Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Head, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:09PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:56 AM EDT (10:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 6:21AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 648 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Monday afternoon...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft late this morning and afternoon. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early this morning.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of tstms in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of tstms early in the evening. A chance of showers until early morning.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 648 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. As a large low pressure system lifts into the great lakes region, an associated trough will swing through our region this evening. The low will also bring a cold front to our region Monday afternoon and evening, followed by high pressure building in through Wednesday. A warm front lifts across our area late Thursday. Another cold front could arrive on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Head , NJ
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location: 40.06, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190905
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
505 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
As a large low pressure system lifts into the great lakes region, an
associated trough will swing through our region this evening. The
low will also bring a cold front to our region Monday afternoon and
evening, followed by high pressure building in through Wednesday. A
warm front lifts across our area late Thursday. Another cold front
could arrive on Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Scattered showers will be possible through the early morning hours.

A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible with the stronger
showers. Currently, several areas of showers exist over central
delmarva and over portions of montgomery and bucks counties.

Eventually these will shift off to the north and east as a warm
front lifts completely through the area. Warmer today, with perhaps
the warmest day of the year thus far for some locations. Highs will
range from the mid to upper 80s across DELMARVA to the upper 70s
across the pocono plateau.

High pressure will continue to drift further offshore, thus we loose
some of the protection from showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Sunny skies along with moist, southerly flow will lead to
modest instability this afternoon. This will likely aid in the
formation of storms as a pre-frontal trough moves southeast into our
area this afternoon and evening. In fact, forecast mid-level cape
values exceed 3000 j kg across portions of the lehigh valley and
northern delmarva. Low level shear values nearing 30 knots, will
help keep any convection organized as well. Cams suggest several
multicell clusters of storms may form over the higher terrain of
central pa by 4 pm and move off to the east through the afternoon
and evening, possibly organizing into one or more qlcs-type
features. Forecast soundings show a relatively dry layer near 600
mb, thus there is the potential for some wet microbursts that could
lead to isolated damaging wind gusts. Small hail is also possible,
though a few reports up to one inch in diameter are not out of the
realm of possibility. At this point, the greatest threat appears to
be for damaging winds along and west of the i-95 urban corridor,
though some stronger storms may hold together east of this line into
the early nighttime hours.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
Storms should end by midnight, with some residual showers lingering
into the remainder of the overnight. Otherwise, it should be fairly
quiet tonight weather-wise. It will likely be a warm and muggy
night, however, especially for areas that seem more substantial
rainfall this evening. Temperatures will only fall into the upper
60s to near 70 as we remain ahead of the cold front, poised to move
through the region Monday afternoon.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Summary: we start the long term with a focus on the cold front
crossing the region Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure
builds in Tuesday and Wednesday. After that, our region will be on
the northern periphery of a large ridge across the southeastern u.S.

With a few chances for showers as troughs ride around the ridge.

Details:
Monday... Still looks like the front should arrive in our region
during the late afternoon into evening time frame. As with the
previous shift, there is some uncertainty as to how much
coverage there will be with showers and thunderstorms ahead of
and along the front. Part of the issue is that the mid and upper
level vorticity maximum stays well northwest of the region. Thus
lift will be dependent on low level lift along the front, and
divergent flow in the left front quadrant of an upper level jet
which may nose over our region briefly in the evening. However,
there should be plenty of moisture and instability within the
warm sector, so if the lift is enough for convective initiation,
we should see some thunderstorms. Bulk shear values of 30 to 35
kt along with a 700 mb 40kt southwesterly jet means there is a
chance for strong winds with thunderstorms, though the timing of
the jet and best shear (mostly between 00 and 03z, after sunset)
will be a limiting factor on how efficient storms will be able
to mix winds down.

Tuesday and Wednesday... As a trough starts to exit the northeast
late Tuesday, ridging builds from the great lakes region southward
ahead of a strong upper-level trough moving into the central plains.

This will allow surface high pressure to build into our area from
the northwest, with a cooler and drier airmass in place. As the
ridge builds eastward more Wednesday, the surface high will shift
eastward as well. A warm front advancing northeastward from the ohio
valley will start to arrive into our area Wednesday night. As a
result, the dew points will start to creep up Wednesday night
however it is not expected to become all that humid yet.

Thursday through Saturday... The broad mid and upper level ridge
builds over the southeastern u.S., leaving our region on the
northern periphery of the ridge. As troughs embedded in the flow
cross our region through this time, they could each bring
chances for precipitation. However, trying to time out these
troughs in this patter, is very uncertain. Therefore, have
stayed close to the previous forecast.

Aviation 09z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR, though some MVFR conditions are possible with showers
and thunderstorms early this morning and later this afternoon and
evening. Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots
possible. Locally higher gusts to 50 knots are possible this evening
with the strongest thunderstorms.

Tonight... MVFR ceilings with residual rain showers, otherwise
turningVFR. Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots, with gusts to 15
knots possible.

Outlook...

Monday... MostlyVFR conditions are expected. Some showers and
thunderstorms are possible especially in the afternoon and early
evening. If these move over any TAF site, then brief MVFR conditions
are possible. Southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with
afternoon gusts to 20-25 knots. An abrupt shift to northwesterly is
expected with a cold front moving through Monday afternoon and
evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected. Northwesterly
winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing at night.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR conditions are expected.

Winds will start off light and variable, becoming southwesterly 5 to
10 kt on Thursday.

Marine
Today and tonight... Sub SCA conditions expected with southeasterly
winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, building to 5 feet by Monday
morning.

Outlook...

Monday... SCA conditions (both due to gusts around 25 kt and wave
heights around 5 feet) are expected to continue on the atlantic
coastal waters. Winds and seas are expected to subside through the
evening.

Tuesday through Thursday... Winds and seas are likely to stay below
sca criteria.

Rip currents...

along the new jersey shore, there is a moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents through this evening. At the
delaware beaches, the risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents is low. Note that while there is little threat of
lightning during the day, the chance for thunderstorms increases
later this evening (after 8 pm).

Equipment
The kdix radar remains out of service as repairs continue
following a significant equipment failure. The latest estimate
on a return to service is sometime from Monday may 20th to
Wednesday may 22nd. Surrounding radars include kdox, kokx, klwx,
kccx, kbgm and tphl.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Monday
for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Davis
short term... Davis
long term... Gorse johnson
aviation... Davis johnson
marine... Davis johnson
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 23 mi27 min 55°F2 ft
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 27 mi37 min S 5.8 G 7.8 57°F 56°F1019.1 hPa54°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi39 min N 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 59°F1020.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi39 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 60°F1019.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 41 mi45 min 60°F 59°F1019 hPa
MHRN6 41 mi39 min SW 7 G 8.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi39 min S 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 1018.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi39 min 60°F 58°F1019 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 44 mi87 min Calm 58°F 1019 hPa57°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi67 min S 9.7 G 12 56°F 53°F2 ft1018.9 hPa (+0.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi81 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 59°F1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ11 mi61 minS 510.00 miOvercast59°F54°F83%1019.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi1.9 hrsESE 3 miOvercast58°F55°F93%1018.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi61 minN 010.00 miOvercast58°F55°F93%1020 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10N8N9N7NE3CalmE7SE8SE8S8SE10SE11SE8SE7
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W8W35W9W7SW6SW5SW8SW5SW4NW6NW5N9N10NW7NW10NW9
2 days agoCalmW4SW64N5W8W7
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Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
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Sun -- 02:42 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:47 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:03 PM EDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.70.6-0.2-0.40.21.32.53.54.34.43.92.91.80.80.1-0.10.41.52.844.95.34.94

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
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Sun -- 02:54 AM EDT     -3.32 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:18 AM EDT     2.56 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:09 PM EDT     -2.76 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     2.97 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-2.1-3-3.3-2.7-1.40.31.82.52.41.60.6-0.5-1.5-2.3-2.7-2.4-1.20.41.92.82.92.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.