Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 3:32 AM   Moonset 4:24 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 734 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Today - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning. Rain or areas of drizzle this morning, then rain likely this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon night - W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 734 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into tonight for portions of the waters. Additional small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters by the middle of the week.

FXUS61 KCTP 051134 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 734 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Rain tapers to showers to close out the first weekend of May -Warmer and drier on Monday; increasingly unsettled Tue-Fri -Late week cooling trend continues through Mother's Day weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Soggy start today with 850mb jet driving light/mdt rain from southwest to northeast across CPA. Expect the steadier rain to shift to the east with time giving way to a more showery regime for later today through tonight. CAD pattern with a moist east southeast upslope flow and ridgetop fog should reign supreme over the northeastern quadrant of the CWA with highs stuck in the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile, it looks like the western and southwestern portions of the area will break into the warm sector with cloud breaks allowing temps to reach the 65-70F range. The warmer temps will fuel enough CAPE to mention a t-storm mainly along/west of US219 with a MRGL SWO (1/5) from the SPC still clipping Warren County.

Rather mild tonight as a weak cold front presses southeast from Lake Erie. Some lingering showers are possible especially near the front. Guidance remains bullish on low clouds and fog development overnight which may become locally dense in spots into early Monday morning. Fcst lows are +10-15F above climo for early May in the low 50s to near 60F.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A.M. low clouds and fog should give way to some sun by Monday afternoon especially across the northern half of CPA as high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes directs drier/lower pwat air into the region. Following a rather cool and damp weekend, temperatures are forecast to trend much warmer with fcst maxes getting back into the 70-80F range. The aforementioned frontal boundary settling near the MD line will maintain a low chance of showers/t-storms over the southern tier into Monday night.
Expect some fog again Monday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in the southern tier.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upper level ridging over PA indicates warm and generally dry conditions are likely Tuesday. However, a warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley could result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties. The bulk of medium range guidance supports a very warm Wednesday with scattered convection, as the area briefly breaks into the warm sector south of a weak low tracking across upstate NY. A round of convection may accompany the trailing cold front. Ensemble mean pre-frontal 850mb temps around 16C suggests max temps as high as the mid to upper 80s are possible over the Lower Susq Valley.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms appears to be on Thursday associated with a deepening upstream trough and wave of low pressure riding along the stalled cold front just south of PA. The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area by Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support scattered, diurnally-driven convection Friday and Saturday, along with a downward trend in temperatures. EPS mean 850mb temps by Saturday are only around 3C, which is supportive of highs ranging from just the mid 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Little improvement in flying conditions is expected over most of Central PA today, as a moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic persists. However, model soundings indicate some modest improvement is possible late in the day along and west of the spine of the Alleghenies, prior to the development of scattered convection during the evening hours. The highest chance for TSRA is at JST and BFD, mainly between 22z Sun and 03z Mon.

Areas of fog are likely Sunday night into early Monday as drier air works in aloft, but ample moisture remains trapped at the sfc beneath a thermal inversion. LIFR is possible at all TAF sites late tonight. Most if not all airfields will trend to MVFR or better by Mon afternoon after any early fog dissipates. The highest chance for VFR conds Mon afternoon will be north and west of a line from AOO to UNV to IPT.

Outlook...

Mon...AM low cigs/fog likely. Stray shower late.

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible, mainly Southern PA. Isold PM tsra impacts possible Western PA.

Wed...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns.

Thu...Rain/low cigs possible. PM tsra impacts possible southwest PA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Sun -- 03:41 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:53 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:13 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Sun -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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