Monday, May29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Wayne Lakes, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:01PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:14 PM EDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:20AMMoonset 11:51PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wayne Lakes, OH
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location: 40.03, -84.67     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 291452
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
1052 am edt Mon may 29 2017

A slightly drier air mass is in place in the middle ohio valley
behind a cold front. Another weak front will move through the
area tonight, which could bring a few showers or thunderstorms.

Upper level low pressure will remain in place over the northern
great lakes through the middle of the week, with seasonable
conditions over the ohio valley.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A somewhat drier airmass has settled into the area this morning
with mainly clear skies across the region. Mid level short wave
energy rotating around an upper level low over the northern
great lakes will help push a weak surface low level trough down
into our area through late afternoon. There will be a bit of an
uptick in moisture along this feature, leading to some marginal
instabilities developing along and ahead of this boundary. This
may allow for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across our
northwest late in the day. Highs today will be mainly in the
upper 70s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
The dominant feature in the large-scale weather pattern early
this week will be the upper low centered north of lake superior.

On the southern periphery of this low, pseudo-zonal flow is
expected over the iln cwa, but with some intrusion of very weak
shortwave forcing at times. One such instance will occur this
evening, with a very weak vorticity maxima moving east through
the CWA between 00z and 06z. Looking at winds and theta-e, there
is also evidence of a weak front at 925mb-850mb. This is not an
especially strong amount of forcing, and the air mass it will be
interacting with is fairly dry. At most, soundings are
developing SBCAPE values of around 500 j kg -- shallow and
high-based. Thus, not seeing a reason (at least this far out in
the forecast process) to increase pops above the 20-30 percent
chances currently in the forecast. These chances will end after
06z as the weak trough moves onward to the east.

Owing to the slight decrease in 925mb-850mb temperatures,
temperatures are likely to drop slightly from Monday to Tuesday,
even though it will be another day with a reasonable amount of
insolation and mixing. With 850mb temperatures falling by 2-3
degrees c, the MAX t forecast will show a 3-5 degree f drop
from Monday to Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The center of an upper level closed low over ontario will continue to
elongate and rotate northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. A couple
of embedded disturbances rotating around the base of this low across
our region, coupled with a weak cold front trof axis, requires
keeping low chance pops going during this period. The weak front
should exit the eastern cwfa by Wednesday evening when the threat
for pcpn should come to an end. After lows in the lower to mid 50s
Wednesday morning, highs on Wednesday will range from the lower to
mid 70s.

As the main mid level trough axis shifts east Wednesday night,
confluent flow in the mid levels will result in surface high
pressure building into the ohio valley. Skies will clear and winds
will become light to calm. It will likely be the coolest low
temperatures of the extended given radiational cooling. Lows will
drop into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

We will try to squeeze out a dry day on Thursday. However, return
moist flow around departing high and a pseudo warm front approaching
the region from the west may bring clouds and a low chance of
showers and thunderstorms to our far western cwfa by Thursday
evening. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 70s north to near
80 south.

Long range models are in decent agreement as we head into the first
part of the weekend, but then diverge as we go into next week.

Another upper level closed low is forecast to dig southeast into
southeast canada and the northern great lakes Friday into Saturday.

As this occurs, a cold front will slowly push south across the great
lakes, and then it may get hung up somewhere across our area on
Saturday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase on
Friday with the highest chances likely coming Friday night into
Saturday morning.

The remainder of the extended, as stated, becomes muddled as models
can not agree if upper level closed low will push off to our east or
additional energy will dig southward from south central canada into
the great lakes. Have broad brushed the forecast during this period
as front may be slow to depart to our east southeast. Thus, kept at
least a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the south, but
did allow the far north to dry out. High temperatures will remain in
the 70s for the weekend.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Some areas of fog and stratus have developed this morning,
primarily affecting the cvg luk iln airports. A range of MVFR to
lifr conditions can be expected for another hour or two, before
these conditions improve by mid-morning. Once this has occurred,
vfr conditions are expected through the rest of the day, with
just some high mid clouds and perhaps a few cumulus.

There may be a chance for a few scattered showers or
thunderstorms this evening, but confidence is too low to
include in the tafs as of now. A vcsh will be used at tday.

Outlook... Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Jgl
short term... Hatzos
long term... Hickman
aviation... Hatzos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Versailles Darke County Airport, OH14 mi79 minWSW 16 G 2010.00 miFair75°F55°F50%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from VES (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW11W9
1 day agoN7CalmCalmCalmN6N5N7NE4N4NE3NE3NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5S6S5S7SW13
2 days agoW7SW6W6SE4SW6SW6SW3CalmS3CalmSE14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.