Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alexandria, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:14PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:14 PM EST (18:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:40PMMoonset 8:10AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:201902202115;;233032 Fzus51 Kcle 201447 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 947 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>145-202115- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 947 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Snow with freezing rain likely late this morning, then rain, snow and freezing rain likely early this afternoon. Rain late. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the evening.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees, off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
LEZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria, OH
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location: 40.11, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 201641
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
1141 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
As low pressure and cold front will move east across the great
lakes and the ohio valley today into tonight. High pressure
will move into the ohio valley on Thursday and Friday, bringing
dry conditions. The next chance for rain will occur over the
weekend, as another area of low pressure moves into the great
lakes.

Near term until 11 pm this evening
Rain has exited southeast of the CWA this morning. Some drizzle
is found behind it and will continue until showers develop this
afternoon. A lull is expected until some heating and a mid
level shortwave combine this afternoon to produce showers and
possibly a thunderstorm or two. These storms that do develop may
train over a particular area and have the potential to produce
an isolated additional inch of rain, keeping the flooding threat
through nightfall.

Do not believe that storms will linger past the late day over
iln CWA and the flooding threat ends with the coming night as
any lingering rain drizzle on the back side of the system will
be light without any threatening impacts.

Best chance of thunder this afternoon appears to occur where the
flood watch is out, though the forecast update was a little
more generous to the west and north of this area.

Short term 11 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Behind the front this evening, rain should gradually come to an
end, though some patchy drizzle or light rain could continue
for a few hours after the front has passed. Surface high
pressure is expected to build through the middle mississippi
valley region and into the ohio valley by Thursday, resulting in
a much quieter weather day.

Temperatures were

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
High pressure will remain across the region Thursday night.

Under filtered mid and high clouds, lows will drop into the mid
20s north to the lower 30s south.

For the period Friday into Friday night, as the surface high
moves east, a mid level ridge axis extending from a strong
subtropical mid level ridge off the florida coast will begin to
reestablish itself. In additional, embedded waves of energy will
begin to move northeast around the periphery of this high into
the ohio valley. This will begin a period of increasing clouds
along with an increasing threat for rain from south to north as
moisture becomes transported northward. Highs on Friday will
range from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south. Lows
Friday night will range from the lower 30s north to the lower
40s south.

The weather pattern becomes active once again as we head into
the upcoming weekend. A dynamic mid level trough is forecast to
pull out of the southwest u.S., into the central plains, then
northeast into the great lakes. As this occurs, a significant
amount of moisture will be transported northward back into the
ohio valley once again. In fact, some models suggest pwats
approaching 1.50 inches which is record pwat territory for the
month of february (since upper air flights have been recorded at
dayton and wilmington). On Saturday, rain will overspread the
entire region as low level moisture transport accompanies a
northward moving warm front. By Saturday night into Sunday, low
pressure will deepen as it heads to the great lakes from the
central plains. As this occurs, an attendant cold front will
sweep east through our region. Models are indicating some
instability with the front, along with a strong 60-70 knot low
level jet. Sherb3 parameter is indicating values around 1.0 as
well. Thus, have continued with categorical pops with showers
and a slight chance of thunderstorms. We will have to monitor
this pattern in the coming days as this could end up being a
high shear low CAPE issue with potential damaging winds and
isolated "spin up" tornadoes. Too early to mention in the hwo at
this moment, be we will continue to monitor for updates. In
addition, locally heavy rain may bring at least another 1 to 2
inches to the region, which will already still be trying to
recover from Wednesday's system. As the front pushes through,
pcpn will diminish in coverage. Deep low pressure over michigan
and strong winds aloft will result in windy conditions on
Sunday. This looks like at least a wind advisory at this point
as the 00z eps indicating 60-70 percent chances for wind gusts
over 40 knots. It could end up being a high wind warning in
spots if momentum transfer values come to fruition (lower 50
knots for west central ohio). Have increased sustained winds and
wind gusts in the hwo to at least get the ball rolling in the
right direction. Will continue to mention the potential for
strong winds in the hwo. Highs on Saturday will occur late in
the day or in the evening, 50s to lower 60s. CAA by Sunday will
cause temperatures to slowly fall, reaching the mid 30s
northwest and the mid 40s southeast by Sunday evening.

Quieter weather is forecast to return by Monday as high
pressure builds into the great lakes and ohio valley. It will be
cooler with highs in the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.

The next weather system to affect the region is poised for
Tuesday with at least a chance of rain. Highs will range from
the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Lifr CIGS in some drizzle and MVFR mist will continue until
showers and possibly a thunderstorm develop this afternoon with
an upper level shortwave passing by. Expect low CIGS to persist
overnight with MVFR vsbys. This afternoon will see the passage
of a low level jet as the upper S W crosses, and llws of 40-45kt
is expected around 2kft.

Bulk of convective showers will exit the forecast area by late
afternoon, and lingering light rain and drizzle will remain
possible through about midnight with improving conditions
overnight and moreso during the day Thursday.

Outlook... Continuing MVFR ifr conditions are expected through
early Thursday morning. MVFR conditions are possible again on
Saturday and Sunday, with gusty winds expected on Sunday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... Flood watch through Thursday morning for ohz073-074-079>082-
088.

Ky... Flood watch through Thursday morning for kyz094>100.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Franks
short term... Hatzos
long term... Hickman
aviation... Franks


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 88 mi89 min E 7 35°F 1017 hPa32°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 89 mi74 min ESE 14 G 19 33°F 1014.6 hPa (-4.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 99 mi44 min E 12 G 15 31°F 32°F1016.4 hPa31°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark Heath Airport, OH12 mi20 minSSE 73.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F37°F89%1015.5 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH14 mi23 minSE 10 G 192.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist38°F36°F93%1015.2 hPa
Knox County Airfield, OH17 mi18 minSSE 122.00 miFog/Mist37°F37°F100%1015.2 hPa
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH22 mi21 minSE 111.50 miFog/Mist38°F37°F97%1014.8 hPa
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH24 mi19 minSE 82.50 miFog/Mist37°F37°F99%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from VTA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E5E3E7E6E6NE3E6NE6NE4E6E7E5E4NE6NE5NE5NE11E11NE6E6SE6S8S7
1 day agoNW9NW9NW11NW6NW10N7NW6NW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE43
2 days agoSE5E7E7E4NE3CalmNW3SW3W9W8W12W9W11W9W9W11
G16
W8W10W9W6W10W9W9NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.