Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:47PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 11:24 AM EST (16:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:13PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 939 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Rest of today..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow late this morning, then snow or sleet or rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less... Increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of rain.
Sat..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 939 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong low pressure system will impact the region throug tonight. Low pressure will then push off to the north and east on Thursday as a frontal boundary passes through the waters. High pressure will build to the north on Friday and another cold front will cross the waters on Sunday. Small craft conditions will be possible on Thursday, and likely on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.04, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kctp 200945
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
445 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A winter storm will bring snow, ice and difficult travel to
central pennsylvania on Wednesday. Conditions will improve into
Thursday as a breezy west wind directs drier air into the region.

Fair weather will continue into Friday before another round of
precipitation over the weekend. It will turn windy and colder
Sunday night into Monday with little to no precipitation
expected early next week.

Near term through tonight
*significant snow and ice accumulation for south-central pa
robust isentropic lift theta-e advection behind very moist
southerly flow and synoptic ascent associated with 150kt jet
streak to the north will produce widespread wintry precipitation
across central pa today into tonight. The leading edge of
precipitation (snow) at 0930z has lifted north of md line to
the pa tpke over the southwest mtns and should reach the us-322
corridor around 13z.

Thermal profiles are cold enough for all snow to start the
event. Hires model guidance continues to indicate a heavy burst
or "thump" of WAA snow across south-central pa this morning.

This initial, ~3-6hr snow burst will be driven by a brief but
intense period of low to mid level fgen. The 00z href
confirms high probability of 1-2 in hr snowfall rates in the
12-18z window. The duration of intense snow will be somewhat
limited, as the warm nose aloft will lift northward turning
precipitation from snow to ice (sleet freezing rain) in most
places this afternoon.

One concern is guidance may be too quick to warm the column due
to reinforcement of the wedge by initial evaporative cooling
(09z dewpoint depressions running 10-15+ degrees) and falling
precipitation (moderate to heavy snow). This would be a boom
scenario for snow totals and would add a couple of inches on to
current fcst. This is also important from a winter headline
perspective as it could push storm total amounts from advisory
to warning levels. Conversely, a quicker change or mix with
sleet would trim snow totals. Precipitation will changeover from
snow to ice from southwest to northeast leading to a prolonged
period of freezing rain across a good portion of south-central
pa especially the higher terrain ridges from the laurel
highlands into the southern alleghenies.

The heaviest snowfall of 6-8" in fcst over far south-central pa
just north of the WV md panhandles. 3-6" is projected
throughout the lower susquehanna valley and along the i-80
corridor. 1-3" is fcst over the northern tier with the lowest
amounts along the ny border. The heaviest freezing rain is
likely in the terrain zones mentioned above, where a risk
exists for >0.25" of ice accretion even after the snowfall.

A second wave of heavier QPF appears likely in the 00-06z thu
timeframe which would fall mainly as freezing rain. This could
push some of the advisory area close to warning level freezing
rain ice accumulation. Precip intensity will decrease btwn
06-09z with west wind shift drying things out east of the
alleghenies. The shift to upslope flow favors the highest pops
over the western ridges into the predawn hours Thursday.

Temperatures will slowly climb above freezing overnight with
light rain becoming the most likely dominant ptype by 12z
Thursday.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Breezy and dry wx expected on Thursday with temps rebounding
into the 40s. High pressure returns Thu night into Friday
bringing fair and dry weather.

Another shot of WAA precip into a retreating cold sector
with departing sfc high pressure is likely heading into the
weekend. Timing will be important with a period of snow or ice to
start the weekend over south-central pa.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Aside from an initial period of mixed precipitation early
Saturday, expect periods of rain throughout the weekend.

Temperatures will trend milder Saturday into Sunday with
fcst highs in the upper 40s north to near 60f in the lsv.

It will turn windy and colder into early next week. Model
guidance suggest advisory level wind gusts are possible Sunday
night into Monday. The colder NW flow should produce snow
showers downwind of lake erie. Otherwise, the wx looks mainly
dry Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
No big changes to the late evening TAF updates.

Earlier discussion below.

For the 00z tafs, looking atVFR conditions overnight with
mid and high clds.

Snow moves in from southwest to northeast from just before
sunrise at jst, to other areas by mid to late morning.

Sleet and freezing rain becomes the problem by afternoon, as
the warm front nears. Conditions will become poor with llws
as well.

The precipitation becomes lighter Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

Outlook...

wed... Snow (ocnly heavy during the late morning and early
afternoon) changing to to a wintry mix, then mainly freezing
rain before nightfall.

Thu... Am light freezing rain low CIGS possible early.

Fri... Am low CIGS possible W mtns.

Sat... Pm rain low CIGS possible.

Sun... Showers, mild, and windy. Low conditions possible.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for paz004>006-037-042.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for paz010>012-017>019-041-045-046-049>053-058.

Winter storm warning until 6 am est Thursday for paz024>026-
033>036.

Winter storm warning from 6 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for paz027-028-056-057-059-063>066.

Synopsis... Steinbugl
near term... Steinbugl
short term... Steinbugl
long term... Steinbugl
aviation... Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi37 min E 2.9 G 6 27°F 39°F1035.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi37 min E 9.9 G 12 27°F 34°F1035.2 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 50 mi43 min 27°F 38°F1035.4 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
N9
G13
N9
G13
N11
G18
N7
G11
N7
G11
NW6
G9
NW3
--
S1
N1
--
SW1
--
SE1
W1
NE1
E1
NE2
SE1
SE2
E3
SE4
G8
SE7
E6
1 day
ago
NW12
G18
W18
G22
NW16
G24
NW15
G22
NW13
G20
NW17
G21
NW11
G15
NW12
G15
NW6
G11
NW9
G13
NW10
G14
NW9
G13
NW8
G13
NW8
G11
N7
G11
NW5
G8
N3
N5
G10
NW3
NW4
NW9
NW9
G12
NW6
G11
NW8
G12
2 days
ago
S2
G8
E3
S2
G7
SE6
G9
S6
SE3
S3
SE2
G6
SE4
SE2
N2
NW2
G5
SE8
G12
SE2
SE3
G9
NW2
--
N1
G5
SW1
W2
NW4
W4
G7
W5
G8
W9
G13

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA6 mi32 minESE 100.25 miSnow Freezing Fog27°F25°F92%1033.8 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi50 minE 7 G 130.50 miLight Snow25°F23°F93%1034.5 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrW8NW9NW7NW7NW6NW8W4NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmS3E3CalmNE4E4E6E5E4SE4SE10SE10SE10
1 day agoW23
G34
NW17
G24
NW21
G28
NW19
G29
NW16
G21
NW17
G24
NW13NW9NW11NW12NW12NW14
G19
NW12NW10NW11NW7NW6NW9W6W7NW8NW9NW11NW9
2 days agoS4E4SE11S7S7S6S7SE6SE6SE33SE5SE3E4E3SE4CalmCalmCalmSW3W6W7W8W11

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Port Deposit
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:28 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:47 AM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:10 PM EST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:36 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
2.421.510.40-0.2-0.20.31.11.71.91.71.30.70.2-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.10.91.82.4

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:42 AM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:14 AM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:20 PM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.71.20.60.1-0.3-0.4-0.10.51.21.71.91.91.61.10.70.2-0.1-0.20.10.81.52.12.42.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (11,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.