Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 12:29 AM   Moonset 9:15 AM

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FXUS61 KPBZ 300126 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 926 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain chances increase early Tuesday morning with an approaching trough. Above average temperatures will continue overnight and into Tuesday afternoon under southwest flow.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry, quiet weather is expected through midnight under high pressure.
- Precipitation chances increase early Tuesday with an approaching trough from the west.
- Near record high min temperature Tuesday morning is possible.
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6:30pm update: No major changes have been made to the forecast period. A new record high temperature was set at DuBois, PA (82F), this breaks the old record 80F set in 1970.

Previous Discussion:

Eastern CONUS ridge will remain positioned just off the east coast and residing over the region today as an upper level low lifts toward the western Great Lakes. Warm air aloft and subsidence will cap any convection, keeping dry conditions in place and allowing for plenty of sunshine. Near to record high temperatures are possible at all climate sites.

Ridge axis will shift eastward tonight and Tuesday as a shortwave trough will push the dome of high pressure toward the east coast. An increase in cirrus clouds tonight should keep overnight lows warm. Near to record high minimum temperature at most climate sites could result. This could also be a case where early convection arrives late tonight in some of the northwestern or western counties. This will of course impact the low temperatures across the region as well.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday.

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Upper level trough will weaken as it slowly crosses the region on Tuesday. This loss in amplitude will result in a slower crossing of a weak surface cold front. Shortwave trough movement will dictate rainfall timing with the trends continuing to slow the progression of the showers. This would result in rainfall chances continuing into Tuesday night. Any severe threat will depend on strength of that passing shortwave. It still appears that the severe threat will be limited given excessive cloud cover and residual warm air aloft. Thus the main concern for missing parameters will be the lack of instability but plenty of shear present. Thus is not out of the question to get a gusty shower for Tuesday afternoon. However, the DCAPE values will be a bit lacking with values around 500 J/Kg making the downburst potential really lacking.

Height rises are likely to return on Wednesday, promoting dry conditions and well above normal temperatures. It is certainly not out of the question to still be dealing with a few showers exiting the forecast area on Wednesday morning but overall, a warm and dry forecast is on tap.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern continues through the long term with above-average temperatures favored.

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High pressure will provide well above normal temperatures and dry conditions through Thursday night. Ensembles favor upper level trough movement through the Great Lakes region Friday into the weekend that would push the ridge axis southeast and introduce widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. Timing of said pattern shift (which will play role in precipitation timing and temperature trends Friday into Saturday).

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR will prevail through most of the overnight. Increasing mid/high clouds are expected overnight in advance of a trough with MVFR ceilings expected to spread across the area by 12z.
Showers will follow Tuesday morning and afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon with the crossing cold front. For now, have kept PROB30 -TSRA groups for mainly PIT eastward where probability is highest.

Light southerly winds overnight will veer more westerly through Tuesday.

Outlook
VFR will return early Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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