Thursday, November15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Hendley, NE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:19PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:23 PM CST (21:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:49PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hendley, NE
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Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE
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Fxus63 kgid 152020
area forecast discussion
national weather service hastings ne
220 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018

Short term (this evening through Friday daytime)
issued at 219 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018
focusing solely on these next 24 hours in this section, the main
focus remains squarely on continued seasonably-mild slightly above
normal daytime temps before the bottom drops out Saturday (as
covered in the long term section below). In short, highs for
Friday were nudged up slightly (but still a touch cooler than
today), as were wind speeds, as it will again be another quite-
breezy day, only this time out of the south-southwest.

Taking a look at the current recent weather situation as of 2pm:
although there have certainly been no "major" surprises today, if
anything, the deep mixing behind a pronounced passing surface
trough weak cold front (along with widespread sunshine) has
promoted high temperatures generally 1-4 degrees warmer than
early-am expectations, with most places on track to see official
highs in the 60-64 range. Wind-wise, it's certainly been quite-
breezy to somewhat windy, and kudos to overnight shift for ramping
up speeds, as most places have seen sustained north-northwest speeds
solidly 15-25 mph gusts 20-35 mph, with the overall-highest
speeds north- northwest and lowest south- southeast, where the
trough axis will pack a later lesser punch (our highest official
gust so far was 39 mph at ord airport). Unfortunately, this combo
of gusty winds and slightly-warmer-than-expected temps has
actually pushed mainly parts of the northern western coverage area
(cwa) into likely our first bout of marginally "near critical"
fire weather conditions this season (defined locally as the
overlap of gusts 20+ mph relative humidity 25-percent-or less).

Fortunately, rh values look to remain safely about outright-
critical criteria of 20 percent-or-less, and given the
brief marginal nature of the ongoing near-critical, will opt to
exclude any fire mention from the hazardous weather outlook
(hwogid). In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
imagery and short term model data reveals pronounced west-
northwest flow over our region, as we remain well-removed from any
wintry impacts associated with a powerful low pressure system
moving into the oh valley region, and a weaker shortwave trough
punching southeast across the dakotas mn.

Now looking ahead forecast-wise through the next 24 hours...

this evening tonight:
in short, a very quiet seasonably-chilly mid-november night, with
only a very limited amount of thin high level clouds at most. The
gusty winds of this afternoon will quickly subside to 10 mph-or-
less by sunset. In the presence of weak high pressure, breezes
overnight will only average 5-10 mph at most, with direction
transitioning from more northerly to more west-southwesterly with
time. Made very little change to low temps, which should hold up
perhaps just a touch higher than last night most areas, and are
aimed mid-upper 20s most areas, with any low 20s most favored in
typical colder areas such as valley greeley counties.

Friday daytime:
in many ways, fairly similar to today, except that breezy winds
will be out of the south-southwest, high temps will probably be
just a touch cooler, and there should be a bit more high level
cloud cover (especially during the afternoon). Getting into more
details, in the mid-upper levels, our flow remains from the west-
northwest, but the approaching disturbance for Saturday will only
reach sd by sunset. Along those same lines, the sharp arctic cold
front will also remain north of our CWA through sunset. At the
surface, pressure falls ahead of the approaching wave cold front
will promote breezy south-southwest winds, with speeds raised
roughly 5 mph from previous forecast. Specifically, the late
morning-afternoon should feature widespread sustained speeds 15-20
mph gusts up to around 30 mph. Temp-wise, and based on today
slightly-exceeding expectations, nudged up highs 1-2 degrees from
previous forecast. This still results in slightly-cooler readings
than today, but now has most places aimed into the 56-61 range
(warmest far west coolest far east). As mentioned, skies should
still average mostly sunny for the day as a whole, but as the
afternoon wears on there will probably be a modest increase in
high level cirrus, making for a partly to perhaps mostly cloudy
finish to the day (especially north). Unlike today, rh values are
expected to remain safely above 25 percent, instead bottoming out
closer to 30 percent far west.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 219 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018
Saturday into Saturday night continues to be the main period of
concern in the long term period, with snow chances still in the
forecast. Friday night remains day, models in good agreement showing
upper level flow continuing to turn more zonal in nature. It looks
like the CWA is going to be set up in the middle of a couple area of
precipitation Friday night, with the main disturbance still off to
our west and another that will focus better precip chances east of
the mo river. Through the first half of the day on Saturday, the 12z
ecmwf gem have come around closer to what the nam GFS had been
showing, with not a whole heck of a lot going on across our
cwa... And the superblend pops backed things off for all but the far
western fringes. Models in good agreement showing the main push of
the upper level wave coming late in the day and through Saturday
night. At this point, the better chances for any accumulating show
still look to be across the western and southern portions of the
cwa. Accumulations still looking to be on the lighter side,
currently forecast right around a half inch. Saturday is just not
going to be a pleasant day. Even for areas that don't see any little
snow, gusty north winds will be in place behind the passing cold
front... Gusts over 30 mph will be possible, ESP late Fri night into
Saturday morning. Not expecting much improvement in temperatures
during the daytime hours, with highs prob occurring early on in the

The remainder of the long term period Sunday through Wednesday night
remains dry, and overall no notable changes were made. In the wake
of this system moving through on Saturday, models are in good
agreement showing upper level northwesterly flow being quick to
build in from the west on Sunday. Looks to be little change in that
flow through mid-week, as high pressure ridging extends north
through the western conus, while broad troughing affects the east.

Expecting a gradual warming trend in temperatures each day, with
30s 40s on Sunday, getting to the lower mid 50s by Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 18z kgri kear tafs through 18z Friday)
issued at 1152 am cst Thu nov 15 2018
general overview:
confidence is very high inVFR ceiling visibility and
precipitation-free weather throughout, with only very limited
high-level cloud cover at most. That leaves shifting surface winds
as the main issue, with the overall-strongest breezes of the
period occurring this afternoon.

Wind details:
this afternoon, deep mixing behind a surface trough will promote
several hours of sustained speeds 15-20kt gusts to around 25kt
(and perhaps slightly higher). These speeds will quickly ease down
to around 10kt by sunset, with a fairly light westerly breeze
prevailing overnight. By late Friday morning, winds will again
increase out of the south-southwest with sustained speeds of
12+kt. Although not explicitly reflected in this TAF issuance,
gusts by the very end of the period by 18z could be 20+kt.

Gid watches warnings advisories
Ne... None.

Ks... None.

Short term... Pfannkuch
long term... Adp
aviation... Pfannkuch

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McCook, McCook Municipal Airport, NE35 mi31 minN 1210.00 miFair64°F27°F25%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from MCK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS8S4S4S6W5SW7W6SW6SW7W10W4W11W11W11W12W9W8W11W8NW12N13N17
1 day agoW6SW4S3S5SW8SW8W7W6SW7SW8W7W8SW6W7W6W9W9W7W6W9W6W6W8SW7
2 days agoN13N7N4N5N5SW6W5W4W6W5SW4W8W7W8SW4W6W5W5W8SW5SW7W8W10W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Hastings, NE (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Island, NE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.