Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 4:51 AM   Moonset 7:25 PM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405071415;;769747 Fzus51 Kcle 070741 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 341 am edt Tue may 7 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-071415- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 341 am edt Tue may 7 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 54 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 071806 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 206 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Several rounds of showers and storms are expected through Thursday amidst a continued warm and humid pattern. Afterwards, cooler and slightly drier conditions are expected, though shower chances can not be ruled out through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Still looking to see how the airmass will be modified behind this initial line of showers and thunderstorms. In the northern half of CWA, scattered showers have sprung up ahead of the line and seem to be removing any deeper convection behind it that would be associated with the original line that lags behind them. To the south, moderate to strong thunderstorms can be found along the line, with a short period of stratiform rain behind it.

Back edge of cloud cover with a following significant area of clearing is already at the western border of the CWA This feature continues the earlier train of thought regarding severe potential this afternoon.

Previous discussion(s) remain valid:

Parameters of significant shear and instability remain in place this afternoon for severe weather. This is an all-mode severe weather threat with damaging winds, large hail, isolated flooding, and tornados. Tornado parameters per SPC and some AI forecasts have the entire CWA with a potential of significant tornados >EF2. The AI enhances a more narrow corridor running sw-ne through Cincy metro area, curving northward into Dayton metro area.

As a shortwave is ejected northeast from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley, an increase in mid-level flow and backing low-level winds will be seen in the vertical profile by later in the afternoon. A surge in warm, humid air should occur just ahead of the shortwave's arrival. Forecast soundings continue to indicate surface CAPEs approaching 2,500 J/kg and effective shear around 60 knots. In addition, curved hodographs lead to effective SRH exceeding 200 m^2/s^2.

Without a discrete forcing mechanism this afternoon and evening, scattered, discrete supercells are likely to develop. High temperatures will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
A cold front associated with the shortwave will shift east across the local forecast area late this evening through midnight. While hodographs are a bit less curved for this period, an increase in forcing leads to higher coverage of thunderstorms, and likely a more organized linear mode. Can't rule out some embedded supercells as well based on persistent bulk shear ahead of the front.

The shortwave will exit to the east late tonight, leading to a quieter conditions extending into Wednesday. Bright May sunshine allows high temperatures to exceed 80 degrees across the middle Ohio Valley. We may see some increase in cloud cover late in the period as another shortwave begins to eject northeast into the middle Mississippi Valley.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A warm frontal boundary will be draped along the Ohio River early Wednesday evening, extending east from a surface low over the mid Mississippi Valley. As the low tracks east Wednesday night, the boundary will begin to lift slowly north across southern portions of our fa. There remains some uncertainty with just how far the front will make it, along with the better instability, but the 00Z models appear to have trended everything a bit farther to the south. Still, expect to see showers and thunderstorms overspread the region Wednesday evening and continue into the night as the surface low moves through our area.

With very favorable shear and an instability gradient along the boundary, some severe storms will be possible, with the best chances mainly along and south of the Ohio River, closer to the better instability. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main severe threat, although an isolated tornado will also be possible. Also, with the potential for training storms along the boundary and PWs in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range, there will be a heavy rain/flood threat, especially across southern portions of our area Wednesday night. Pcpn will taper off later Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the low moves off to the east.

An upper level trough will settle in across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley heading into the weekend and into early next week.
A series of embedded mid level short waves rotating through the trough will bring additional chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each the day, especially Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be seasonably cool through the weekend with highs mostly in the 60s. More seasonable temperatures will return on Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Thunderstorms have exited CVG/LUK/DAY and some stratiform rain will remain over DAY for the next 1/2 hour or so. ILN will see about an hour's worth of rain with the bulk of the thunder occurring before 18:30Z. Less strong storms with a marked decrease in electrical activity should be working into CMH/LCK shortly after 19Z. A slightly longer period of widely spaced convective cells will be followed by an also slightly longer time with stratiform rain in central Ohio.

With the expected next round of severe weather later today and this evening, TAFs will need to be amended as needed. Right now, cells that develop should be scattered, and merge to produce more widespread activity. Cells that remain on their own have the best chances to evolve into supercellular storms.

Daytime heating and increasing instability with backing winds and a bump in low level moisture will promote this second round of storms. Storms in this later environment will be more discrete and scattered versus coming in as a line, so VCTS seemed to be the better forecast for everyone attm. Storms exit to the south-southeast, first at DAY around 03Z, then by 05Z at the remaining TAF sites.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, ceilings and visibilities should remain VFR.

Clouds will begin to decrease after 06Z as the weather system exits east. Will need to watch for stratus/fog development in the pre-dawn hours if the clouds clear early.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible Wednesday night into early Thursday and again on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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