Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Washington Boro, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:28PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 5:11 AM EDT (09:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:05AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 431 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 431 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Thursday. Low pressure will approach the waters Friday before passing through Friday night. High pressure will build over the waters during the weekend. Small craft advisories are possible Thursday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington Boro, PA
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location: 40, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 290605
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
205 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will move off the mid atlantic coast
overnight. High pressure will build down out of southern canada
and bring cooler and drier weather for Wednesday and Thursday.

A new storm system will approach for the end of this week with
the potential for more inclement weather.

Near term /until 8 am this morning/
Drier air slowly filtering southward over central pa early this
morning. Low clouds persist across central and northern areas in
subsidence inversion and areas of fog have formed across the
northern tier. Should see some of these start to break up
towards daybreak but will need daytime mixing to more fully
dissipate. Lows will drop to around freezing over the north, and
range to the mid 40s near the md border. This will still
average some 5-10 deg warmer than normal.

Short term /8 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday/
High pressure will bring a mix of Sun and clouds for Wednesday
over northern areas, and a bright sunny day over southern
areas. Highs in the 40s and 50s will be near to slightly above
normal. It will be breezy out of the north between 10 and 20
mph.

Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/
A nearly north-south ridge of high pressure with dry air, and
normal to slightly below normal 850 hpa and 925 hpa temperatures
will be overhead Wednesday night, creating nearly optimal
conditions to radiate strongly/cool off into the 20s to low 30s.

The one factor to watch closely that could impact min temps
will be the timing of thickening mid/high clouds that will be
spilling over the top of the upper ridge just to our west.

For Thursday... Should the timing of thickening clouds occur
during the morning (prior to the late march Sun having much of a
chance to warm the sfc) then the much cooler NAM temps (ranging
from the 40s to around 50f in the south) may be in store for
us, accompanied by a light southeasterly flow.

12z gfs/ec and their respective ensembles are in good agreement
with the onset timing of warm frontal rain that streaks quickly
east from the ohio valley Thursday afternoon and evening.

Evaporational/dynamic cooling of the airmass helps 925-850 mb
temps dip to around or slightly below 0c across our NE counties
Thursday night and Friday as the steadier light-mdtly heavy,
warm advection rain begins there. Included mention of a
rain/sleet and snow mix to the north and east of a kipt and kseg
line (mainly across elevations AOA 1800 ft msl, where even a
light coating of snow/sleet is possible by daybreak Friday).

There's a low prob for a light coating of snow on the high
terrain across sullivan county.

Model consensus is also for a quasi miller-b type of low track
heading just north of the ohio river during the day Friday,
then a pressure jump and slight intensification of the sfc low
(to 996 mb) off the southern nj and new england coast Saturday.

Under normally colder winter-time circumstances, this low track
would be pretty favorable for a significant snowfall across
much of central and northern pa. However, a quite warm boundary
layer (and 850 mb temps) to begin with, coupled with the lack
of a stronger anchoring high over southeast canada and new
england will mean a widespread/soaking rain evening with 24-36
hour rainfall at the majority of places here in central pa
coming in between 0.75-1.00 inch.

This rainfall will add a healthy spike to the flow and levels on
smaller streams and creeks across the region with broader mdt
rises on rivers, but no significant threat for flooding as
headwater flash flood guidance is averaging 2-2.5 inches for a
12 and 24 hour period respectively.

Periods of light rain, drizzle, and ridge shrouding dense fog
will persist Friday night into Saturday as slightly colder air
wraps around behind the storm. Some breaks in the cloud cover
should occur Saturday afternoon, ESP across the lower susq
valley where drying downslope flow will be enhanced. Forecast
temps Friday may be a bit warm considering the aforementioned
storm track just to our south, and amount of rain expected.

Max temps Saturday will near to a few deg f above normal in
many locations.

High pressure building over the region (coupled with the
offsetting effect of abundant sunshine and GEFS mean 850 mb
temps cooling by 3-4 deg c imply MAX temps close to what we'll
see Saturday, which is upper 40s to lower 50s across the nrn
mtns... And mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Dry and slightly milder
conditions are in the forecast for Monday as the ridge of high
pressure slides just to our east and ens mean 850 mb temps
rebound by a few to svrl deg c (atop a light serly sfc flow).

The next, rather potent and moisture laden southern stream wave
heads our way for Mon night and Tuesday, bringing a likelihood
of a widespread rain.

Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/
MVFR/ifr ceilings will persist across the western 3/4 of the
airspace into the mid-late morning. The far southeast 1/4
including kmdt/klns should stay lowVFR with bases 4-5kft agl.

All guidance is in agreement with high confidence in improving
conditions/return toVFR this afternoon.VFR will continue
tonight with increasing high level clouds/cigs AOA 15kft agl.

Outlook...

thu:VFR/no sig wx. Chance of rain NW 1/2 late.

Thu night-fri: MVFR/ifr. Rain.

Sat: sub-vfr restrictions early; then gradually improving
conditions into Sat night.

Sun:VFR/no sig wx.

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte
near term... Grumm/devoir/la corte
short term... Grumm
long term... Lambert/gartner
aviation... Steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 49 mi42 min NNW 7 G 11 53°F 47°F1015.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 51 mi42 min NNE 15 G 18 56°F 50°F1015.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 54 mi42 min N 9.9 G 14 56°F 1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA13 mi19 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast48°F41°F77%1017.8 hPa
York, York Airport, PA21 mi19 minN 1010.00 miOvercast49°F43°F80%1017.8 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA21 mi16 minNNW 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F39°F71%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5NE7E7E8E10SE7E4NE7SE3CalmN4N4CalmNW3NW4CalmCalmW3CalmW5NW12N11N14N8
1 day agoCalmNE3NE4N5E3SE33SW3N3CalmCalmE3E5E4NE4E4E4E4E5E5E5NE5NE6E5
2 days agoE13E11E9E9E10SE12SE12SE12SE11SE11SE11SE12E12E9E10SE7E7E9E8E6E5E7E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Wed -- 12:04 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:13 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:19 PM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.321.51.10.60.30.10.20.81.72.52.92.92.62.11.510.50.1-00.20.81.6

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:26 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:53 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.91.40.90.40.100.30.91.62.32.62.62.31.81.30.80.40.10.10.51.11.72.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.