Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:58PM Friday August 18, 2017 6:02 PM EDT (22:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:47AMMoonset 4:37PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 432 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am edt Saturday...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 455 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 2 ft. Showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold will cross the waters tonight. A pressure trough will remain nearby for Saturday and Sunday while high pressure positions itself just to our north and west. The high will move offshore early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
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location: 40.04, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 182137
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
537 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move through late today. An upper trough will
move across the area on Saturday. Temperatures will stay above
normal but rise even higher each day through Tuesday as a ridge
builds aloft. Another cold front should trigger showers around
mid-week and the week should end on a cooler note.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Radar shows the line of showers and thunderstorms pushing across
lancaster county. Only a few isolated showers behind the line.

Goes-16 shows another nice area of cool stable air near the ny
border behind the showers which moved across the northern tier.

Based on hrrr and radar the watch for the southeast has a
shorter shelf life than advertised. We may drop soon. Enhanced
words in zones and grids reflect the watch in the southeast.

Most areas will see steady improvement this evening to include a
lowering of the dew points! Enjoy!
some patchy fog will develop after mid-night.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Minor update with new data focusing showers in the afternoon.

No other significant changes.

Previous: the high pressure moving in finally clears everyone
out in the morning. Any low clouds in the NW will dissipate
nicely with the sunshine. The trouble there is that the
lingering moisture, the passage of the upper trough and
enhancement from a potent short wave coming around the base will
meet up at peak heating. These factors and the wind field will
generate multiple showers in the NW half of the area in the
aftn. Some of these will make some good gusts - and some could
get severe. A little small hail is also possible with colder air
aloft than today. SPC does have that area in a mrgl risk for
severe wx. The showers storms will struggle to get past the
allegheny front (roughly ipt-unv- aoo line). MAX temps will be
right near normals.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
The mid range models are all in good agreement on the timing and
strength of the passing shortwave Saturday night. Once that
passes, the heights will rise and become quasi-zonal. This will
bring fair weather to the region Sunday through Tuesday. Dry
westerly flow will also bring warm summertime temperatures with
Tuesday continually trending warmer. A new shortwave moving
through SRN canada will an bring an increasing chance for rain,
possibly as early as Tuesday afternoon over western sections of
the forecast area.

There are differences in timing of the rain with the ecmwf
suggesting it holds off until Tuesday night. Blended MOS pops
show a small chance of showers moving into western sections
Tuesday afternoon, but the highest pops are reserved for the
overnight.

Cyclonic flow aloft will then dominate the flow pattern through
Thursday. The cool air aloft will help trigger a few mainly
diurnal showers Wednesday and Thursday. The showers will tend to
favor northern and western higher elevations. Temperatures will
be significantly cooler for the second half of the week.

Aviation 22z Friday through Wednesday
Last of the thunderstorms now pushing east out of lancaster
county. Still some residual showers over the lower susquehanna
valley, and northeast of kipt, but expect these to
dissipate push east over the next few hours.

Have removed all mention of tsra and shra from the 21z taf
updates.

Fog is expected for most of the area tonight, with MVFR to ifr
restrictions.

An upper level trough and rather strong forcing passing
directly overhead in the cooler air aloft could make scattered
shra tsra across the northern third half of pennsylvania on
Saturday afternoon.

Much drier air will make for a mainly-vfr sun-mon with only
valley fog in the am a potential issue.

Outlook
Sat... MainlyVFR, but with sct shra tsra northern 1 3.

Sun-mon... MainlyVFR, but restrictions in morning fog.

Tue-wed... Shra tsra poss.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Grumm dangelo
short term... Grumm dangelo
long term... La corte ceru
aviation... Jung


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 37 mi32 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 85°F 1008.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi50 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 87°F 83°F1008.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi44 min SSW 4.1 G 6 87°F 78°F1008.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 50 mi50 min 85°F 1007.9 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA6 mi69 minE 510.00 miThunderstorm76°F75°F100%1008.4 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi67 minNW 79.00 miLight Rain81°F77°F89%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S7SE4SE5SE3SE5S5S5CalmS4SE4SE4SE5S3S4S5S76S8S10S13
G20
S9E5SE6
1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmCalmE4E4SE5SE7SE4SE8E8S7SE7SE6
2 days agoSE6CalmCalmSE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmW4W5W3W4CalmNW4NW46NW8W9NW6N4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:12 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:10 AM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:31 PM EDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.60.71.222.93.63.93.93.63.22.72.21.81.41.21.21.62.12.52.42.21.8

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:49 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:53 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:30 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:46 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.50.91.62.22.62.72.62.31.81.410.60.30.30.61.11.51.91.91.81.41.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.