Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 5:32 AM   Moonset 8:51 PM

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FXUS61 KILN 081957 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 357 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
A surface low pressure center will cross the area underneath an eastward moving mid level shortwave tonight, creating another round of showers and thunderstorms. These storms will decrease but then re-fire along a trailing cold front later in the day Thursday, though with much less coverage and intensity than recent events. High pressure will provide cooler and dry weather to end of the work week before a fast moving system moving through the Great Lakes brings showers on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A slower trend in showers and storms working into the CWA from the south/southwest should also hamper the severe threat this evening. Cirrus blowoff nosing into western CWA will thicken and begin to knock down surface instability in the south. Southern storms will need to maintain a severe threat as they approach the CWA if they are expected to pose a threat for ILN.

WPC has southern/southwest CWA in a slight chance for excessive rainfall tonight. Combined with last night's rain, a significantly deep moist atmosphere, and expected thunderstorms, a flash flood watch has been issued for the southern 1/2 of CWA

Main concern for this watch remains in a narrow corridor running from south of Wilmington to the Ohio River, then northwest through metro Cincy and following I-74 through Indiana. Rainfall along the I-74 corridor into Cincinnati was quite high, with reports of 2-4" quite common and more than a handful over 3", focused in Hamilton County.

Lows will remain warm, ranging from the mid 50s north to lower 60s in the southern half of CWA

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The cold front behind the surface low and upper s/w will clear our area early Thursday with cooler air holding daytime highs in the low to mid 60s north of I-70, low to mid 70s south to the Ohio River, and some upper 70s along the Ohio and in northern Kentucky.

As cooler air in the north works in, the overturning associated with it could interact with the last s/w activity ahead of a l/w trough late in the day. Add in a trailing cold front laying out w-e in the center of the CWA and that brings another rain potential, moreso to the north. Models are a little too generous with rainfall on Thursday, and probably a little heavy handed regarding thunder prospects. Shaved back a little bit wrt pops, especially early but did not adjust the thunder chances.

The trailing front will be more of a boundary that could continue to support shower activity as the l/w trough approaches from the northwest towards daybreak Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The l/w trough will slowly move east on Friday. Couldn't remove the shower threat entirely but it's quite muted and only expected to be some passing light showers if they do develop.

A brief lull in pops Friday evening will end later overnight as a secondary reinforcing s/w tracks sw into northern OH early Saturday. This will generate a weak surface circulation and trailing cold front/windshift to create more showers and possibly some thunderstorms through evening. Decreasing clouds overnight with increasing heights will promote a drier period lasting through early Monday.

In the cold air behind the front, temperatures will drop to the upper 40s and low 50s Thursday night, and a sharply cooler Friday with highs in the low 60s. Another cool night will see Saturday morning start out in the 45-50 range, with only slightly warmer highs in the 60s. One last cool night is in the offing for Saturday night as lows drop to the mid 40s. Highs will then begin to warm a little each day beginning Sunday.

Upper level zonal flow through early next week will promote a slow modification of the airmass with daytime highs reaching back into the 80s Monday and Tuesday. Some embedded mid level energy will lead to some lower end chances for showers and a few thunderstorms both days.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Patches of stratus have developed near the Dayton and Columbus terminals early this morning. Due to the scattered nature of the low clouds, expecting burn off to occur rather quickly.

Otherwise, fair conditions will occur through much of the day under a narrow ridge of high pressure. The next disturbance will arrive very late this afternoon into tonight. Initially, scattered storms are possible along a developing warm front near the Cincinnati terminals. After this, there should be an increasing coverage of rain showers with embedded storms overnight. MVFR cloud bases are likely to develop during the widespread rain late.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs possible into Thursday morning and again on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for INZ066-073>075-080.

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