Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:47PM Saturday November 18, 2017 5:25 AM EST (10:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:46AMMoonset 5:20PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 332 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 332 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. A strong cold front will move across the waters late tonight into early Sunday morning and high pressure will build to our south later Sunday through Monday. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
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location: 40.04, -76.3     debug

Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 181013
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
513 am est Sat nov 18 2017

An intensifying storm system will move through the great lakes
today. A strong cold front will blast through late tonight. Cold
gusty winds and some lake effect snow will then affect the area
Sunday into Monday. High pressure will bring improving
conditions through the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High clouds cover the entire area and lots of radar returns are
covering all of far WRN pa now. The rainfall from this swath of
precip are a tenth of an inch or so. The rain will be trying to
work down into the 20 dewpoints in place right now. The big
problem with this band of rain is that the temps have sunk to
well below freezing in spots, ESP valleys, overnight. Now, the
wind has begin to come out of the south and it has warmed a deg
or two in spots, but many valleys are still in the 20s. The
temps should rise a few more degrees as before the rain
arrives. But, we have made mentions in the hwo and and sps about
pockets of fzra possible this morning. This threat should end
by 8-9am when everybody should be above freezing.

The rain will spread across the region this morning, and become
more spotty showery this afternoon. The lower elevations of the
central and northeast mountains will have little chance to warm
up as the warm southerly wind passes right overhead. Will keep
maxes in the central mtns in the lower 40s. The WRN and srn
edges of the CWA have a chance to get into the lower 50s. But...

i wouldn't hold my breath.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
By nightfall, the sfc low associated with the impending storm
will be over le and deepening. The pressure rise behind the
front will be 8-12mb in 3hrs, and that fast rise is usually a
good signal that it will be accompanied by strong winds. Bufkit
profiles portray winds in the lowest 3kft being in the 40s
tonight just before and for a few hours after the front passes.

Trouble for mixing down to the sfc is that most of the area will
be under a strong cold-air damming (read: stable) set up. The
pressure rise is strongest over the south, and the higher
elevations like the laurels will have the strongest winds. Have
posted a wind advy for the swrn counties, eyeing top-end
sustained speeds of 25-30kts and 40-45kt MAX gusts. The advy may
need to be expanded to cover more of the forecast area if it
looks just a little windier than it does currently. The gusty
wind will subside but not die out during the post-sunrise
morning hours on Sunday.

There is a slight chance of some thunder tonight as the front
nears and passes. But, the convection would be detached from the
surface with the cold air in place and is not expected to pose
a damage threat. Have only mentioned t in the south tonight
where 8h li's drop below zero and CAPE is more than zilch for a
few hours. Temps will be a roller coaster tonight with a rise in
most places before and perhaps even slightly after fropa, and
then a hard drop as the CAA kicks in. Sunrise temps will get
close to freezing in the nw. The precip left at that time may
turn to snow as well in the nw.

The cold air continues to drop the temp profiles evenly and snow
is the dominant p-type on Sunday, but it will still be too mild
anywhere but the NW mtns and laurels to allow it to stick. At
this point, the les looks relatively tame during the daytime

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Deep strong cold air advection with -10c air at 850 mb will
cross lake erie. Water temps are in the mid-upper 40s, which
results in an extreme lake-850 mb delta t of 18c Sunday
afternoon and evening across the perennial snowbelt of NW pa.

Winter weather advisory criteria could be reached from this
upcoming bout of les, considering anticipated 4-6 inch forecast
snow amounts over a 24 hour period. Elsewhere, much lighter
snow amounts of a coating to 2 inches will occur from sinuous
bands of snow showers and briefly heavy squalls that should make
it well into the central ridge and valley region and portions
of the susq valley based on fairly strong 35 to 45 kt NW winds
in the deep and cold boundary layer. The high shear may rip the
bands apart, though. With uncertainty of getting to the 12hr
advy accum threshold (3+"), we will hold off on any 2nd-3rd-4th
period advy. We will try to refine the time of most heaviest

High pressure sliding by to our south will influence the
weather to start thanksgiving week, bringing a couple of cool-
dry days. Temperatures will begin to moderate Tuesday with a
gusty SW flow expected to develop as potent sub-1000 mb low
pressure passes by across southern ontario and quebec. Tuesday
will be the lone day in the mon-fri period when 850 mb temps
will poke a few to several deg c above zero.

Though the jet stream will remain north of the region, a quick
moving trough will brush the region on Wed followed by a weak
shortwave Wed night, which will bring chance for periods of snow
showers (with light accums of a coating to 2 inches) back into
the NW zones, along with a return of slightly cooler air.

Flurries or brief snow showers will occur just SE of the
allegheny front.

12z GFS and ec have trended into better agreement on a deepening
upper low across southeastern canada or the NE u.S. Over the
thanksgiving weekend. Surface and 850 mb temps could be a few
deg colder than our upcoming cold outbreak later this weekend.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
WidespreadVFR noted across the region at 09z, but
deteriorating flying conditions are expected late this morning,
as rain and lowering CIGS overspread the area in advance of low
pressure lifting out of the mississippi valley. Rain is expected
to overspread the airspace between 10-16z with a few pockets of
freezing rain possible on the leading edge over the north-
central airspace. Confidence is low on fzra risk and it would
only last for a short duration.

Periods of rain will continue through the day with
predominantly ifr lifr CIGS over the northern mountains (kbfd),
where the southerly flow ascends the high terrain. Elsewhere,
model soundings support predominantly MVFR cigs, with brief ifr
vsby possible in heavier showers.

Model soundings indicating borderline llws over the western
portion of the airspace early today. However, there appears a
better, more widespread chance of llws this evening, as a core
of strong winds aloft lift over the region. Southerly winds
may become gusty late this evening over the western and southern
airspace, as strong winds aloft begin mixing to ground level.

Latest NAM hrrr suggests gusts in the 20-30kt range are possible
between 00z-06z Sunday.


sun... Windy with frequent gusts 30-40kts from 270-300 degrees.

Ifr snow showers NW trending MVFR central toVFR east.

Mon... Am shsn reduced vsbys possible NW mountains.

Tue-wed... No sig wx expected.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to noon est Sunday for

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Dangelo
short term... Dangelo
long term... Lambert
aviation... Fitzgerald

Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA6 mi33 minENE 410.00 miFair30°F26°F85%1015 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair34°F24°F70%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW13
1 day agoCalmSW3W5SW7W7SW9W11W14
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE4E9SE5SE7E3SE6S7SE6SE6SE7CalmCalmE3E4SE4CalmS6SE4NE3SE3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Sat -- 06:01 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:04 AM EST     2.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:07 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:53 PM EST     2.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
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Sat -- 04:14 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:41 AM EST     1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:38 PM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.