Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millersville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:44PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:36 PM EST (02:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 5:27AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 920 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
.gale warning in effect from Monday morning through Monday afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect Monday evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 1 ft... Building to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow and freezing rain or sleet.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain or sleet or freezing rain.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain. A chance of snow through the night.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain. A chance of snow through the night.
ANZ500 920 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will pass through the waters tonight before moving offshore Monday. High pressure will return Monday night and Tuesday before stronger low pressure approaches from the southwest, possibly redeveloping offshore, during the middle portion of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millersville , PA
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location: 40, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 180044
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
744 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
A fast flow aloft will keep the weather active through the week.

The first weak disturbance will move across the region tonight.

A stronger storm will approach for the middle of the week. A
third storm is possible next Sunday.

Near term through Monday
The weak surface low is over the border between oh and WV as of
7pm. Models are in good agreement tracking the storm through
northern pa overnight with the shield of light warm-advection
mixed precipitation moving smartly through the cwa. The
steadiest precip will be through about midnight, tapering off to
just spotty light rain freezing rain or even just areas of
drizzle freezing drizzle between about 06-09z 1am-4am.

The entire region is under a winter weather advisory for the
light wintry mix. The best chance for mainly snow will be north
of i-80. South of the interstate it will be a pig's breakfast of
precipitation types, but not an especially impressive amount of
any one thing. The presence of any ice will of course make
travel on untreated roads hazardous, and we don't expect any
appreciable warming during the overnight.

The QPF is not very heavy, but the duration of the snow in the
north will likely lead to 2-4 inches there before things taper
off. Elsewhere, the sleet freezing rain mix will make for a
mess - especially on untreated surfaces. The threat of freezing
rain drizzle is highest over the laurels. But with QPF expected
to be < 0.25", ice accums will likely not get into warning
amounts.

Temps will remain very constant overnight... Near freezing in
much of the area south of i-80. The laurels and SE could rise
above freezing later in the storm, but the E SE flow in place
for most of the night doesn't give up the cold air very easily.

Short term Monday night
As the low moves into ny, a small low may form over the
delmarva, and briefly hang precip up in the se. But, temps will
also be warming after daybreak, and much of the area will be out
of the threat of fzdz by 8-10 am. The temps will get cold
enough over the NW half to make anything left over into snow
showers. The downslope in the wake of the low will make it mild
in the se, and help to break up the clouds there. The west wind
could gust to 30 mph in the southern tier in the afternoon.

Surface high pressure expands into the region Monday night. Once
breezy winds die down, temps will fall into the single digits
north of i-80, and in the teens 20s elsewhere.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Main change to the package was to take out snow for Tuesday
evening, to fit in better with others. Also ridge still over
the area and models show little if any QPF into the area before
12z Wednesday.

For wed, low pressure lifting northeast across the great lakes
will result in some snow, given warm advection. By late morning
and early afternoon, looks like sleet and freezing rain would
mix with the snow. This based on thickness coming up fast, as
the system is weaker and faster than the one we had last week.

Thus did not hit the snow real hard, and did not want to go too
high on ice. This in part due to QPF on NAM across the far south
was looking too high. Other models have the .25 inch line just
brushing the far south. Hard to see much more than .25 in any 6
hour period. The NAM had .75 inches across the south in a 6
hour window.

This event looks like the event last week, most of the precipitation
would be east of the area by midnight.

For most of the period from Thursday into at least early Saturday,
not a lot going on. I did cut back on pops and weather where i
could. Temperatures borderline, so used a mix of rain and snow.

Main question is if a deep low will form and lift across the
lower great lakes on Sunday. For now, went close to the
superblend. Ec and GFS runs not close. GFS has much weaker
systems. If ec was to verify, Monday would be the first real
windy day of the late winter, early spring season.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
Expect deteriorating conditions this evening, as an approaching
storm spreads a light wintry mix and lowering CIGS into the
region. Light snow will quickly reduce visibilities to between 1-2sm
over northern pa early this evening. Further south, mixed precip
will result in better visibility, but model data supports
widespread ifr CIGS by around midnight. Precipitation will taper
off late tonight. However, model output supports lingering low
cigs through around dawn.

Expect rapid improvement between 10z-14z, as the storm system
exits the area and is followed by a drier westerly flow. Model
soundings indicate there will be lingering MVFR stratocu across
the mountains of central pa, while downsloping flow yields a
return toVFR conditions in the susquehanna valley from kipt
south through kmdt klns. A tight pressure gradient behind the
departing storm will produce gusty west-northwest winds. Bufkit
soundings support gusts ranging from around 20kts over the
northwest mountains (kbfd) to between 30-35kts over southeast pa
(kmdt klns).

Outlook...

tue... No sig wx expected.

Wed... Wintry mix likely.

Thu... Am wintry mix low CIGS possible.

Fri... No sig wx expected.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Monday for paz004>006-
010>012-037-041-042.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for paz017>019-
024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

Synopsis... La corte martin
near term... La corte rxr
short term... Dangelo rxr
long term... Martin
aviation... Fitzgerald


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi43 min Calm G 4.1 35°F 38°F1014.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 52 mi43 min WSW 1 G 2.9 35°F 38°F1014.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 52 mi43 min SSE 6 G 8.9 34°F 34°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA10 mi44 minSSE 38.00 miLight Rain34°F28°F82%1014.6 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA24 mi1.7 hrsSE 610.00 miOvercast34°F23°F64%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7N6NE7NE6N5NE5CalmCalmCalmE4E6E6E10S4E4SE11S7S7S6S7SE6SE6SE3
1 day agoNW9NW10NW11NW10NW14NW13NW11NW13NW10NW10NW9NW10N12N10NW9NW10N9N11N8N11N10NW6NW6NW4
2 days agoSE6SE7SE9S8SE8SE6CalmE6CalmS5SW3S9SW8SW10SW9SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Sun -- 04:09 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:00 AM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:09 PM EST     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:57 PM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.80.40.1-00.10.61.11.41.20.90.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.6-0.10.81.72.32.52.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:40 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:23 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:41 PM EST     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:04 PM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.30-00.20.611.110.80.4-0-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.40.10.81.522.121.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.