Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:23PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:28AMMoonset 4:48PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 802 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 802 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move up the coast near the delmarva tonight. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will cross the waters late Thursday. High pressure will arrive by Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
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location: 40.04, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 232337
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
737 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Weak system passing to our south today producing mainly clouds.

A very deep upper low will bring clouds across the region
Wednesday with rain developing overnight and into Thursday. This
deep low will produce cooler showery weather through Friday. As
this low lifts out Friday into Saturday a weak upper-level ridge
should provide several relatively nice days to start the
memorial day weekend. Alas another low may approach the region
on memorial day.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Showers just creeping over the mason dixon line this
evening... Perhaps slightly north of the latest hrrr solution.

Bkn-ovc skies cover southern and eastern halves of the
commonwealth as wave undercuts the region from the south.

Passing light rain is expected across the southern third to half
of the commonwealth... As mid to late afternoon model runs
continue to nudge an area of showers into the central mountains
after dark. Amounts will be very light... With highest amounts
remaining below one tenth of an inch near the md border. Expect
areas of patchy fog across the southern half of pa as well.

Overnight lows will range generally through the 50s.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Tomorrow we should be mostly between systems. The clouds and
moisture from the wave to our southeast should be pulling away
overnight. And the clouds and rain from the deep 500 hpa low
will be heading our way from the west-southwest.

Most areas should have a pretty nice day, but once again on the
cloudier side of things. Kept pops in the chance range in
southwest before 18 utc and brought them up higher and into
central pa by 00 utc.

Sometime from 2100 utc Wed to about 0300 utc it's going to get
wet. But highest probability of rainfall in current guidance
will likely be on Thursday. New guidance might change this.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
As upper low drops into the tn valley Wed night, surface low
develops over the ohio valley with a warm front extending
eastward across the mid atlantic states. Initial question will
be timing of onset of precip over cwa. Precip will be working
across W pa by early eve and will spread eastward as flow turns
from the SE around to the s, overspreading all of central pa by
the overnight hours. System slides through Thu into Thu night,
with a widespread rainfall around 0.75 inch.

On Friday, cool cyclonic flow on backside of departing cyclone
will maintain risk for showers. A lower-amplitude mid level flow
pattern will develop into the weekend with some ridging likely
at 500mb. Uncertainty regarding location and timing of shortwave
impulses rounding the ridge and effect of prior upstream
convection leaves plenty of question marks for Saturday - but
there is more agreement in area of MAX pops over S oh into wv
and SW pa in the afternoon.

Nbm ece blend yielded the highest pops for Sunday across
central pa associated with cold front moving south eastward
across the great lakes appalachians. A severe risk may accompany
the cold front but still to early for details. The large scale
pattern evolves into a broadly cyclonic regime into early next
week around an upper low between the great lakes and hudson bay.

This should keep the pattern unsettled with continued threat
for showers tstorms through Tuesday.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Most of the flying area is under a blanket of high clouds. Far
sern pa is closer to an area of rain that is blossoming up over
the mid atlantic states and will continue to spread ne
overnight.

Expect the mainly light rain to move into about the southern
half of the forecast area during the mid to late evening with
MVFR ifr conditions developing. Northern areas will see just
spotty light showers and widespread subVFR conditions are not
expected.

Conditions will improve slowly Wednesday morning with most areas
improving toVFR by mid day. MVFR could hang tough over the
laurels.

Clouds will increase west to east as another system approaches
with rain and reduced conditions overnight Wednesday into
Thursday.

Outlook
Thu... Rain low CIGS likely through at least midday.

Fri... Showers MVFR CIGS nw. MainlyVFR se.

Sat... No sig wx expected.

Sun... Reduced conditions with scattered showers.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Grumm
near term... Grumm devoir
short term... Grumm
long term... Rxr steinbugl
aviation... La corte


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 37 mi36 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 1009.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi50 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 68°F1010 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi50 min S 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 65°F1010 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 50 mi44 min 65°F 1009.6 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA6 mi33 minN 08.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F57°F81%1009.7 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi51 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds61°F53°F77%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW3W4SW3NW4SW4NW4SW3CalmCalmCalmN4E5E5SE8E7SE6E3SE3E3E3Calm
1 day agoS11SE8SE10S8SE4SE5SE5E5E3E4E6E6E6E6SE5E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm
2 days agoE4SE4SE4SE4S4SE3CalmE4E5E6E3Calm4SE8S6SE9SE10SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Tue -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:06 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:20 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.10.80.60.60.91.72.53.33.63.53.12.72.21.71.30.90.811.52.12.52.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:08 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:18 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:40 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60.40.50.81.422.52.72.62.31.91.410.60.50.50.81.31.82.12.221.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.