Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 1:41 PM   Moonset 2:03 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1034 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of tonight - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

ANZ500 1034 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will track to the south of the waters this weekend, bringing unsettled conditions to the area. High pressure will build over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, before a cold front approaches during the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Saturday and Sunday.

FXUS61 KCTP 170324 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1124 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
* Rain-free for most and seasonably warmer into Friday with areas of fog and low clouds overnight * Another cloudy/wet start to the weekend followed by marginal/gradual improvement on Sunday (Saturday* Trending warmer and drying out Monday & Tuesday before showers and t-storms return next Wednesday

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Another tricky fog forecast tonight. Winds should go calm under a ridge of high pressure centered over the Central mountains, but the arrival of high clouds in the northwest toward daybreak and the westward extend of low clouds in eastern PA complicate the fog forecast in both locations. Highest confidence in some patchy valley fog in the south central mountains up through IPT by daybreak Friday where clear skies are most likely. Lows will be fairly uniform in the mid 50s tonight, or +5-10F above climo for mid May.

SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Fog and low clouds could be stubborn to lift on Friday morning, but some improvement is expected by midday with high clouds streaming in ahead of the next weather system. Showers and a couple of t-storms will reach the western zones around 18Z/2PM based on the latest hires ensemble mean guidance. These showers will continue to propagate slowly eastward tomorrow afternoon within a relatively moist (PW 1-1.5") and marginally unstable airmass (bulk of instability progged to stay west of the Allegheny Plateau).

Scattered showers will continue into Saturday as southeasterly flow helps keep overcast skies and cooler conditions in place.
Don't think Saturday will be a washout, but it will keep the trend of dreary Saturday weather in tact. Limited instability under overcast skies will eliminate any chance of thunder on Saturday outside of southwest Somerset County where a decaying thunderstorm could traverse the region. The highest POPs/QPF will be over the southern portion of the area Friday night into Saturday with the highest rainfall amounts in southwest Pennsylvania where upwards of an inch of rain is possible.
Rainfall amounts decrease with eastward extent where around a quarter inch of rain is expected for locations along and east of US-15. Temperatures on Saturday will top out in the 60s, though a classic cold air damming scenario could keep highs in the upper 50s in a few locations.

Improving conditions are likely on Saturday as an area of high pressure over the northeast sags southward. This will promote some breaks in the clouds and a bit milder temperatures. Some uncertainty remains in how stubborn the clouds will be on Sunday, but Sunday looks much better than Saturday for outdoor plans and activities.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
*Drying trend with more sun and warmer temperatures Mon-Tue.

Decent model and ensemble signal for dry weather and more sunshine leading to a seasonal warming trend next Monday- Wednesday as a potential cutoff low parks over the western Atlantic and high pressure builds overhead. Max temps are forecast to climb back into the 75-85F range through Wednesday.

By the middle of next week, upper troughing will move across Pennsylvania and support a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, there remains plenty of model uncertainty about the timing of a cold front. The mean timing is Wednesday afternoon, but individual models bring precipitation as early as Tuesday evening and as a late as Thursday morning.
If the front moves through Wednesday afternoon or evening, it could produce the first threat for severe weather in some time.

After the front moves through, considerable uncertainty exists in terms of how much and how frequent rain will be. Have kept a chance of showers in place through the end of the week. Fairly high confidence in temperatures being close to average in zonal flow.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Widespread VFR conditions are noted across Central PA late this evening. However, low cigs across Eastern PA and NJ are poised to overspread the region late tonight, as light northerly winds shift to the east. Model soundings indicate patchy MVFR cigs could develop as early as 04Z at KLNS and reach the central mountains by around 08Z. Where the flow is forced to ascend the Alleghenies, a brief period of IFR is even possible around dawn in the vicinity of KJST/KAOO.

Ceiling bases should gradually elevate late Friday morning, with VFR over much of the region by midday. However, an approaching warm front will spread showers and lowering cigs into the western half of PA during the late afternoon and evening. Latest ensemble prob charts indicate IFR cigs will become likely (60-80pct) by early evening over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, with MVFR cigs likely at the lower elevations airfields and VFR likely persisting across the Susq Valley from KIPT south to KLNS.

Outlook...

Sat...Restrictive lower ceilings, rain, and fog/mist. This is a fairly high confidence forecast.

Sun...Morning low cigs/fog possible.

Mon...Patchy AM fog possible.

Tue...No sig wx expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Thu -- 01:27 AM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:21 PM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:28 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Thu -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:18 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:18 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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