Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 9:32 AM   Moonset 12:16 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 734 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through this evening - .
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Tue night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Wed night - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 734 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will push south of the waters today before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional waves of low pressure and quick moving fronts will pass through the region Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday through Friday.

FXUS61 KCTP 131114 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 714 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will brush northern PA on Monday before a cold front pushes through on Tuesday. A wave of low pressure tracking south of the Commonwealth will continue showery conditions on Wednesday with drier conditions expected Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Visible satellite imagery early this morning shows a dendritic pattern of valley fog across much of Central PA. Further east, pooling of low level moisture along and east of a weak surface trough in the Susq Valley has resulted in stratus over the eastern counties with ridgetop fog noted over the higher elevations of Schuylkill county. Model guidance and indicates the fog and low clouds will mix out between 13Z-15Z.

Upper level ridging building over PA should result in a warmer and drier Monday overall. However, a weak area of low pressure and its attendant warm front lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks could produce a few morning showers or afternoon tsra across the northern half of PA. Partly to mostly sunny skies and a developing southwest flow should push readings well into the 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure passing off of the east coast and the resulting southerly breeze should result in a significantly milder Monday night, with lows in the 50s. Generally fair weather should hold tonight with upper level ridging over the state. However, a weakening shortwave lifting out of the Ohio Valley could support a late night shower over primarily the southwest part of the forecast area.

Expect an increasing chance of showers and possible tsra Tuesday associated with an approaching southern stream shortwave lifting northeast from the Southern Miss Valley. Model RH profiles support mainly overcast skies, which should act to limit heating and the chance of tsra. However, surging low level moisture, combined with modest diurnal heating, should support fairly widespread showers and isolated tsra by late afternoon based on the 00Z HRRR.

All guidance tracks the surface low linked to the approaching shortwave south of PA Tuesday night into Wednesday, resulting in another period of rain. Latest ensemble plumes suggest around a half inch of rain is likely in most spots by Wednesday evening.
Have tweaked temps downward slightly from NBM guidance Wednesday due to the expected rain and easterly flow. Raw NAM/GFS surface temps peak in the 60s over most of the region Wed. Expect rain to end Wed evening, as the low exits the Mid Atlantic coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Late evening update holds no big changes to the long range fcst.
Thursday-ish still has the possibility of being dry for most locations. The S may have isold diurnal convection - but shortwave ridging will likely keep it dry. Left the 20-30 PoPs in for Thurs given by the National Blend respecting the low predictability of timing and strength of mesoscale features, like the aforementioned small ridge aloft, at this range.

Prev...
Lingering unsettled weather is possible into Wednesday, as upper-level low pressure passes overhead.

Medium range models diverge a bit late this week. The ECMWF continues to show unsettled weather persisting into Thursday, as the upper- level low pressure very slowly pulls to our east.
The GFS/GEFS is a bit more optimistic, showing an upper- level ridge bringing a period of dry weather from Wednesday night through early Friday.

Both medium range models are in agreement in bringing our next weather maker into the area later Friday into Saturday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. The result would be another Saturday with rain, easterly winds, and below average temperatures - a beloved tradition over the last couple months in Central PA.

AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A few of the sites in the eastern airfields this morning are experiencing low clouds from a southerly stream of moisture.
Elsewhere morning valley fog is beginning to lift. Winds should remain light this morning before ridging continues to build in.

After fog lifts/mixes out, VFR conditions prevail for everyone today. Winds could become somewhat gusty as high pressure riding builds and becomes dominant; however, a few light showers are possible for northern airfields later in the afternoon (BFD, UNV, and IPT) from a weak upper level trough, but no restrictions are expected at this time. Most places will remain dry throughout the day. The next chance for rain and visibility restrictions will be during the early morning hours on Tuesday as the next disturbance makes its way to PA.

Outlook...

Tue...Showers/tstms and reductions developing.

Wed...Showery weather and reductions continue.

Thu...Slow improvement, with a few lingering showers possible.

Fri...Deteriorating conditions with showers increasing.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:12 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:46 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:41 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:19 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:25 PM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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