Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leisure Village East, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:39PM Saturday November 17, 2018 11:03 PM EST (04:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 1:37AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 911 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this evening. Seas around 3 ft late this evening and early morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 911 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will settle across the area tonight and remain for much of Sunday. Two fast moving systems will affect the area beginning later Sunday and lasting through Tuesday. Arctic high pressure will then build towards the area Tuesday night and Wednesday and persist across the area until the end of the week. A disturbance may arrive across the region next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisure Village East, NJ
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location: 40.03, -74.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 180145
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
845 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will settle across the area tonight and remain for
much of Sunday. Two fast moving systems will affect the area
beginning later Sunday and lasting through Tuesday. Arctic high
pressure will then build towards the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday and persist across the area until the end of the week.

A disturbance may arrive across the region next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
845 pm update... Stratocu has been persisting over parts of
eastern pa (north of philly) into northern nj so we beefed up
cloud cover a bit here for tonight and also raised temps.

Farther south where clearing has occurred, temperatures in some
areas are running colder than forecast due to good radiational
cooling so temps were adjusted down.

Previous discussion... Quiet weather expected tonight as the
surface high approaches and builds over our region. The main
challenge tonight is with the stratocumulus deck that has
persisted along and northwest of the 95 corridor for much of the
day.

Models depict this deck lifting through the evening with only mid
and upper clouds for much of the night. If this occurs, expect
efficient radiational cooling, and thus lows may drop into the 20s
across much of the area. My concern is that if the stratocu manages
to persist past sunset in any area once an inversion has developed
and decoupling has occurred, then the lower clouds could persist
longer, keeping temperatures slightly higher. However, where or even
if the low clouds will persist this long is unclear. Thus, I have
stayed close to the previous forecast, with lows for areas NW of the
fall line near or below 30, and lows across the coastal plains in
the lower to mid 30s.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
The first of a series of progressive clipper systems is expected to
propagate over the region tomorrow. Current model tracks depict that
the precipitation during the day tomorrow will be limited to areas
along and north of the i78 corridor. Given the lack of a deep upper
level trough with this system, and the expanse of the surface high,
this track looks very reasonable. Therefore, have kept mention of
precipitation limited mostly to the lehigh valley, southern poconos,
and NW nj.

If any precipitation occurs, it will likely be in the form of a rain
snow mix or all snow. Some model soundings depict a very shallow
cloud layer, and thus very little in the way of snow (rather it would
be mostly rain, or even some freezing rain in the highest elevations
of the poconos), but this is unlikely given the cold air already in
place and a lack of any warm layer aloft (which matches what
upstream RAOB soundings are depicting).

This will be a fast moving system and moisture will be limited, so
any precipitation that occurs, should be light, and snow
accumulations should be less than one half inch.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Summary... Colder than normal temperatures with two systems affecting
the area Sunday night through Tuesday, then dry and cold through the
end of the week. Moderating temperatures and another system
possible next weekend.

Sunday night through Monday... The first (of 2) clipper type systems
will affect (mostly) the northern fringes of the CWA (the southern
poconos and NW nj) with some snow rain showers Sun night into Monday.

Right now, given the fast pace of the system, QPF should be rather
light, but still lower vsbys and small accums are possible (Monday
morning commute). The rain vs, snow line will be nearby, so higher
elevations and nighttime QPF will favor snow. We haven't changed
the QPF snowfall much from the previous fcst with 1 2 inch to
3 4 inch psbl.

Monday night and Tuesday... The second system seems to be trending
a bit stronger as the upper trough to the west is sharpening up.

The weak low and QPF pattern seems to be setting up more in the
north and central parts of the CWA with somewhat higher totals
(compared to the first system). The rain snow line will be still
across the north, away from the higher qpf, but still close
enough to have some concern, especially with the overall colder
pattern beginning to take shape. Higher elevations N W will
probably have some snow with the system. Another 1 2 inch to 1
inch psbl across the N w.

Tuesday night... The second disturbance will move offshore and high
pressure well the west will begin to influence the region. Cold and
dry air will be ushered across the area behind the low and temperatures
will begin a much below normal period which should last until late
week.

Wednesday through Friday... A dry period with high pressure building
across the area. A fast moving system will cross well north of the
poconos Wed night which could bring a few snow showers there, but
otherwise a dry fcst for our area. Cold ! Readings remaining well
below normal with records possible. The coldest day (thanksgiving)
may see highs only in the 20s far N W with low mid 30s elsewhere.

Lows Fri morning in the teens (north west) and low mid 20s elsewhere.

Next weekend... The high pressure area will be offshore and the next
system will be arriving across the middle atlantic. As is usually
the case, much variation in the op models, so mostly chc pops for
the period. The latest GFS and cmc models favor mostly rain with
sat night Sun for the favored time periods. By then temperatures
will be back near normal.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions are expected. The stratocumulus deck
north of kphl kpne between 3000 and 5000 agl is expected to
linger through the evening before lifting. Once it does so,
ceilings should be around 8000 to 11000 agl. Winds will
diminish this evening and shift to northwesterly. Winds will
remain light.

Tomorrow...VFR conditions are likely at the TAF sites. There is a
slight chance, 20%, for rain and snow showers at krdg and kabe after
18z tomorrow. If that occurs, MVFR ceilings and visibility are
possible at those two sites. However, the chance is too low to
include in the tafs at this time. At the start of the day, wind will
be light and variable, eventually settling out of the southeast by
18z, but should remain less than 10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday night thru Tuesday...VFR most of the time, but showers
(rain S E with snow psbl far N w) could bring lower CIGS vsbys
at times.

Tue night thru Thursday...VFR expected. Gusty winds psbl tue
night wed.

Marine
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
tonight and tomorrow. However, westerly and northwesterly wind gusts
around 20 kt will remain possible through the evening.

Outlook...

sun night thru tue... Sub-sca with mostly few showers psbl.

Tue night thru thu... SCA possible. Fair. Cold thu.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Fitzsimmons johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Fitzsimmons johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi33 min W 8 G 14 44°F 46°F1026.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi23 min WNW 18 G 21 46°F 51°F1025.6 hPa35°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi33 min W 5.1 G 5.1 41°F 41°F1026.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 39 mi33 min SSW 4.1 31°F 1026 hPa30°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi87 min W 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 40°F1025.9 hPa
MHRN6 42 mi33 min W 8 G 11
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 42 mi33 min 43°F 46°F1025.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi33 min W 9.9 G 12 44°F 1025.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 47 mi33 min 43°F 49°F1025.4 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi33 min 42°F 52°F1027.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ10 mi67 minW 610.00 miFair40°F30°F68%1026.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ11 mi2.1 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy38°F34°F86%1025.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi67 minW 310.00 miFair30°F28°F92%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW7SW8W10W8W8W8W6W6W9W8NW13W9W13W10W11W8W10W7W5----W6W4
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2 days agoNW7N6N4N6NE6N5NE7NE7E7NE12NE10NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:37 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:30 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EST     0.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:54 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:28 PM EST     0.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:37 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:53 AM EST     1.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:03 AM EST     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:12 PM EST     1.59 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:30 PM EST     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.11.41.10.60.1-0.5-1-1.4-1.6-1.3-0.50.41.21.61.40.90.3-0.4-1-1.5-1.9-1.9-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.