Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Croydon, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:36PM Friday February 15, 2019 10:12 PM EST (03:12 UTC) Moonrise 2:12PMMoonset 4:18AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 836 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of sprinkles early this evening.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light snow in the evening, then light snow likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain in the evening, then chance of rain, sleet and freezing rain after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm in the evening.
ANZ300 836 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through this evening, followed by high pressure building in through Saturday night. Low pressure passes to the south Sunday night into Monday. High pressure then returns for Tuesday followed by an approaching low pressure system on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croydon, PA
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location: 40.08, -74.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 160226
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
926 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the waters late tonight, then
will stall well to the south on Saturday. A weak area of low
pressure quickly tracks along the front, however it is expected
to slide to our south during Saturday. The next weak low
pressure system then tracks across our area later Sunday into
Monday. A stronger storm system looks to arrive Wednesday into
Thursday followed by high pressure building down from the
northwest during Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Not much in the way of precip both ahead of and with the
passage of the cold front, which is just through pa and is now
entering western nj. Radar fairly dry, and metars not reporting
much in the way of showers.

Will go ahead and remove pops measurable QPF from the forecast
through midnight or so. Will instead carry scattered sprinkles
ahead of and with passage of cold front.

Will also go ahead and lower pops across DELMARVA late in the
overnight and into Saturday morning, as latest hi-res models
trending drier than before.

Low pressure developing along the front in the lower
mississippi river valley and the tennessee river valley tonight
should reach the carolinas by daybreak. The northern edge of the
precipitation shield associated with the low is expected to
reach southern delaware and the adjacent counties of eastern
maryland towards daybreak Saturday. Temperatures will be in the
upper 30s in those areas around that time. As a result, the
precipitation type will likely be rain. No precipitation is
anticipated for locations to the north.

Winds shift to the west, then northwest behind the front at 10
mph or so. Low temperatures tonight will range from the middle
and upper 20s in the poconos and in far northern new jersey, to
the upper 30s in southern delaware.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Light rain is forecast to continue into Saturday in southern
delaware and in the adjacent counties of eastern maryland, as
the surface low moves off the north carolina coast and out to
sea. Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to push into eastern
pennsylvania, far northeastern maryland, northern delaware and
new jersey from the northwest, bringing dry weather and
seasonable temperatures to those areas.

High temperatures should range mainly from the middle 30s to the
lower 40s on Saturday afternoon in our region with a northwest to
north wind 10 mph or less.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Summary... Colder for the second half of the weekend; a light wintry
precipitation event for some areas later Sunday into Monday; a messy
system probable Wednesday into Thursday with the potential for a
more pronounced cold air damming setup.

Synoptic overview... An active pattern continues with an expansive
trough in the west with another strong trough in the vicinity of
hudson bay eastward. These features will meander about into early
next week, although a closed low near hudson bay may reposition
itself some early next week. This places our region under nearly
zonal flow, and with southern stream energy ejecting eastward and
interacting with bouts of colder drier air filtering southward from
canadian high pressure, means potential wintry precipitation at
times. The most notable system looks to be in the Wednesday and
Thursday time frame when better synoptic forcing and moisture comes
into play. It is at this time when the guidance is suggesting cold
air damming with high pressure to our north-northeast, and one low
tracking into the eastern great lakes and another one redeveloping
near the mid-atlantic coast. It is this system especially when
confidence is rather low with the details.

For Saturday night... A zonal flow aloft continues across the east
which results in a weak surface low quickly shifting offshore of the
mid-atlantic coast to start Saturday evening. Any precipitation near
far southern delaware is anticipated to be gone to start Saturday
evening, with some clearing taking place especially across the
northern areas at least for a time. Meanwhile, cold canadian high
pressure builds to our north however it also wedges down into the
northern mid-atlantic region. Given the fast flow, the next system
should already start tossing high cloudiness our way overnight.

For Sunday and Monday... A series of short waves eject northeast
supporting a weak surface low. The flow looks to back some and
therefore this system tracks farther north and right across our
region. While some milder air will get pulled northward ahead of the
system, the thermal profiles support more snow frozen precipitation
from near the fall line and especially northward (i-78 corridor
northward). The precipitation amounts overall look light and with
light intensity rates anticipated, this could have some influence on
the precipitation types especially where the thermal fields are a
little more marginal. We used a model blend to obtain the thermal
fields, then generated the precipitation types from that utilizing
snow ratios. Most is snow or rain, however there could be a fairly
narrow corridor where some sleet or freezing rain occurs. This part
especially carries more uncertainty. As mentioned, any snow
accumulations look to be light (a coating to an inch or two) with
the most along and north of the i-78 corridor. The system looks to
depart the area early Monday, although some light snow may persist a
little longer across the far northern areas.

For Tuesday... A short break in the action is expected for Tuesday as
we get between systems. High pressure once again builds in from the
northwest and this should be the start of a more pronounced cold air
damming setup. The airmass, while on the colder side building in, it
looks rather dry due to high pressure becoming more established to
our north. This may delay the arrival of the precipitation later
Tuesday night, however some guidance is more robust with the warm
air advection and isentropic lift associated with a developing
overrunning setup. As a result, kept some increase in the pops from
south to north by later Tuesday night.

For Wednesday and Thursday... This time frame could be quite a mess.

The setup looks similar to the event that took place early this
week, and this involves cold canadian high pressure anchored to our
north with colder and drier low-level air seeping southward.

Meanwhile, energy arriving from the southwest drives a surface low
into the great lakes region by Thursday, however given the
expectation of cold air damming in place a secondary surface low
develops near the mid-atlantic coast. This setup typically locks in
the colder low-level air in longer, especially inland from the fall
line. Much of the guidance indicates a good moisture feed with this
system, with strengthening isentropic upglide and a ribbon of
frontogenetic forcing. This all translates to varying precipitation
types which are always challenging to forecast but especially at
this time range. We derived our precipitation types from the thermal
fields via a multi-model blend. There very well could be a burst of
snow for parts of the region before a transition to mixed
precipitation or freezing rain occurs. Despite the uncertainty in
the details, the setup suggests that at least portions of our region
could get enough wintry precipitation to result in hazardous travel.

As a result, a mention was added to the hazardous weather outlook,
especially for areas near and west of i-95.

For Friday... The guidance indicates that the system discussed above
should be out to sea as we start Friday. The flow is still zonal
aloft and this results in yet another surface high building into the
area from the west and northwest. The pressure gradient may be
tightened and therefore a gusty northwesterly breeze is
possible.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with CIGS above 5000 feet. West to northwest winds
around 10 kt. Southwest winds at kacy kmiv around 10 knots,
becoming northwest after midnight.

Saturday...VFR with CIGS expected to be above 15000 feet.

Northwest to north wind 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR. Light northerly winds becoming
locally light and variable, then becoming light east to southeast on
Sunday.

Sunday night... A period of MVFR ifr conditions probable with some
snow or a wintry mix. The details are less certain. Winds mainly
light and variable.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR conditions return Monday and continue
through much of Tuesday. MVFR conditions, especially ceilings,
should develop later Tuesday night. Northwesterly winds generally 10
knots or less.

Wednesday... MVFR ifr conditions probable with snow, rain and a
wintry mix. Northeast or east winds 10 knots or less. Low
confidence, especially regarding the precipitation types.

Marine
Will cancel the SCA for the de ocean waters, as seas have
subsided to 2-4 feet. SCA remains up for the nj ocean waters
until 4 am, but the trend has been for lower seas, and the sca
may be able to be cancelled earlier.

South to southwest winds 10 to 15 kt will turning northwest
behind the passage of a cold front after midnight. A northwest
to north wind 10 to 15 knots will continue into Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday... The conditions are
anticipated to be below small craft advisory criteria.

Wednesday... Increasing northeasterly winds and building seas,
therefore a small craft advisory looks probable.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Saturday for anz450>453.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Iovino mps
short term... Iovino
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse iovino mps
marine... Gorse iovino mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 1 mi96 min W 9.9 G 11 54°F 37°F1004.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 8 mi42 min NNW 6 G 8.9 55°F 37°F1005.7 hPa
BDSP1 13 mi42 min 57°F 39°F1005.7 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 17 mi42 min 58°F 37°F1005.2 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi48 min 57°F 39°F1005.5 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 44 mi102 min S 6 49°F 1004 hPa40°F

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA7 mi18 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast58°F37°F46%1006.2 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ9 mi18 minW 810.00 miOvercast57°F37°F49%1005.8 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ14 mi19 minWNW 10 G 1910.00 miOvercast57°F32°F39%1005 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ15 mi16 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds55°F40°F57%1004.7 hPa
Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA21 mi18 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds51°F30°F45%1006 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA21 mi37 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F35°F54%1006.4 hPa
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA24 mi18 minWNW 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast57°F34°F42%1006.3 hPa

Wind History from PNE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Burlington, New Jersey
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Burlington
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:18 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:12 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:26 AM EST     6.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:07 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:00 PM EST     6.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.3321.10.50.10.52.54.96.36.96.864.73.62.71.80.90.3134.75.66.1

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:57 AM EST     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:48 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     2.07 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:43 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:37 PM EST     1.71 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-2-1.8-1.4-0.90.31.62.11.61.20.3-0.9-1.7-2-2-1.9-1.7-10.41.61.71.51-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.