Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 4:08 AM   Moonset 5:03 PM

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FXUS63 KGID 051750 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1250 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening. All forms of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes. Thunderstorms may initially develop as supercells across our western zones and then become more linear and more widespread as they track east across our eastern zones.

- Temperatures will be pretty steady over the 7 day forecast period, with highs expected to be in the 60s and 70s.

- While conditions will be mostly dry Tuesday through early next weekend, there will be a few chances for showers and thunderstorms, primarily Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today...

Surface high pressure departing to the east and an upper level ridge overhead will keep conditions dry today. Temperatures will be seasonably warm with highs in the mid- to upper 60s across the area. As the area of high pressure moves east this afternoon, the pressure gradient will tighten ahead of our next weather system and SSE winds will increase, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected. As the front gets closer tonight and into Monday morning, these winds will increase further and gusts increasing to 25-35 mph after midnight (windiest west of Highway 281).

Monday...

This is the next chance for severe weather across the area.
There is a chance (30-40%) of a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning but if those do occur, that will not be the main event. With the entire area covered by a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) and much of the area in an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening, it will be very important to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. All forms of severe weather will be possible, including strong straight-line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Latest model guidance indicates that thunderstorms will begin to develop early in the afternoon over the western portions of the forecast area or just to the west of the forecast area early Monday afternoon (most likely around 2PM BUT could be as early as noon). These will be firing up just east of a dryline feature set up over the area, most likely initially as supercells. As a cold front moves over the area this system is expected to evolve into a linear system at some point (hard to determine exactly how quickly that transition occurs). Some models have this occurring late afternoon but some have this occurring very quickly after storm initiation. CAPE values are expected to be in the 1500-2500 J/kg range over our forecast area with ample deep layer shear and good storm-relative helicity from the surface all the way up to 6km vertically, which reinforces the potential for tornadoes and very large hail, with an increasing wind threat as this develops into a line of storms Monday afternoon. For the tri-cites area, model guidance continues to indicate that these storms will move through between 2 and 5 PM. The severe weather threat will increase as we get later into the day, favoring the tri-cities as well as areas east and southeast of the tri-cities with the worse of the severe weather.

This is a good pattern for a Plains severe weather outbreak, but favoring Kansas and Oklahoma with the worse of it rather than Nebraska. The main limiting factor will be how much sun we see after the potential for those early morning showers/storms (too little sun will inhibit any increase in instability and delay storm initiation), so there is still that uncertainty with this potential severe weather outbreak.

Tuesday through Saturday...

This will be an overall drier period with most areas seeing little precipitation. We do have some small POPs in the forecast, mainly Tuesday night/Wed morning and again Thursday evening, but have pretty low confidence in either of these occurring and precipitation should be isolated if it does occur.
Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

We'll see scattered low to mid clouds today, but should remain VFR through at least most of the evening hours. However, we do expect increasing low clouds after midnight including IFR ceilings that could persist through a majority of Monday morning. There also could be a few sprinkles or vicinity rain shower Monday morning, with the better chance for thunderstorms holding off until Monday afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.

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