Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manasquan, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:48PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:45 PM EDT (18:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:40AMMoonset 6:21PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1222 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
This afternoon..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1222 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will move through the region this morning. High pressure will build in from the midwest tonight. This high will move overhead Sunday and then progress offshore Monday into Tuesday. An area of low pressure is expected to pass well to our north for midweek but not before its cold front moves through the region on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manasquan , NJ
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location: 40.11, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191603
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1203 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
A cold front has moved offshore this morning. High pressure
will build in from the midwest tonight. This high will move
overhead Sunday and then progress offshore Monday into Tuesday.

An area of low pressure is expected to pass well to our north
for midweek but not before its cold front moves through the
region on Wednesday. Canadian high pressure building into the
mid atlantic on Thursday will likely influence our weather
through early next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The cold front has moved offshore this morning, and a west-
northwest flow has developed. Winds will become more west-
southwest later today as a surface trough approaches from the
west. Some daytime cumulus has begun to develop across the area
and will continue to build through the day, although there
should still be plenty of sunshine through the day. As the surface
trough moves across the area today, a short wave vorticity
impulse approaches later in the afternoon as well. A few
showers thunderstorms are expected to approach the area later in
the afternoon, but probably won't move across the area until
this evening.

Dewpoints today will be lower for most places than Friday, but
still in the mid to upper 60s with some 70s mixed in.

Temperatures will be well above normal again today, but with the
expected dewpoints, heat index values will remain in the 90s so
not expecting to reach heat advisory levels.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
The axis of the upper trough will cross the region tonight with a
shortwave rotating through the area with it. The models continue to
show some moisture crossing the region with the shortwave upper
trough. It appears that the moisture peters out before reaching the
majority of our area and only a few showers, possibly an isolated
thunderstorm, may reach the lehigh valley, poconos and northwest
new jersey.

Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s across the region,
closer to 70 in philadelphia and along the coast.

Long term Sunday through Friday
High pressure centered over the ohio valley Sunday morning will move
overhead by Sunday night. The high will gradually shift off the
coast on Monday, but not before it provides us with consecutive days
of dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures (highs in the mid to
upper 80s both days). An uptick in humidity will occur on Monday in
response to the light southerly return flow that develops on the
western periphery of the surface high.

Due to popular demand, spent a little extra time than usual
analyzing moisture fields from various models before constructing
cloud cover forecast for Monday afternoon. We are advertising a
mostly sunny sky during the 1-4 pm timeframe when the solar
eclipse will be viewable in our area. However, there are a couple
of things to watch out for that could provide a source of clouds:
1) there will likely be high-level cirrus streaming in from the
west with a subtle upper-level jet streak passing by but it should
generally be scattered and or thin enough to not impede viewing of
the eclipse. 2) daytime heating will result in the development of
cumulus (cu). Based on the newest 00z guidance, expect these
lower-based clouds to be scattered across a majority of the area,
allowing most sky gazers to have a unobstructed view of the
eclipse. However, with increasing moisture in boundary layer, it
is still too soon to rule out a broken CU deck that could impact
viewing, especially south and west of philadelphia where mixing
ratios and rh values are higher at the top of the boundary layer
between at 18z and 21z. It will also be interesting to see how the
temporary lull in insolation during the solar eclipse will affect
cloud cover- one would expect the diurnally-driven CU to decrease
around and just after totality in a similar manner to what happens
near sunset on a normal day.

Our next chance for precip looks to be Monday night when a weak
shortwave trough embedded within a corridor of stronger westerlies
residing to the north of the southern CONUS upper ridge is
predicted to pass through the region. This disturbance could
provide enough lift to support elevated convection into the night,
especially across DELMARVA and southern nj where the airmass will
be more moist and less stable compared to more northern locations.

Low pressure is expected to deepen midweek as it tracks
northeastward across the great lakes and into the st. Lawrence
valley. Meanwhile, shortwave energy digging around the backside
of the synoptic trough will lead to amplification of this
upstream trough. In this pattern, chances for showers and storms
will increase going into Tuesday and Wednesday. The focus for
convective development Tuesday afternoon will be along a pre-
frontal trough that is forecast to sharpen to the lee of the
mountains. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the period
(lower 90s along and south of the urban i-95 corridor) with the
warm sector becoming established over the area in advance of the
cold front. The best opportunity for rain looks to be Tuesday
night and Wednesday in concert with the arrival of the cold
front. Note, models are in remarkably good agreement
(considering its still five days out) with the position and
timing of the surface low and attendant cold front.

Expansive high pressure builds in from the great lakes late in the
week and into the start of next weekend. The Thursday-Saturday
period is currently forecast to be dry with slightly below normal
temperatures,. However, we will have to monitor the potential for
the front that moves through midweek to stall nearby, which
frequently occurs in summer.

Aviation 16z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of today and tonight...VFR conditions are expected. West
to northwest winds around 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts around
15 knots this afternoon. Winds will become light and variable
overnight tonight. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible
late this afternoon and evening near krdg kabe.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday night...VFR. NW 5-10 kt on Sunday, becoming
calm after sunset, then s-sw 5-10 kt on Monday.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR. Low chance for showers and storms with the
potential for convective development being slightly more favorable
over western-most terminals. S-sw winds 5-10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt
during the afternoon.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Increasing chances for showers and
storms with the approach of a cold front. This activity will bring a
risk for temporary localized restrictions belowVFR. Expect a wind
shift from s-sw to NW to occur on Wednesday with fropa.

Wednesday night... Improving conditions from NW to SE behind the
front.

Marine
Tranquil conditions will continue across the area waters through
tonight. Northwest winds becoming southwest later today around
10 to 15 knots with a few gusts around 20 knots through tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday... Winds and seas will be well below sca
criteria.

Tuesday night... SCA possible with sly flow strengthening ahead of
cold front. Seas may also build to near 5 ft in our coastal waters.

Wednesday... Winds veer from s-sw to W with the arrival of a cold
front. Wind speeds should be below 20 kt but it may take time for
seas in the coastal waters to drop below 5 ft during the morning.

Wednesday night... Nw winds could briefly approach 25 kt in post-
frontal pressure surge.

Rip currents...

the rip current risk for today is low at the new jersey shore and
delaware beaches.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Robertson meola
short term... Meola
long term... Klein
aviation... Klein robertson meola
marine... Klein meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi45 min S 6 G 7 81°F 76°F1010.6 hPa (-0.3)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 25 mi55 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 78°F 77°F3 ft1010.7 hPa (-0.5)71°F
44091 27 mi75 min 78°F4 ft
MHRN6 37 mi45 min W 8 G 11
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi45 min 85°F 78°F1011 hPa (-0.4)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi45 min NW 7 G 8.9 84°F 77°F1012.1 hPa (-0.3)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 38 mi45 min W 7 G 11 1011.5 hPa (-0.4)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi45 min 83°F 76°F1010.7 hPa (-0.3)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi69 min 83°F 77°F1011.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 46 mi75 min SW 2.9 85°F 1012 hPa69°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi55 min W 7.8 G 7.8 76°F 76°F3 ft1011.3 hPa (-0.4)74°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi49 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F66°F51%1012.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ16 mi1.8 hrsW 6 miA Few Clouds87°F66°F51%1011.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi49 minW 8 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F68°F52%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5SE8SE7S9SW4SW12
G21
S6W6SW5W5W7SW9SW5SW7W9W7NW5W4NW5N7CalmW8SW7W9
1 day agoE9SE8E9SE8SE7SE4SE4SE5SE4S4--S4S3S4S5S5S7S6
G14
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2 days agoW7N7
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NW7S64S3S4S4SW4SW5W3W3W4CalmNE4NE3N3NE5NE8NE7NE9E9E7E9

Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
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Sat -- 12:04 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:07 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:28 PM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.21.12.13.13.94.343.22.21.10.3-0.10.21.12.33.54.55.15.14.43.32.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:16 AM EDT     -3.27 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:34 AM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:29 PM EDT     -2.88 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:50 PM EDT     3.16 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.2-3-1.8-0.31.32.32.41.80.8-0.2-1.2-2.1-2.8-2.7-1.7-0.11.52.83.12.61.60.4-0.7-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.