Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM   Moonset 1:06 PM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405020815;;462400 Fzus51 Kcle 020127 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 927 pm edt Wed may 1 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-020815- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 927 pm edt Wed may 1 2024
Overnight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 58 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KILN 021413 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1013 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm temperatures are expected again today as surface high pressure shifts off to our southeast. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop during the day on Friday as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
Ongoing fcst remains on track for today, with an unseasonably warm afternoon on tap as highs reach into the mid to upper 80s.
Did bump up temps a degree or two across the board given plentiful sunshine, especially through the first half of the day.

A residual boundary remains draped across the heart of the ILN FA this morning, with sfc DPs ranging from the lower 60s near/S of the OH Rvr to the upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Amidst light southerly sfc flow, would expect that the richer LL moisture should slowly drift back to the N through the afternoon. But as it does so, the shallow moisture should also mix out somewhat (especially for the southern half of the ILN FA), leading to lower sfc DPs (lower 50s) S of I-70 by late day, with mid/upper 50s near/N of I-70 toward late afternoon. So with this in mind, the potential for a few spotty late afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA should be confined to areas near/W of I-75 and near/N of I-70, likely "maxing out" in EC IN and WC OH this evening. Even with this being said, the overall potential for spotty activity is somewhat low, with the best coverage centered in the 22z-02z time frame near a corridor from Fayette/Union Cos IN to Shelby/Auglaize Cos OH. Gusty winds in a favorable DCAPE environment will be the primary threat with any stronger cores, but there are questions regarding the intensity of any storm that is able to develop.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Any lingering thunderstorm activity will taper off this evening with the loss of daytime heating with skies becoming mostly clear.

A mid level short wave will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley late tonight and into the day on Friday in developing southwest flow aloft. This will be accompanied by a weak surface wave that will lift northeast across our region through the day on Friday. This will result in an increase in clouds later tonight with showers and a chance of thunderstorms overspreading the region during the day on Friday. Instability and shear will remain fairly marginal and this will help limit any severe potential.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs on Friday ranging from the mid 70s west to the lower 80s east.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Looking like quite an active period in store for the extended forecast, persisting into next week with ridging set up in the southern stream and large scale troughing in the north. Temperatures throughout the extended remain above average... around 5-10+ degrees above climatological normals.

The northern jet stream trough located near the Hudson Bay area will be wrapping up and pulling its occluded/ cold front through the region during the overnight hours. Showers continue to work through the FA, moving from west to east. Forecast soundings still indicate some weak, elevated instability lingering, so have kept thunder in the forecast overnight. Overnight lows drop to the low 60s.

Saturday, a shortwave moving through the southern stream looks to ride up the larger flow pattern and move through the Ohio Valley.
Forcing with this one is weak but should be enough to promote showers/storms throughout the day on Saturday. Right now, highest probability of more widespread precip will be east of I-75, given placement and trajectory of shortwave (although, all areas will have a chance for thunderstorms given the humid airmass in place).
Overall, do not have high confidence in precip forecast. High temperatures in the mid/upper 70s.

More of the same on Sunday and Monday with another couple of shortwaves moving through the southern flow, bringing renewed chances for showers and storms. Again, forcing isn't overly impressive and therefore, signal for precip timing/location is weak.
Have gone with the blend and kept chance to low end likely PoPs in.

The next somewhat stronger signal for storms arrives mid-week as the upper level trough in the northern stream occludes with its surface low, pulling the cold front through the Ohio Valley. Interestingly, both CIPS Analog Guidance and Colorado State Machine Learning both light up during this time. However, right now we're still too early to really have much confidence. Will be something to watch.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high pressure will move off to our southeast today with light southerly flow developing across the area. As we destabilize this afternoon, some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but chances appear low enough to leave out of the TAFs attm. Any activity will dissipate this evening. Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching frontal boundary will lead to thickening VFR clouds late tonight into Friday morning with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the 30 hour TAF period at KCVG.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday through Monday. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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