Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wayne Lakes, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:24PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:45 PM EST (03:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wayne Lakes, OH
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location: 40.03, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 230211
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
911 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
A few showers will be possible during the overnight hours. On
Saturday, south winds ahead of a vigorous system in the midwest
will lift more widespread showers northward along with a warm
front. A cold front will pass east through the region Saturday
night, and could bring a round of thunderstorms with it in
addition to very heavy rain and strong, potentially damaging
winds.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Temperatures have dropped off this evening, however a few
locations have already started to level off. Expect temperatures
to slowly rise during the second half of the night as thicker
cloud cover moves into the region.

Dry conditions are currently in place, however as the night
progresses a few showers will begin to work northwards. Any
precipitation activity during the overnight hours is expected
to be light with most of activity near and south of the ohio
river.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
A strong surface low will track northeast from the plains to the
midwest on Saturday, and then to the great lakes region
Saturday night. Ahead of it, 60kt lljet will transport a
moisture plume to the region. Showers that occur in the warm
sector ahead of the front may wring out a period of moderate to
heavy rain as a warm front either meanders over the forecast
area or lifts northward depending on the model being spoken to.

Attm, the progressive nature of the rap lifting the warm front
north seems more likely with the strong lljet versus the models
that are wringing out this rain over ky and southern CWA during
the day.

As the dynamics approach with the front, if the warm air noses
well north, the chances for severe thunderstorms will increase
rapidly. Regardless if the area gets nicely warm-sectored, the
front is vigorous and may contain damaging winds regardless of
the amount of instability that may be present to produce
thunderstorms.

Kept the thunderstorm chances during the nighttime hours and
associated them with likely pops. Likewise, associated the
moderate rainfall with likely pops through the day and overnight
Saturday. As the front crosses overnight, rapid stabilization
will occur and showers will end from west to east.

Marginal instability to develop into the region with the warm
front lifting into the area. Temperatures will warm 10-15 deg
above normal with highs from near 50 north to around 60 south.

Do not have any additional thoughts on the flood watch but did
shave back the amount of rain expected - a little. Storm total
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches remains likely with locally higher
amounts possible. An already saturated ground with area rivers
and streams running high keeps this rainfall as an active
threat for flooding.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Secondary front will sweep across the region at the beginning
of the period. Strong pressure rises along with cold air
advection will result in robust winds, both sustained and gusts.

Latest guidance suggests that speeds might fall short of
warning criteria, but it is close enough to continue with the
high wind watch. Cannot rule out a few showers with this
boundary, but any additional precipitation amounts will be
light. After initial drop in temperatures Sunday morning,
readings will have little or no recovery in the afternoon.

Pressure gradient will start to relax Sunday night with winds
dropping off quite a bit by Monday as high pressure builds in.

Ecmwf remains steadfast in having the ridge extend into the area
through the rest of the week with colder temperatures compared
to other guidance. Have leaned towards GFS canadian which break
off a piece of the high and passes it to the east Monday night
into Tuesday. Then in response to a short wave, low pressure
develops and moves across the great lakes with a trailing cold
front crossing the area on Wednesday. This could bring some
light precipitation. Uncertainty increases further late in the
week with the potential for an inverted trough which would bring
another chance of precipitation. Temperatures are forecast to
be below normal through the period.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions will start out the TAF period with mid and high
clouds moving across the TAF sites. As a warm front pushes
northward showers will move into the TAF sites late in the
overnight hours and continue off and on through the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will shift and then increase during the
day, however most of the wind gusts will hold off until near or
after the end of the TAF period. Some low level wind shear will
be possible at that time too. CIGS will lower during the
morning and mid day hours on Saturday, however will see some
improvement to MVFR at some of the TAF sites late in the period.

A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Saturday
afternoon, however the better chance for thunderstorms will be
after the end of the TAF period and therefore decided to leave
out of the tafs at this time.

Outlook... MVFR conditions are possible from Saturday through
Sunday. There will be a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday
night. Strong winds are expected on Sunday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... High wind watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
evening for ohz026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065.

Flood watch from 7 am est Saturday through late Saturday night
for ohz079-081-082-088.

Ky... Flood watch from 7 am est Saturday through late Saturday night
for kyz094>100.

In... High wind watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
evening for inz050.

Synopsis... Franks novak
near term... Novak
short term... Franks
long term...

aviation... Novak


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Versailles Darke County Airport, OH14 mi75 minE 37.00 miFair32°F30°F93%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from VES (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N6N4NE5NE7NE6E8E5E6SE7E6E5E5E3CalmCalmE3E4E4
1 day agoW16
G21
W11
G19
W9W12
G20
W11W11
G19
W9
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W5W6W6W9W8W7SW8W8W6W9W8W5NW4NW4W3W3Calm
2 days agoE8E8SE9SE8E10E12
G16
E7NE6E14
G17
E11SE13SE14SE14
G20
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G16
SE12SE9S6S9S9SW6SW6W11W11W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.