Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornwells Heights, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:45PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 9:14 PM EST (02:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:52PMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 630 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of sprinkles early this evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow, rain and sleet in the morning, then rain with snow likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 630 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds into the waters from the west tonight and Wednesday, then begins to weaken Wednesday night. Low pressure will then track up the east coast on Thursday and pass through on Friday. High pressure then returns for Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornwells Heights, PA
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location: 40.07, -74.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 132321
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
621 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure is moving into atlantic canada this evening. High
pressure will gradually build in from the west through Wednesday,
before moving across to the north of our area on Wednesday night
and Thursday. An area of low pressure will develop near the
panhandle of florida late Wednesday, then track northeast along
the coast of the mid atlantic Thursday into Thursday night
before heading northeast into atlantic canada Friday. High
pressure will then return later Friday through the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Few changes for the 630 pm update. The center of the low
continues to lift further away from the region towards atlantic
canada.

Lingering back end energy could still bring a couple stray
showers through the rest of the day. As the low continues
pulling away, the circulation around the system has caused
northwesterly winds to develop, allowing drier and cooler air to
drain southeast across the region. Clouds will gradually start
breaking up through the night. A few flurries could make their
way into carbon and monroe but at this point expect it to
generally be dry tonight. Temperatures will drop to near or
below freezing across most of the cwa, but the winds and clouds
will prevent a big plunge in temps, and also should limit
city suburb differences.

Short term Wednesday through 6 am Wednesday
High pressure will be building in from the west on Wednesday
with drying at all levels. Winds will remain a bit gusty as
pressures continue rising but generally expecting gusts no
higher than 20-25 mph. The drying should allow a decent amount
of sunshine, but with strong cold advection, temps will struggle
to rise much, with most of the region having their coldest day
of the season thus far. Many areas will get stuck in the 30s
while warmer areas should reach the lower 40s. The extremes will
be the poconos, where it will likely stay near freezing, and far
southern de nj, where temps may read the middle 40s.

Long term Wednesday through Tuesday
Active weather in the long term focuses on the nor'easter which
is likely to affect the region Thursday into Friday. This system
will have plenty of gulf and atlantic moisture to work with and
strong dynamics thanks to a potent upper level disturbance,
combined with strong baroclinic forcing due to the unusually
cold air mass meeting the still warm atlantic waters. After the
system passes Friday, high pressure will likely result in much
quieter weather this weekend into early next week.

At the start of the period on Wednesday night, high pressure
shifts to the northeast of the region into southern canada while
low pressure develops to the southwest. After a mostly clear
start, high clouds should move in, then thicken and lower as the
night progresses. Lows will mostly be below freezing, though
warmer areas near the coast and in southern nj de may stay in
the mid 30s.

Warm advection precip overspreads the region ahead of the main
low pressure as we head through Thursday. Have not made
significant adjustments to the forecast given its still a couple
days out, but it is notable that the onset looks earlier, and
overall models seem to have trended a bit colder. Snow is
possible along and even southeast of the i-95 corridor at the
onset, with accumulations more likely northwest of i-95. As warm
advection brings a warm nose aloft, snow likely changes to
sleet freezing rain where the low level cold can hold firm, and
this could also last for some time especially NW of i-95. Winter
storm watches could be required for at least northwestern
portions of the cwa. Near i-95, the issue is always just how
quickly the warmer maritime air can nudge out the cold canadian
air, which is often a struggle. The details have yet to be
fleshed out, but the bottom line is that there could be
significant issues with wintry weather all the way down to i-95
through much of the day Thursday, perhaps even into Thursday
night.

As the surface low heads northeast of the region later
Thursday night into early Friday, a changeover back to snow from
ice rain is possible, though this is highly uncertain.

Regardless, as the low strengthens, some gusty winds are likely
especially Thursday night and Friday as the low pulls away. For
those locations which receive freezing rain (glaze ice), this
could be a significant issue.

We are currently experiencing technical difficulties in getting
our storm total snow and ice maps to the web. For the latest
forecast on these, please see our briefing package.

Things quiet down considerably Saturday through early next week
as high pressure dominates, and the weak systems passing through
are northern stream and moisture starved. That doesn't mean
nothing could happen, but at this point the odds favor a
significant break from our recent rash of storm systems. Temps
will be below normal, however.

Aviation 23z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MostlyVFR conditions. There is a small chance for
MVFR ceilings redeveloping, primarily across the lehigh valley
for a brief period around 06z, but the chance is too low to
include in the tafs at this time. Northwest wind 8 to 12 knots
gusting around 18 to 22 knots. High confidence overall, low
confidence on the potential for low clouds late tonight.

Wednesday...VFR expected. Northwest winds continued 10-15 knots
gusts 20-25 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Winds becoming
light and variable, shifting to northeast. High confidence.

Thursday through Friday... Deteriorating conditions through the
day Thursday. Precipitation will overspread the terminals from
south to north with MVFR or lower conditions expected. Precip
may start as snow as far southeast as ilg phl pne ttn, then
shift to fzra pl before going to rain potentially late, though
odds of plain ra at abe rdg are lower. Precip will continue
through Thursday night, gradually ending from south to north
Friday afternoon. Northeast winds around 10 to 20 knots
(strongest towards kacy) with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible
through Thursday night becoming northwest around 10 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots possible on Friday. Wind shear likely
Thursday night into Friday. Low confidence.

Friday night through Sunday... Improving conditions Friday night
with a return toVFR expected to occur late. West to northwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots Saturday, lighter Sunday.

Marine
Low pressure is moving up towards atlantic canada. Winds
northwest for rest of this afternoon and tonight. Wind gusts
will generally range 25 to 30 knots. As a result, a small craft
advisory remains in effect for our coastal waters and for
delaware bay.

Waves on our ocean waters are expected to build to 5 to 7 feet.

Waves on delaware bay should increase to 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions continue through
Wednesday. Northwest winds will diminish later in the day. Seas
are expected to drop below 5 feet Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... Winds diminish as high pressure shifts to the
northeast. Looks like we may drop below small craft advisory for
a time.

Thursday through Friday... Winds and seas will increase
as a coastal storm develops to our south and starts to move up
over our waters. Seas will build on Thursday becoming 6 to 12
feet. East to northeast winds will increase during the day
Thursday, increasing to 20 to 30 knots overnight with higher
gusts. Winds will turn to the northwest on Friday, remaining
around 15 to 25 knots. Gale warnings seem likely for later
Thursday through Friday.

Friday night... Gale force gusts are expected to end before
Friday night but small craft advisory conditions will continue.

The northwest winds will start to diminish overnight and lose
their gustiness by early Saturday morning. Seas are expected to
drop below 5 feet Friday night.

Saturday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected.

Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 to 4 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Wednesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until noon est Wednesday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Meola 99
near term... Johnson 99
short term... 99
long term... Meola mps 99
aviation... Iovino johnson meola 99
marine... Iovino meola 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 4 mi99 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 45°F 45°F1018.6 hPa
BDSP1 10 mi45 min 45°F 48°F1019.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 11 mi45 min NNW 7 G 12 45°F 45°F1019.5 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 14 mi45 min 46°F 47°F1019.2 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 31 mi45 min 46°F 50°F1019.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi45 min W 5.1 40°F 1019 hPa32°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 48 mi45 min NW 7 G 14 45°F 46°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA4 mi21 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F35°F66%1020.3 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ10 mi21 minW 710.00 miOvercast45°F35°F68%1019.8 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi22 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F34°F68%1018.7 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA18 mi40 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F33°F76%1020 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ18 mi19 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast44°F34°F69%1018.3 hPa
Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA20 mi21 minWNW 610.00 miFair42°F32°F68%1019.7 hPa
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA21 mi21 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast45°F33°F63%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from PNE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE4N7NE5NE4NE6NE7N6NE9N7N7NW7NW10N12NW11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmNE4Calm4SE5SE5CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5
2 days agoW8W6W7W7W6W7SW5W5W5W5W5W956NW9NW8NW8NW6NW5W4W6W4W3W3

Tide / Current Tables for Cornwells Heights, Pennsylvania
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Cornwells Heights
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Tue -- 01:02 AM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 AM EST     6.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:03 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:31 PM EST     7.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:49 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.41.23.14.65.56.25.94.93.72.61.710.61.23.25.26.36.96.96.14.93.72.5

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Tue -- 12:41 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:12 AM EST     1.04 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EST     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:33 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:23 PM EST     1.41 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:40 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:32 PM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:50 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.60.310.90.70.4-0.3-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.8-0.40.41.31.20.70.3-0.2-1.1-1.4-1.5-1.3-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.