Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:42 PM EST (22:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:12PMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 354 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..NE winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft...except flat near the mouth of the susquehanna. Rain, snow and sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 354 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will pass through the waters this evening before moving toward long island overnight. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley Friday through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and a weak cold front may pass through early next week. Gale warnings may be required Friday, and small craft advisories may be needed through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville , PA
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location: 40.02, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 152118
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
418 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A significant, widespread winter storm system will affect us
through early Friday. The occluded front will slide north
through the area early tonight followed by a strong cold front
later tonight. Blustery conditions and much below normal
temperatures will continue into early next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
So far... .More snow than any other p-type. Very little mix after
the initial burst this morning. Best band of the day is over the
office and making all the meteo dept students happy on campus.

The biggest changes were to nudge the snow totals up for the
central mtns, and add in another inch or so for the late night
in the susq valley. This will make the morning commute in the
east difficult at first, but the snow should taper off very
quickly as it exits to the east.

Following the most recent trends in radar, the heaviest precip
overhead will lift northward and continue to produce 1" hr
amounts. Precip over the southern tier should get lighter and
mix a bit, but the mix line on obs at 20z is still just south of
the md border. The occlusion is still well to the south also.

Will keep precip type mention mainly snow for a little while
longer. But, as the drier air wraps in from the south and we
lose the intensity, the precip should go more to fzdz over the
eastern half of the area south of ipt, and even go to plain rain
over the far SE tonight.

However, the upper low will cross overhead and the
forcing isentropic upglide will maximize in the comma head. This
will cause much heavier precip rates and it should go back to
all snow. Even the far SE will probably go back to snow as it
swings past.

Behind the last north-south oriented band, the air dries out and
the wind will back around to the nw. The wind will gust into the
teens or better in the south as the gradient tightens. Temps
don't move much through the period.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
Snow should be over by 7 or 8 am in the far eastern towns.

Gusty west to wnw winds up to around 40 mph will occur later
Friday morning through dusk in the tight p-gradient as the storm
departs quickly to the NE off the new england coast. The
highest winds will be in the south in the early morning, then
mainly over the western mtns the rest of the day. Quickly
lowering subsidence inversion base and warm mean cloud layer
temps of just around -5c will limit les and orographically
generated snow showers. Accums will be only in the coating to
one inch range across the N WRN mtns during the daylight hours.

As the Sun breaks thru in the SE third of the area, it will help
temps get near 40 there also thanks to the the downslope wind.

But, everyone else is going to be stuck in the 30s.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Lake effect snow showers and associated cloud cover will wane
fri night into early Sat as shortwave slides east away from the
region. But broad upper level long-wave trough will persist
over eastern half of the country. Trough does sharpen up
somewhat on Sunday Monday over the great lakes, which will bring
a shot for some light snow during that time. Chilly high
pressure area builds in midweek. Temps will remain about 10f
below normal through the week.

After being pretty well in line much of the period, model
differences begin to appear heading into thanksgiving weekend.

Ultimately the forecast will depend on where ridging sets up
over the central u.S. And whether a shortwave can slide over the
top and approach pa (as depicted by the gfs), or whether the
ridge sets up further east blocking any northern stream
intrusions (like the ec).

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
Snow occurring over all sites with -pl mixing in at kjst. Expect
this to continue through daylight hours based on current radar
trends.

Ultimately some warmer air will mix in with -pl and -fzra
generally after 00z. Some -fzdz is possible where the
precipitation intensity diminishes. An area of snow under the
upper low pressure will swing through overnight with a return to
snow showers and MVFR conditions. Precip will end during the
morning hours on Friday with MVFR toVFR conditions but gusty
winds from the west.

Outlook
Sat-sun... MainlyVFR. MVFR with snow showers nw.

Mon... No sig wx.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter storm warning until 8 am est Friday for paz005-006-
010>012-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

Winter storm warning until 6 am est Friday for paz017>019-
024>028-033>035.

Winter weather advisory until 8 am est Friday for paz004.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Dangelo
short term... Dangelo
long term... Lambert rxr
aviation... La corte tyburski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 51 mi42 min NE 11 G 19 35°F 48°F1018.3 hPa (-5.1)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 52 mi42 min ENE 19 G 25 36°F 1014.9 hPa (-6.9)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 55 mi42 min NE 25 G 31 36°F 1014.3 hPa (-7.5)

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA14 mi49 minENE 135.00 miLight Freezing Rain Fog/Mist33°F28°F85%1019.9 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA18 mi46 minENE 93.00 miLight Freezing Rain Snow Pellets Fog/Mist30°F26°F85%1019.4 hPa
York, York Airport, PA19 mi49 minENE 14 G 223.00 miFreezing Rain Fog/Mist30°F27°F88%1018.8 hPa
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA22 mi46 minENE 112.00 miFreezing Rain Fog/Mist30°F26°F85%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N6N4N3NE5NE6E5E6E4E6E4E9E7E7E7E9E9E9E7E12E12
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2 days agoSE4SE4SE3E3CalmN4NE5E6NE6NE9NE7NE6NE4NW5NW6N3NW12NW12NW13
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:47 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:01 PM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:13 PM EST     1.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.62.22.62.62.52.321.61.310.80.70.91.21.61.81.81.61.31.10.80.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:54 AM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:33 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:20 PM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:25 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.82.12.22.11.91.61.310.80.60.60.81.11.41.51.51.31.10.80.60.50.50.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.