Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 4:43 PM   Moonset 3:03 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 516 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Today - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tonight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 516 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build over the waters through Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 200906 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 506 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft over Pennsylvania will bring dry conditions, light wind and warmer temperatures through Wednesday. A storm system moving north of the Great Lakes will push its southward trailing cold front through the region on Thursday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A light east to southeasterly low level flow was advecting an area of low stratus across the Lower Susq Valley and Western Poconos early this morning, while mainly clear skies elsewhere allowed the temp and dewpoints to dip into the mid 50s with the spread narrowing to a deg F or less. This has led to locally dense fog to form throughout the valleys of Scent PA, the Laurels and NW Mtns where the heaviest rain occurred over the past several days. Issued a Special Weather Statement to cover the fog over our SW zones where the fog is currently most widespread.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A bit different from Sunday AM, any low clouds and fog should burn away by 15Z and should help temps this afternoon rise a few to several degrees warmer than Sunday's maxes.

As noted by previous shifts and highlighted on multiple model guidance that show and axis of CAPE likely exceeding 1000 J/KG, there could be just enough instability across the nrn tier of and Western Mtns in the aftn to pop a few stray showers and and TSRA. Left PoPs in the 20-30pct range during the 20Z Monday to 00Z Tuesday.

Tonight will be similar to the last few nights, with perhaps less of a recurrence of the nighttime stratus. Valley fog is probable again tonight and will maintain the mention of patchy fog. Min temps early Tuesday in the upper 50s to around 60 will likely be a bit milder than Mon AM as well .

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Tuesday and Wednesday will be very warm days with south to southwesterly flow and plentiful sunshine. Expect highs to reach the 80s both days, and some valley spots could even touch 90 degrees on Wed aftn.

Surface low pressure is progged to track north of the Great Lakes and well north of PA during the mid to late week period.
The associated cold front will cross Pennsylvania Wed night or early Thurs, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.

After the front moves through, uncertainty remains as to how far to our south it will settle before stalling. This could keep a chc of showers across at least southern PA through the end of the week.

There is considerable uncertainty heading into next weekend, but it appears that there is a chc that our weather could remain unsettled.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Valley fog has developed across the northwest 2/3 of the airspace resulting in localized visibility at or below airfield minimums (1/2-1/4SM). Max IFR fog confidence is focused over the south central terminals AOO/JST/UNV based on obs trends and IR satellite imagery. Expect VFR/IFR fluctuations at BFD. MVFR to IFR stratus layer expanding over southeast PA and will impact LNS/MDT and perhaps IPT-which may also experience restrictions in fog through the predawn hours.

Valley fog will dissipate quickly in the morning, but the low clouds in the southeast airspace will be slower to break. MVFR ceilings could remain in place across the Lower Susquehanna Valley through 18Z. Widespread VFR conditions are expected once fog/low cloud erode with light winds. Some guidance shows the potential for a isolated thunderstorm across the northern tier later this afternoon, but confidence/coverage remains too low to include mention in the TAFs.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 03:43 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Mon -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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