop across southwest Kansas which may further initiate storm development across central Kansas. High Temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s across much of south central and central Nebraska to the upper 70s across portions of north central Kansas. The NAM12 is showing a surface low moving into south central Nebraska Wednesday evening/night with storm development to the northwest of this feature. Storms may develop into a line and move eastward across the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Low temperatures Wednesday night are expected to be a little warmer than the previous night.

Thursday through Sunday night...

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on Thursday with surface high pressure across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Rain and storms are expected to move out of the area during the day on Thursday. High temperatures will range from the low 60s to low 70s. Light winds with a surface high are expected to be across the area Thursday night allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Southerly winds are expected across the area on Friday with a surface high centered across Missouri and Iowa. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. An upper trough moving over the northern and central Plains is expected to bring in a cold front beginning on Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the 40s with highs on Saturday in the 60s and 70s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be similar or slightly warmer than the previous night. Winds will increase out of the south on Sunday with temperatures warming up into the 70s.
Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Dry weather expected for this TAF period, and do have VFR conditions going, though confidence in that is a little lower in the early morning-midday Tuesday time frame with the arrival/passage of a frontal boundary. Expecting light winds this evening turning more southerly with time overnight...and models continue to show the potential for marginal LLWS at both terminals, so that mention remains. Near/just after sunrise, winds are expected turn more southwesterly...then westerly around mid-late morning...then northwesterly early afternoon as that front passes. Gusts of 25-30 MPH will be possible with/behind that frontal passage.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.

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