Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seven Springs, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:35PM Saturday May 25, 2019 9:41 AM EDT (13:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:35AMMoonset 10:51AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seven Springs , PA
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location: 40.04, -79.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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Fxus61 kpbz 251200 aab
afdpbz
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service pittsburgh pa
800 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
A return of warm, wet weather can be expected over the weekend.

Strong to severe storms are possible on both Saturday and Sunday. A
cold front will move through by Sunday night, making for a brief
break in rain.

Near term through tonight
8am update... Delayed storm initiate to closer to noon when daytime
heating will be closer or surpass convective initiation temperature.

Slight tweaks to QPF and temps, but the overall trends remain the
same.

Previous discussion...

the region sits at the northern periphery of a strong SE CONUS high
pressure. Heights will lower as the upper-level flow becomes more
quasi-zonal with the influence of a strong low pressure over south-central
canada. Insolation and deep moist, warm air advection in the
boundary layer under modest mid-level lapse rates will lead to rather
substantial destabilization by late morning. Ensembles cluster
mlcape values around 1500 j kg during peak heating.

A weak perturbation in the flow may help initiate some isolated
convection in the late morning and early afternoon. Model soundings
depict a rather favorable environment for all modes of severe
weather, though the primary threat will be strong and possibly
damaging downburst winds in the strongest of cells.

More widespread convection will be likely later in the afternoon and
evening with the passage of a weak trough. Discrete convection is
expected at first, though some convective allowing models (cams)
suggest organization into a MCS is possible by the early evening. All
modes of severe weather will be possible. The tornado threat
increases later in the day as low level hodograph profile and storm
motion becomes more favorable for the ingestion of streamwise
vorticity. However, the earlier convection and cloud cover may
possibly mar this second round if available buoyancy becomes limited.

Convection will exit the region to the east by midnight with the
trough passage. Temperatures will remain warm through the period,
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s expected Saturday and lows in the
60s Saturday night.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
Models suggest a weak boundary will stall across the northern
portion of the CWA by Sunday morning, which may act as an initial
focus Sunday afternoon before the arrival of a cold front. Another
weak shortwave, embedded in quasi-zonal flow on the northern
periphery of southeast CONUS high pressure, will progress through the
region late Sunday afternoon.

Convection will initiate by mid afternoon as the atmosphere
undergoes diurnal destabilization under modest mid-level lapse
rates. The frontal boundary will gradually progress southward through
the afternoon and evening. Sufficient deep layer shear and lift
should promote loosely organized storms moving close to parallel that
of the w-e oriented cold front boundary. With such motion, localized
heavy rain and flash flooding is certainly possible and will have to
be monitored.

By late evening, convection will have diminished as ridging and
subsidence builds in wake of the shortwave trough. The region will be
in a bit of a saddle point in terms of low level flow. With little or
no wind and a likely saturated boundary layer, dense fog formation
is certainly possible Monday morning. This will be highly dependent
on the antecedent convection. Temperatures will fall into the 50s to
low 60s by dawn Monday.

Long term Monday through Friday
Strong southeast CONUS ridging will continue to influence our
sensible weather. Warm conditions will continue through the forecast
with daily rain chances with each passing shortwave trough on the
northern periphery of this high.

Models do suggest a longwave pattern change by next weekend.

However, the area will likely remain in quasi-zonal flow aloft, with
several transient shortwave troughs, and thus, periodic rain chances.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late
this morning into the early afternoon as daytime heating
destabilizes the environment. However, there may be enough mid-
level warm air advection to hamper the instability, which would limit
the strength and widespread development of storms. Given a nose of
dry air aloft, gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm.

By tonight, a weak shortwave trough will cross the region and provide
a more focused lifting mechanism for thunderstorm development. This
will result in a line of storms developing around lake erie and
moving southeast, potentially impacting terminals along and north of
i-70. There remains some uncertainty on the strength and positioning
of this feature and how prior convection could hamper its
environment, but enough confidence exists for a prob30 mention.

MVFR to ifr cig restrictions are expected to develop Sunday morning
as moisture advection gets trapped underneath a low level inversion.

Confidence is highest along i-80 where moisture from evening
convection and clearing behind the storms will best allow for the
inversion to develop.

As the surface pressure gradient tightens this afternoon, south-
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible.

Outlook
Periodic restrictions are possible Sunday with additional showers
and thunderstorms along a stationary boundary. Additional rounds of
precipitation is expected after Tuesday.

Pbz watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Wv... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Latrobe / Westmorland, PA18 mi54 minN 020.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F66°F94%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from LBE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW8NW6W8NW10W10W15W7W10N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW14
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G25
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--SW15SW15SW15
G25
W15W15
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W11
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SW15SW8NW15
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SW5W6W8NW6W4W3S4W6NW4
2 days agoE6--SE10E10E9E10E12E12E10E12E8CalmS64
G10
CalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmSW11--SW17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.