Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:20PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 3:35 PM EDT (19:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 6:59AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 136 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Wednesday. A warm front will approach the waters Wednesday night before passing through Thursday. A cold front will stall out near the waters late this week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters late Wednesday night through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
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location: 40.04, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 211857
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
257 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will build east across the commonwealth
tonight and slide off the mid atlantic coast by Wednesday
evening. Fair weather will prevail through Wednesday afternoon,
but much higher humidity will surge into the state from the
ohio valley Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Pennsylvania will be on
the northern periphery of a building subtropical ridge late this
week and over the upcoming weekend. This will mean occasional
bouts of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Near term through tonight
Scattered to broken mainly thin high cloud remnants from
overnight and early morning midwestern convective clusters are
streaming across parts of western and central pa this afternoon.

A brisk north to northwest flow is making temperatures in the
50s and 60s feel much cooler, but at least it's fair and
pleasantly cool. Seeing gusts in the teens and lower 20s thanks
to rather efficient 3-5k agl mixing height.

Expect to see better decoupling tonight as sfc high builds into
the region. Winds will become light after 00z, and given still
dry air over much of the cwa, expect similar, if not cooler min
temps early Wednesday morning. We saw local mid 30 readings over
warren and mckean counties this morning, so will mention patchy
frost there as most areas should remain in the upper 30s for
lows. Official growing season began in these areas today. Min
temps at sunrise Wed will generally vary from the upper 30s in
the perennial cold spots of the north, to around 50f in the
larger metro areas of the southeast, but we could again see
highly localized mid 30s in the coldest spots.

Short term Wednesday
After a fair tranquil and cool start with high pressure
overhead, southeasterly llvl flow will increase during the day
as the high pressure ridge drifts off the nj coast. Several
layers of clouds will also form advect east into region as the
nose of much higher pwat air (30-35mm or +2-3 sigma) spreads
into western pa late in the day. A small chc for showers exists
across the northern tier and alleghenies of west-central pa
later in the afternoon and evening Wednesday, and kept low chc
pops in the forecast for the NW mountains as a result. Highs
will moderate into the upper 60s and 70s throughout with a
noticeable uptick in humidity in the afternoon as dewpoints
rise through the 60s.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Naefs indicates pennsylvania will be on the northern periphery
of a building subtropical ridge later this week into the weekend.

The most significant weather during the extended looks like it
will be on Thursday when the ingredients for a severe storm
outbreak look most likely.

Models show an advancing warm front late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. The deterministic models all show some remnant
convection sliding through pa associated with the warm front and at
least one weak shortwave aloft that will be racing over the top
of the eastern ridge.

Progged stability indices indicate the warm front will move
through the CWA Thursday morning, with moderate instability
developing over the region during the late morning into the
afternoon hours. A robust shortwave is made to approach during
the second half of the day pushing a potent mid level speed max
down and through the area during the afternoon hours. Deep layer
flow will be out of the wnw and, and despite the relatively
weak bulk wind shear, the models develop impressive helicity on
the order of 2-3(m^2 sec^2). The most likely scenario will be
for storms to develop over the lower lakes and spread ese across
the region during the afternoon in short lines and bowing
segments along with the possibility of isolated supercells.

In the wake of the Thursday system a slightly cooler and drier
day is in store for Friday. By Saturday the humidity will begin
to return along with a chance of mainly diurnal showers storms.

As a weak shortwave once again races over the top of the eastern
ridge. We look to get a break on Sunday as the 12z models
show a mainly dry day, but by the Monday-Tuesday timeframe more
showers become possible as we stay in fast flow aloft near the
top of the subtropical ridge.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
A ridge of high pressure will build east across the commonwealth
today and slide off the mid atlantic coast Wednesday evening.

Vfr expected over all routes today and tonight. NW winds will
persist at 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph before diminishing
by sunset.VFR conds prevail tonight and Wednesday, with winds
shifting to the southeast and increasing later Wednesday
morning afternoon.

Outlook
Tue-wed... MainlyVFR.

Thu...VFR into the afternoon, then strong thunderstorms possible
mid afternoon into Thu night.

Fri... Ceiling restrictions poss NW early, then mainlyVFR.

Sat... Scattered restrictions possible from potential showers
and thunderstorms.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Devoir
near term... Devoir
short term... Lambert
long term... La corte
aviation... Devoir rxr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi41 min NW 11 G 14 67°F 70°F1016.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi41 min N 8 G 15 66°F 63°F1015.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 50 mi41 min 69°F 63°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA6 mi42 minNW 12 G 1710.00 miFair69°F44°F41%1016 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi40 minNNW 10 G 1610.00 miFair66°F41°F40%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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E4SE4S8NW14SE3E4CalmCalmW5W3CalmCalmW9SW12SW11
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2 days agoSW7S7SE4SE5SE4S5CalmS6SE6SE5SE8E3E4E3E3NE3E434S7SE4SE8S7SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:52 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:18 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.22.11.81.410.80.60.611.72.63.33.73.63.42.92.41.91.410.80.81.1

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:16 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:11 PM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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221.71.40.90.60.40.50.91.52.22.72.92.82.52.11.61.10.70.40.30.611.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.