Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 4:50 PM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405051415;;653330 Fzus51 Kcle 050808 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 408 am edt Sun may 5 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-051415- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 408 am edt Sun may 5 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 051913 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 313 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region through at least midweek, leading to occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Drier air will return by the end of the week, although rain chances may persist at times into next weekend as below normal temperatures settle in for next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As expected, ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA activity is sprouting about the uncapped environment, with SBCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg near/E of I-71. The forcing and lift remain very weak, so expect that coverage should remain generally scattered in nature, eventually focusing mainly in central/south-central OH and NE KY by about 20z or so. The best coverage will likely be from Franklin/Licking/Madison Cos OH to Lewis Co KY between about 20z-23z before activity becomes more ISO toward sunset and beyond as it shifts out of the local area.

There may be some very brief clustering/training of cells from time-to-time, but the overall potential for either severe weather or flooding appears to be rather low. Still cannot rule out some very isolated gusty winds, small hail, or brief heavy rain with any of the strongest activity (especially in central OH between about 20z-23z), but this potential should remain isolated/spotty in nature. Will maintain HWO for now even if the threat appears to be somewhat lower than originally anticipated (given a few lingering uncertainties in terms of coverage).

Elsewhere, it will continue to feel like an early-summer day with a healthy Cu field and temps in the mid 70s (WC OH) around 80 degrees (elsewhere) and dewpoints generally in the upper 50s (WC OH) to lower 60s (elsewhere). Drier air is going to attempt to filter in from the NW this evening and from the N overnight, but the push for a more significant airmass change is just not there. In fact, the boundary should lay out somewhere in the vicinity of the OH Rvr overnight (with sfc DPs in the mid 50s near I-70 to the lower 60s in N KY). The E-W oriented boundary will gradually pivot back N toward/beyond daybreak Monday as another S/W moves in from the SW during the morning.

More widespread SHRA/TSRA activity will move back in from the SW late tonight as a weakening S/W moves NE through the wrn TN/OH Vlys. This should lead to a wet AM commute for parts of the Tri- State, with drier conditions further N toward the Dayton/Columbus metro areas around daybreak. Before that occurs, some patchy fog will be possible across the area where clearing is able to occur through the first part of the night, particularly in areas that received quite a bit of rain over the past several days.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A pivoting axis of SHRA/TSRA will overspread the srn 2/3 of the ILN FA during the daytime Monday, with the greatest coverage focusing S of I-70 during the heart of the daytime. The aforementioned front will also pivot back N, allowing for richer LL moisture to expand back N through the daytime, with PWATs once again exceeding 1.5 inches (175% of seasonal norms).
This, combined with slowing/erratic cell motions (owing to a developing W-E oriented LL convergence zone (with stretching along it)), may once again create isolated heavy rain/flooding concerns, especially in a tier or two of counties either side of the OH Rvr. This setup, on top of already-saturated ground for many spots, lends itself to at least some concern for more than a spotty/ISO hydro concern during the afternoon/early evening.
So have added mention in the HWO for the areas of greatest potential for high water/flooding concerns Monday afternoon/evening, even recognizing the threat should still be fairly isolated.

With quite a bit of cloud cover and SHRA/TSRA activity about the region during the day, forecast highs were trimmed several degrees, with highs generally in the lower/mid 70s and sfc DPs nudging back into the mid 60s for most spots. SHRA/TSRA activity should become more ISO in coverage toward the evening/beyond, but may not shut off completely through Monday night as the weakly-convergent axis continues to crawl to the N. An unseasonably warm night is on tap for Monday as lows only dip into the lower/mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A persistent southwest flow aloft will allow deep moisture advection through much of the period. Coupled with a parade of disturbances, the moisture advection will lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, producing the chance for hazardous weather during parts of the long term.

For Tuesday, thunderstorms will be triggered by a couple of disturbances settling into the Ohio Valley. Ample instability will allow the deep convection, which will be organized by a potent mid level wind flow. Downbursts will be favored by dry air in the mid levels, suggesting a threat for severe thunderstorms. After a relative lull Tuesday night to early Wednesday, more strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night when a more potent disturbance triggers a surface low tracking to the Great Lakes.

For Thursday through Sunday, while stronger disturbances may allow the bulk of severe weather to shift south and east, mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible each day in persistent moisture and instability.

Warm weather continues Tuesday through Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Cooler air working in on a northwesterly breeze will result in highs mainly in the 60s for Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A mix of MVFR/VFR diurnally-enhanced Cu has expanded with daytime heating, but expect that CIGs should gradually transition to more VFR within the first hour or so of the TAF period (if they haven't already done so).

For early in the TAF period, still expecting a few SHRA/TSRA to develop near KCMH/KLCK through about 22z or so before the activity pushes further to the E. Confidence is somewhat low regarding coverage, but there seems to be enough of a signal for a few SHRA/TSRA around central OH to add a TEMPO. Elsewhere, a stray SHRA/TSRA cannot be completely ruled out at KILN, but would expect that activity should focus a bit further E of the site.

Conditions will trend dry area-wide by/past 00z before more widespread SHRA/TSRA moves in from the SW past 09z, impacting KCVG/KLUK by daybreak. But until we get to that, some BR/FG will be possible once again tonight, especially as mainly skies (except for some cirrus) should evolve from 00z through about 09z. With ample rainfall in recent days and mostly clear skies and relatively light/variable/calm winds, the potential for some patchy fog/VSBY reductions exists, especially for KILN/KCVG/KLUK.

MVFR CIGs and VSBYs coincident with pcpn are expected to spread in from the SW past daybreak. A few uncertainties in just how far N the activity spreads, with a sharp cutoff likely near KCMH/KLCK by the end of the period. Fairly widespread pcpn is expected further S toward KILN/KCVG/KLUK between 12z-18z.

Light WNW winds will become more northerly (at ~3-5kts) around 00z before going easterly by daybreak and eventually out of the ESE by Monday afternoon. Winds should remain 10kts or less through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times each day through Thursday. MVFR conditions are possible Tuesday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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