Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:29PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:42 PM EDT (03:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:46AMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1032 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A surface boundary will stall across the waters this afternoon and weaken by tonight. Another weak front will approach late Tuesday...also stalling and weakening. A third cold front will finally push through Wednesday night, with high pressure following on Thursday. A warm front will lift northward on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville , PA
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location: 40.02, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 300310
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1110 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
A cold front over eastern pa will weaken and dissipate
overnight. Another cold front will push toward the region
Tuesday. Low pressure at the surface and aloft will stay
centered near james bay canada through the rest of the week
providing a period of slightly cooler than normal temperatures
along with several chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
10pm update...

the meso anal shows the a weak front remaining stalled over my
eastern zones extending from just west of ipt south to around
camp david md. The low clouds and cooler marine air remain
entrenched over the eastern zones. The hrrr suggests this
boundary could even slide a bit to the west over the next few
hours before washing out altogether in the strengthening sw
flow after midnight.

Upstream convection embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft
could sneak a few showers isolated thunderstorms into my western
and northern zones overnight, but the majority of the region
will remain dry and mild. Lows will average about 5-10 deg above
normal.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Brief ridging will allow any popcorn sprinkles and light showers
to clear over the western two-thirds of the CWA this evening,
and residual moisture may lead to areas of fog, especially in
the central valleys. The low level moisture and low stratus deck
aob 1000 ft agl will push gradually westward across the central
mtns and west br susq valley and stay intact through early
Tuesday. Mins tonight will dip into the 50s for most, as the
dewpoints will be the bottom limit.

A separate, weak sfc trough will be pushed into the area from
the northwest tonight. 8h temps fall a bit over the nw. Heights
fall just a little, too, so some precip is possible before
sunrise Tuesday over the northwestern third of the area, but it
should be light.

The trough begins to catch the stalled trough over the eastern
counties. The southerly or southeasterly wind will yield good
convergence and will crank up some showers and thunderstorms.

Have painted high pops for the area, but the amount severity of
destabilization is in question with the clouds in the NE early
in the day. NAM cranks out 1500joules of CAPE and LI drops to -2
or so in the mid-day and aftn on tues. SPC marginal risk of svr
wx for day 2 (tues) is painted across our eastern half, focused
on the peak heating time. Will continue to mention this in the
hwo.

Max temps across the region will range through the 70s, with the
warmest readings once again in the scent mtns where 78-80f
readings should occur.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
The long term period begins with a good consensus on the
location and shape of the large upper level low over southern
canada. That low will dominate the weather pattern this week
into next. As the low rotates it will bring successive short and
long wave troughs through the mid atlantic region. These
troughs will bring the possibility of precipitation, mainly
Wednesday and Friday afternoon. This upper level low will also
bring cooler northwesterly flow into central pa. That flow
should keep temperatures around, to slightly below, normal.

The next chance for significant precipitation will be Friday night
into Saturday as that upper level low progresses eastward. The
models begin to diverge on the position, timing and strength of
the system. This decreases confidence. However, all models show
a boundary that should set up through the keystone state. The
main question is when will it progress through and how much
moisture will be available for QPF when the corresponding cold
front moves through Saturday.

Current GFS brings precipitation through Saturday where the ec
brings largest QPF Sunday.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
Some minor adjustments to 03z tafs.

Activity to the southeast is south of our area, and showers
to the west are weakening. Left shower out of bfd, that area
north of pa now.

For 00z TAF package, did add brief tempo group for fog
at unv, aoo, and bfd, given wet ground. I did not make it
too long, given short nights.

Far eastern areas will likely see MVFR and ifr conditions
tonight into Tuesday, given easterly flow.

For Tuesday, expect most of the area to beVFR. For now,
went with vcsh instead of any significant time or point
with showers and storms. Dewpoints not real high, much
lower than yesterday, and low level flow not real strong,
hard to see much in the way of widespread storms with low
cigs etc.

Best chance for a dry day will be Thursday.

Outlook
Wed... Chance of showers.

Thu... No sig wx expected.

Fri... Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sat... Still a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte
near term... La corte
short term... Lambert
long term... Ceru martin
aviation... Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 41 mi23 min SE 14 G 16 64°F 1017.8 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 51 mi43 min ESE 2.9 G 7 62°F 68°F1018.6 hPa (+2.2)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 52 mi43 min SSE 8 G 13 65°F 69°F1017.3 hPa (+2.2)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 55 mi43 min ESE 14 G 16 64°F 1017.6 hPa (+2.2)

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA14 mi50 minSE 107.00 miOvercast63°F62°F97%1017.3 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA18 mi47 minESE 910.00 miOvercast66°F62°F87%1016.6 hPa
York, York Airport, PA19 mi50 minESE 610.00 miOvercast65°F64°F97%1016.7 hPa
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA22 mi1.8 hrsE 910.00 miOvercast68°F61°F78%1016 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E7E7E8E4E4NE5E6E5E8E3E5SE5E3E8SE6SE6E6SE7SE8E6SE7SE6SE10
1 day agoCalmCalmE3SE3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE9SE6SE6S8SE6S9S5S4SE7SE3SE5E5E4
2 days agoSW4W5W3CalmW3W5NW4SW3W53W3W3W5NW6SW5W7SW7W5SW6SW4SW4SW3SW3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:19 PM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.62.32.52.421.61.20.80.60.60.91.62.53.43.83.73.432.41.81.30.90.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.121.81.40.90.50.30.40.81.52.22.732.92.52.11.61.10.60.30.20.51

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.