Monday, May20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Worthington, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:46PM Monday May 20, 2019 2:48 AM EDT (06:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:45PMMoonset 6:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:201905200215;;129677 Fzus51 Kcle 191950 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 350 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>144-200215- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 350 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers with isolated Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms late this evening. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 56 degrees, off cleveland 53 degrees and off erie 51 degrees.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Worthington, OH
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location: 40.1, -83.02     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 200533
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
133 am edt Mon may 20 2019

A cold front will push east across the area tonight. Cooler and
drier air can be expected for Monday and Tuesday as high
pressure moves east across the great lakes and ohio valley. A
warm front will move into the region for Wednesday and Thursday,
bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms along
with warmer, more humid conditions.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Convective line continues to weaken as forcing dissipates.

Expect the showers to break apart as they move east. Cloud
cover will be variable overnight as the region will be affected
by the convective debris cloud then clearing before scattered
clouds work in by morning.

Temperatures will drop off with frontal passage as the lows
will range from the mid 50s west to the mid 60s in the east.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
An upper level trough will be moving east across the eastern
great lakes on Monday. CAA and low level moisture will keep
skies partly to mostly cloudy during the morning hours. By
afternoon, lower clouds should lift up into a cumulus deck with
more holes developing as the afternoon hours progress. It will
be locally gusty as winds shift from the west to the northwest.

It will be drier and cooler. Highs will range from the lower 60s
northwest to the upper 70s far southeast.

For Monday night, high pressure at the surface and aloft will be
building east into the great lakes and ohio valley. Cumulus
clouds should disperse and or dissipate during the evening,
being replaced by some mid and high level clouds spilling in
from the west. It will be a little chilly with lows ranging from
the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south of the ohio river.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
An anomalously deep and occluding low pressure system across
the central plains will induce the slight nosing of the ridge
axis into the ohio valley as surface high pressure briefly
builds into the great lakes region on Tuesday. This will
maintain east-northeasterly surface flow in a post-frontal
environment across the iln fa, with potentially only a few
mid high clouds streaming in from the west- southwest through
the day. High temperatures will range from the mid upper 60s in
west-central central ohio to the low 70s near and south of the
ohio river.

By Tuesday night into early Wednesday, the remnants of what
once was a cohesive and well-formed convective line across the
mid-missouri valley will nudge eastward closer to the local area
but will most likely do so in a weakening state as the source
impulse disturbance essentially becomes sheared-out as it
progresses into an increasingly hostile environment
characterized by a midlevel ridge axis centered from eastern tn
northward into eastern mi. As such, precipitation chances will
decrease west to east Wednesday morning with the nudging of the
pseudo-warm front east across the area, with just chance pops
during the day as the remnants of the disturbance push east
through the region.

By midweek, the expansion of the ridge across the gulf states
and southeast u.S. Will yield an increasingly large, warm, and
humid airmass across both the tennessee and ohio valleys. Some
of this warmth will build back north into the ohio valley as
early as Wednesday (as the warm front progresses east), which
will help provide enough low level instby with the
aforementioned disturbance to sprout some diurnally-driven
convection throughout the area. The forcing for ascent is not
overly strong, but there are indications of some seasonably
modest instby during the afternoon hours, so certainly
thunderstorms will be maintained in the forecast during this
time period.

By Thursday, the upper level ridge across the southeast will
strengthen considerably -- and this has been, and continues to
be, supported both in deterministic and ensemble datasets among
multiple synoptic-based modeling systems. The positioning of the
high itself will have implications on the sensible weather
locally -- as it at the very least appears like the center of
the ridge will stay south of the ohio valley. This setup does
lend itself to the potential for embedded disturbances riding
along the northern fringes of the ridge, which would act to keep
a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
(especially across the northern reaches of the ohio valley)
opposed to going with a hotter drier solution. Am leaning right
now toward daily chances of showers storms being maintained with
the ohio valley positioned more squarely on the fringes of the
ridge. Although these kinds of patterns can be deceivingly
active for us here locally, did not want to jump too much on
precipitation chances given inherent uncertainties in timing and
placement. The pattern for the end of the week into the first
part of the upcoming weekend may very well feature multiple
rounds of storms for the ohio valley the specifics of which may
not come into better focus for at least several days.

Nevertheless, the prospect of having midlevel disturbances pivot
about the ridge axis amidst an inherently unstable airmass will
be watched in the coming days for the potential for episodic
thunderstorms for an extended period of time late in the week.

With all of this being said, confidence remains high in a very
warm and humid airmass building into the region from Wednesday
through the end of the long term period -- with highs in the
80s near 90 and lows in the 60s.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Shower activity is pushing east of the TAF sites and therefore
have dry conditions in during the TAF period. Cloud cover will
briefly decrease, however winds should stay up enough overnight
to mitigate fog formation. Only have a brief MVFR vsby in at the
river valley location kluk where winds might be able to drop off
a little more. Some MVFR CIGS will be possible around daybreak
near kday, otherwise expectVFR cigs.

With CAA an extensive CU field will develop during the day on
Monday with some wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots possible at
times. Winds and cloud cover will decrease some by the end of
the TAF period.

Outlook... Thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hickman sites
near term... Sites
short term... Hickman
long term... Kc
aviation... Novak

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 92 mi64 min SW 2.9 64°F 1008 hPa61°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 93 mi49 min SW 8 G 12 64°F 1006.8 hPa (+0.4)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH3 mi56 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast63°F60°F90%1010.2 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH10 mi58 minS 710.00 miOvercast62°F59°F90%1010.4 hPa
Columbus, Bolton Field Airport, OH15 mi54 minSW 610.00 miOvercast62°F60°F94%1011.5 hPa
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH19 mi74 minS 710.00 miOvercast61°F60°F98%1011.2 hPa
Marysville Union County Airport, OH20 mi74 minSW 710.00 miOvercast61°F58°F91%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS6S7S8S7S8S10S14
1 day agoNE3E4E4E4E4E5S53SW8W8W8
2 days agoW6SW11W7SW10SW6SW5SW9SW6SW12SW13SW14W11W10W11W9W13W11W9NE45W3NW3CalmN3

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.