Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dover Beaches North, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:17PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:39 AM EDT (14:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 6:55PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 917 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon edt today...
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm edt this evening...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Areas of dense fog early this morning. Areas of fog late this morning and early afternoon. A chance of showers early this morning...then a slight chance of showers late this morning. A chance of showers early this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less until late afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers until late afternoon...then showers likely with a chance of tstms late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw late in the evening...then becoming nw after midnight... Becoming N late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Patchy fog until early morning. Showers likely with a chance of tstms early in the evening. Showers in the late evening and early morning...then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 nm or less until early morning.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 917 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Northeastward moving low pressure from the upper great lakes to missouri will pull a warm front northward through the delmarva and southern new jersey today. The warm front should stall across southeastern pennsylvania and central new jersey, awaiting the passage of the missouri low, through new jersey, Tuesday evening. Thereafter, canadian high pressure will build into our area Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure in the ohio valley on Friday will move east and off the mid atlantic coast on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dover Beaches North, NJ
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location: 40.01, -74.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 271034
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
634 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
Northeastward moving low pressure from the upper great lakes to
missouri will pull a warm front northward through the DELMARVA and
southern new jersey today. The warm front should stall across
southeastern pennsylvania and central new jersey, awaiting the
passage of the missouri low, through new jersey, Tuesday evening.

Thereafter, canadian high pressure will build into our area
Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure in the ohio valley on Friday
will move east and off the mid atlantic coast on Saturday. Weak
high pressure should follow on Sunday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Few minor tweaks at 630 a.M. Added coastal atlantic county to
dense fog advy. It was mistakenly left out earlier. Also dropped
sussex de from advy since vsbys there have improved. Minor
downward adjustment to temps in metro philadelphia and n/w for
today.

A slow moving warm front will be tracking across the area today.

Our forecast has trended slower with the frontal passage and
includes a slower trend in improvement (sunshine) behind the
front and slightly lower temperatures for today. We have issued
a dense fog advisory for DELMARVA and parts of se/pa and SRN nj
for the early part of the morning, since the vsbys continue to
trend downward and are 1/2 sm - 3/4 sm attm. The onshore flow
will continue in these areas until the front passes later today.

The low clouds and areas of dense fog will be over the area
thru the first part of the morning before a S to N slow
improvement trend is expected today. Areas across the lehigh
valley and southern poconos may see improvement late this
afternoon. Confid in the n/w areas is limited attm. The low
which the warm front is attached to is weak, so it's possible
that the topography of these areas may play a factor slowing the
motion. Highs today are expected to reach the upper 60s/low 70s
over south nj and delmarva, low/mid 60s in central nj , metro
philadelphia and lehigh valley and 50s north of that.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday/
Hopefully the warm front will have moved far enough away to have
a lull in the precip for the evening. More showers will arrive
overnight as the next short wave approaches from the w/sw. Pops
increase back to the chc range overnight, favoring slightly the
srn nj and DELMARVA areas. Mild with lows in the low 50s s/e and
mid/upper 40s n/w. Light winds expected.

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/
500 mb: a split flow regime will continue across the united
states during this period. A short wave crosses pennsylvania
Tuesday and then phases with a northern stream system into a
closed low over the maritimes Wednesday night. The next southern
stream short wave in the pipeline over the mississippi valley
Thursday night, weakens eastward off the mid atlantic coast
Saturday. Yet another southern stream short wave will be moving
eastward from the lower mississippi valley early next week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages should be about 5 degrees above
normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and normal to 5 degrees
below on Friday, and then normal or several degrees above on
Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/27 gfs/nam MOS Tuesday-
Wednesday, then 00z/27 mexmos Wednesday night-Thursday and
thereafter wpc guidance Thursday night-Sunday.

The dailies...

Tuesday... The position of the warm front Tuesday will probably
result in a wide range of temperatures across our area with
large error potential i-78 region northward where global models
are warm but the ever improving 12km NAM and its downscaled 3km
temperatures, are much cooler. Dreary north of that warm front
with patchy dense fog possible and a likelihood of heavy showers
during the afternoon and evening as the missouri low cuts east
along the mason dixon line, heading for a nj seaward exit
Tuesday evening. There could be afternoon and evening
thunderstorms with this short wave. Within the warm sector in
advance of the cold front, we expect sunshine to break out south
of the warm front with temperatures reaching the upper 70s. A
low- level moist tongue will also be in place across this area,
ml CAPE (400-800j), along with negative lifted and showalter
indices, within an environment characterized by poor lapse rates
and weak shear. Thunder is expected but despite the warm
front,right now svr is not. Do follow later phi and spc
discussions. Precipitable water values around 1.25 inches,
should yield some heavy showers near the path of the low.

Movement should be east northeast and there could be some
training and backbuilding along the warm front so that this may
need to be monitored for narrow bands of poor drainage street
flooding rain Tuesday afternoon/evening. Winds light northeast,
north of the warm front (near i-78) and southerly in the warm
sector DELMARVA and S nj. Confidence: above average except the
location of the warm front and the associated temps near the
warm front.

Tuesday night... Showers still may be heavy in the evening (still
thunder possible?), then end from west to east late and the
wind turns north everywhere. Confidence: above average.

Wednesday... A gusty northerly flow to 25 mph of cold air
advection. Dry. Confidence: above average.

Thursday... A sunny start, then increasing clouds and cool ahead
of the next storm system. Light wind. Confidence: above average.

Friday... Increasing model consensus that this actually looks
like a decent little mid atlantic coastal storm with one half to
1.5" of qpf, and currently, only a slight chance of a little
wet snow near and north of i-80 since models have trended
slightly northward.

Friday evening tides may exceed the minor advisory threshold
along the nj atlantic coast provided the sfc low passes south
of acy.

Overall Friday confidence: above average.,
Saturday... Precipitation(mainly rain) ends, but clouds may
linger since there doesn't seem to be much in the way of high
pressure following the low. Confidence: average
Sunday... Considerable cloudiness. Low confidence on what might
transpire this day.

Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

The latest issuance of the tafs are somewhat more pessimistic with
regards to how fast the transition back to MVFR thenVFR occurs
today. Warm fronts are usually known for their stubbornness for
improving conditions and this seems to be the case for today. A
decent SW flow aloft argues for the fact that when things begin to
improve, it should happen quickly, but what time that happens is the
problem for the day. The showers that the models show arriving this
morning may mix up the low clouds and fog enough to get the process
going. Winds will be erly prior to the warm front the SW behind it.

Vfr will probably be across the del valley and delmarva/south nj
this afternoon, conditions may remain MVFR across krdg/kabe longer.

Probably a period ofVFR this evening, the more low clouds/showers
late tonight.

Outlook...

confidence: above average all days. Exception being the details of
the warm frontal position Tuesday and timing of poorest conditions
where there is less than average confidence.

Tuesday... Ifr or MVFR conditions Tuesday morning at all TAF sites,
with improvement toVFR by afternoon at all but abe, rdg, and ttn
where ifr may may linger all day. Showers become widespread in the
afternoon/evening with light northeast flow at abe, rdg, ttn and
light south or southeast flow elsewhere. Isolated tstms expected.

Tuesday night... MVFR possible early in showers, otherwise becoming
vfr late. Winds becoming north everywhere late.

Wednesday... MostlyVFR. North wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Thursday...VFR. Light north wind.

Friday... Ifr or MVFR conds in periods of rain. Mostly east wind
ahead of the low.

Marine
We will continue with the SCA flag for seas around 5 ft seas today.

The erly flow will be weakening with time as the warm front slides
northward today. I could see the flag being dropped earlier, but
we will keep it for now. Dense fog on the waters this morning with
the warmer and more humid air arriving across the cold water.

Scattered showers later this morning may stir vsbys up. More sct
showers expected tonight. Patchy fog tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Fog may be marine hazard? Otherwise no SCA expected at
this time. Thunderstorms could occur, especially late in the
day. Confidence: average.

Tuesday night... SCA northerly flow may develop late. Confidence:
average.

Wednesday... Northerly flow sca. Confidence: above average.

Thursday... No headlines. Confidence: above average.

Friday... SCA potential as low pressure heads for the mid
atlantic coast. Confidence: above average.

Climate
Georgetown 3/28 rer MAX is 80 set in 1960.

Phl temperatures continue to project near 1 degree f below
normal for the month as a whole.

Equipment
Knel appears to be reading 10f too warm the past couple of
days.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for paz070-071-
101-102-104.

Nj... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for njz013-014-
016>018-020>027.

De... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for dez001-002.

Md... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for mdz008-012-
015-019-020.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until noon edt today for anz430-431-450>455.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for
anz450>453.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag/o'hara
marine... Drag/o'hara
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 24 mi40 min 43°F5 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 32 mi52 min E 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 41°F1018.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi50 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 43°F 42°F4 ft1018.9 hPa (-1.4)43°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi52 min NNE 1 G 4.1 43°F 44°F1019.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 38 mi70 min S 6 51°F 1019 hPa51°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi64 min 42°F 43°F1018.9 hPa
MHRN6 44 mi52 min N 4.1 G 5.1
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 44 mi52 min 41°F 42°F1019.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi52 min N 4.1 G 5.1 41°F 1019.6 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 48 mi52 min 46°F 42°F1018.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi52 min 41°F 42°F1019 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi44 minSW 510.00 miOvercast51°F50°F96%1019.7 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi44 minN 00.25 miFog45°F45°F100%1019.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ12 mi1.7 hrsESE 30.25 miSky Obscured59°F48°F67%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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E8E7NE8NE7NE7NE6NE7NE6NE6E3CalmCalmCalmSE4SW5
1 day agoSW11W7W6E8E4E5E6NE8NE7E6SE5NE9E7E6E7NE9
G15
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2 days agoSW11
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S5CalmCalmCalmS4SW6SW11SW8SW7SW7SW8SW9SW10SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:05 AM EDT     0.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:27 PM EDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.30.20.10-0-000.10.30.40.40.40.40.30.20.1-0-0-00.10.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:03 AM EDT     -2.91 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     2.90 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:27 PM EDT     -3.12 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     2.92 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-2.5-2.9-2.5-1.10.622.82.71.90.7-0.5-1.5-2.4-3-3-1.9-0.21.52.62.92.21.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.