Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Girt, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:40PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:56 AM EST (07:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:02PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 916 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft late. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain early in the morning, then rain in the late morning and afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight, then becoming se 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 10 seconds, building to 9 to 13 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Rain.
Fri..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers early in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 916 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure in place today will push northward tonight giving way to a coastal low pressure system moving up the east coast through Friday. High pressure builds from the west through the weekend. A weak cold front will cross the area Monday then high pressure settles across the eastern us through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Girt , NJ
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location: 40.13, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 150223
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
923 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure in place today will push northward tonight giving
way to a coastal low pressure system moving up the east coast
through Friday. High pressure builds from the west through the
weekend. A weak cold front will cross the area Monday then high
pressure settles across the eastern us through the middle of
next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
915 pm update: forecast through the overnight hours is in good
shape at the moment. Based on the somewhat drier dew points than
forecast and some of the latest hi-res guidance, questioning if
the onset of precipitation in most of the area is a little on
the fast side. Will pass along concerns to the next shift.

615 pm update: made some minor adjustments to temperatures and
dew points (especially the latter, which are generally too
high). Will be interesting to see if the dew points continue to
trend lower than forecast overnight, as this will likely have
implications on the onset of precipitation entering the cwa
Thursday. Additionally, greater surface dew point depressions
may have some implications on initial precipitation types across
the area, so this will have to be monitored closely overnight.

Previous discussion...

in the very near term it will remain quiet as low pressure briefly
builds in this evening. This will result in winds easing and with
just some high clouds around this will result in good conditions for
radiational cooling at least through this evening. However by the
overnight clouds thicken up from south to north ahead of the
advancing system. Expect though that any precip should hold off
until the morning. Lows will range from the upper teens in the
southern poconos to the 20s to around 30 across the i-95 corridor to
the low to mid 30s farther south.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday
The big story will be the deepening coastal storm which will
affect the area with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain for
Thursday, Thursday night into early Friday. This will be a
moisture laden system so expect the precip to be moderate to
heavy at times. Winter weather advisories are now in effect from
our counties through the i-95 corridor and points N w.

Early in the day Thursday, low pressure will be centered near the
carolina coast with a cold high centered over new england. The
leading edge of the precip looks to make its way into the area
through the morning... Beginning around 7 am over the delmarva,
reaching the philly around mid morning and northern areas of the
cwa around midday into the early afternoon. The biggest
challenge will be precipitation types. The low is progged to
take a track north along the coast through the day reaching a
point over eastern virginia or the chesapeake bay by Thursday
evening. Due to the cold airmass in place at the onset, most
areas look to start as snow or snow mixed with sleet and
freezing rain Thursday morning. The exception will be parts of
the DELMARVA and the nj coast where it may be pretty much all
rain due to strengthening NE winds bringing in milder marine air
(advisory level winds expected here by late day). However,
going through the late morning and beyond, the strengthening
easterly flow and warm advection pattern to the north of the low
will result in the profiles warming... Especially aloft. This
will result in snow and sleet generally transitioning to a
wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and eventually rain
from south to north. That said, a complicating factor that may
delay this process will be that the soundings will be fairly dry
initially and so as they saturate they may tend to briefly
cool. Also, as the precip becomes heavier midday through the
afternoon this may tend to cool soundings and flip precip
towards a period of moderate snow at times, even around philly.

The upshot is several hours of a messy wintry mix can be
expected Thursday along the i-95 corridor warranting the winter
weather advisory. In fact, for the reasons mentioned above, we
are forecasting temperatures a bit cooler than the model
consensus... Leaning toward the NAM which tends to perform well
in these types of situations. By late afternoon though, most of
the i-95 corridor at least from around trenton south should be
mainly rain and this may fall moderate to heavy at times due to
strong deep layer lift and anomalously moist conditions. In
fact we may have hydro concerns and this is further discussed in
the section below.

Thursday night... Low pressure continues advancing north while rapidly
deepening... Taking a track right along the coast or just
inland. The transition for snow wintry mix to rain should
continue south to north except that areas north of the i-78 i-80
corridor look to stay below freezing meaning snow and ice look
to continue through the storm's duration. Farther south, with
the low tracking near or right overhead this may result in a
lull in the precipitation Thursday evening as a dry slot may try
to work in from the south. Daytime highs over the i-95 corridor
will only be in the 30s but as the low moves through this will
draw up milder air so actually expect temps to rise into
Thursday night. In fact parts of nj and the DELMARVA look to
temporarily rise into the 40s to low 50s.

By the late Thursday night early Friday time frame, the low looks to
be near nyc and will be drawing in very strong NW winds with
falling temperatures in its wake. This could result in a
changeover back to snow as far south as philly or at least the
philly suburbs as temperatures fall back through the 30s with
the cold advection in the low's wake. In fact, this "backlash"
snow could even be briefly heavy as the low continues to rapidly
deepen as it pulls away. The good news is that the precip
should move out by mid to late morning with gusty west winds
continuing through the day though in the system's wake due to
the strong pressure gradient
total snow amounts Thursday look to be upwards of an inch or two
around the i-95 corridor with some icing on top of this before
the change to rain occurs Thursday night. Amounts increase
heading NW with upwards of 2-4 inches of snow expected over the
southern poconos followed by one to two tenths of an inch of
ice. In fact, depending on how much heavy precip falls before
the snow changes over upwards of 5-6 inches could fall in spots
over the southern poconos. Total liquid QPF with the system
looks to generally be 1.5 to 2 inches... Heaviest over coastal nj
into the DELMARVA where it will be mainly rain thus leading to
the possible hydro concerns.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The coastal storm that affects the area Thursday-early Friday
will continue to lift into the canadian maritimes while another
low pressure moves into eastern canada as well. Meanwhile, high
pressure will build toward the east coast and weaken as it moves
just to our south on Saturday. In between these systems,
northwest flow will continue across the area through Saturday.

While dry weather is expected to continue, there may remain
cloud cover with the northwest flow entrenched across the area.

Sunday and Monday... Upper flow Sunday will be zonal across the
eastern CONUS with westerly flow locking in a cool and dry
continental airmass in place through much of the extended
period. Sunday will feature mostly cloudy skies, but dry
conditions through at least the first half of the day. A
shortwave trough will sweep quickly across the great lakes
region Sunday before crossing our region into Monday. This will
push a weak cold front through our area. Given ample low to mid
level moisture and sufficient forcing in place, will likely see
a round of quick moving rain snow showers late Sunday into early
Monday, with exact timing depending on the evolution and timing
of this shortwave feature. Any potential snowfall accumulations
appear to be light at this time (less than 1") and confined
primarily to the poconos and higher terrain where temps will be
cold enough to support accumulations.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Somewhat drier and cooler air filters in
behind the front late Monday into Tuesday. Another shortwave trough
passage appears probable at some point Tuesday, but with the drier
airmass in place, only expecting a slight increase in cloud cover
with no precip. Another shortwave trough passage appears possible
again Wednesday, which would bring increasing clouds and perhaps
some flurries or light snow showers to the poconos. Temps will
continue to remain below normal with highs generally in the upper
30s to 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Tonight...VFR conditions will continue across the TAF sites.

Winds have shifted to the north and northeast and will generally
remain around or below 10 kts.

Thursday...VFR conditions will likely start the morning for all
areas; however, they will diminish through the morning to MVFR
and ifr by the afternoon as a wintry mix moves across the taf
sites. Precipitation likely starts out as snow and sleet, then
begins to mix with rain or freezing rain, before changing to all
rain for ilg phl pne ttn during the afternoon. Acy miv may
remain all rain after a brief mix of rain sleet snow early in
the morning hours.

A light snow sleet accumulation of an inch or less if possible for
ilg phl pne along with a trace or light glaze of ice. Ttn rdg abe
have a better chance of seeing 1-3 inches of snow sleet, along with
less than one-tenth of an inch of ice. Acy miv should have not
accumulation.

Northeast winds will increase through the day, and become gusty by
the late morning and into the afternoon at least 20-30 knots
everywhere. Strongest winds toward the coast of 35-45 knots. Acy is
expected to have the strongest winds for TAF sites of 30-40
knots.

Thursday night... Ifr conditions expected to be ongoing across the
area and continue through the night Thursday as precipitation lifts
across the area. All sites expected to warm enough for all rain by
Thursday evening, except rdg abe which may hold on to frozen freezing
precipitation through the night.

Northeast winds continue to be quite gusty into the evening 20-30
knots, 30-40 knots near the coast before diminishing some overnight
as the winds shift toward the northwest. Winds likely to increase
again toward daybreak Friday and become gusty once again.

Friday... Ifr conditions likely to start the day with a chance of
snow in the morning, before lifting to MVFR later in the morning and
afternoon once snow ends. Winds remain gusty out of the west to
northwest 20-30 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday night... MVFR conditions may occur periodically.

Sunday-Monday... MVFR conditions expected with a chance of
showers.

Marine
915 pm update: small craft advisory was dropped for the
northern central nj waters, as conditions are now below
criteria.

615 pm update: extended small craft advisory for the
northern central nj coastal waters as winds continue to hover
around 25 kts. The remaining portions of the advisory have been
dropped.

Previous discussion...

once the winds drop below 25 knots, conditions will remain
below advisory levels through much of the overnight hours,
though winds will increase again toward daybreak in advance of
the approaching coastal storm.

A gale warning has been issued for Thursday as winds will
increase significantly in advance of an approaching coastal
storm. Wind gusts of 35-45 knots are expected to develop across
the atlantic ocean waters and delaware bay through the morning
and afternoon hours. There is a chance winds could approach
storm force across the atlantic ocean waters; however,
confidence is not high enough to issue a storm watch at this
time.

Outlook...

Thursday night-Friday... Gale warning remains in effect winds
35-45 knots will continue. Winds shift from east-northeast, to
west to northwest overnight Thursday.

Friday night... Winds expected to diminish to small craft
advisory levels during the evening hours.

Saturday-Monday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels with west-northwest winds 10-15 knots.

Hydrology
Precipitation moves in south to north beginning around daybreak
Thursday across delmarva. The heaviest precipitation is expected to
fall during the day Thursday and persist into early evening.

Highest QPF resides along the coast. In general, we are expecting
1.00 to 2.00 inches of liquid. It will stay all rain across the
coastal plain, mixing at the onset across and near the i95 corridor.

There will be more of a longer duration wintry mix across the
lehigh valley, berks county, the southern poconos, and NW nj.

With it being wet as of late, the ground remains moist. This will
increase runoff. Nuisance type flooding is to be expected across the
coastal plain where the highest QPF resides. Poor drainage and low
lying flooding will occur. Further to the west, the same type of
flooding is then expected to develop across the delaware valley and
surrounding locales as the precipitation changes into plain rain.

Clogged drains due to leaves can also exacerbate flooding this time
of year.

As far as our river forecast points go, continue to monitor
pemberton in burlington county, pine brook on the passaic river and
blackwells mills on the millstone. The schuylkill and delaware
mainstems are not expected to flood.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong onshore flow will precede the passage of the coastal storm
Thursday and Friday. This raises concerns for the possibility of
coastal flooding during this period. However, there are two factors
working against a more substantial coastal flooding threat. The
first is that we are between the new and full moon phases, so the
astronomical tides are fairly low. The second is that the period of
strong onshore flow will be fairly brief (generally less than 24
hours).

Nevertheless, given the strength of the onshore winds, we are
somewhat concerned that forecast models are a little bit low on
tidal levels Thursday afternoon through Friday. More concerning is
the variability in model output for the tidal levels during this
period, as the stevens institute ensembles indicate. With the
october 27 event as a recent guide, we will need to assess the tidal
gauge forecasts leading up to the event (including low tides, in an
effort to determine how much water recedes given the opposing strong
onshore flow, something that is not well modeled in general). Though
the current forecast has no advisory-level flooding at any of the
forecast tidal gauges in our CWA during the Thursday Friday high
tides, we cannot rule out the possibility of at least spotty minor
flooding, particularly in northern central new jersey and primarily
for the Thursday night and Friday afternoon high tides.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 10 am Thursday to 7 am est Friday
for paz060>062.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am to 9 pm est Thursday for
paz103-105-106.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 3 pm est Thursday for
paz070-071-101-102-104.

Winter weather advisory from noon Thursday to 9 am est Friday
for paz054-055.

Nj... Winter weather advisory from 10 am Thursday to 7 am est Friday
for njz007-008.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am to 9 pm est Thursday for
njz009-010-012-015.

Wind advisory from 3 pm Thursday to 3 am est Friday for njz013-
014-020-026-027.

Wind advisory from 1 pm to 11 pm est Thursday for njz022>025.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 3 pm est Thursday for
njz016>019.

Winter weather advisory from noon Thursday to 9 am est Friday
for njz001.

De... Wind advisory from 1 pm to 11 pm est Thursday for dez003-004.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 3 pm est Thursday for
dez001.

Md... Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 3 pm est Thursday for
mdz008.

Marine... Gale warning from 9 am Thursday to 6 pm est Friday for anz430-
431-452>455.

Gale warning from 1 pm Thursday to 6 pm est Friday for anz450-
451.

Synopsis... Staarmann
near term... Cms fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Robertson staarmann
aviation... Robertson staarmann
marine... Cms robertson staarmann
hydrology... Kruzdlo
tides coastal flooding... Cms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 23 mi39 min NNE 6 G 11 33°F 47°F1036.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi37 min NNE 16 G 21 34°F 55°F1035.8 hPa16°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi39 min 33°F 49°F1035.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi39 min ENE 12 G 14 33°F 1035.9 hPa
MHRN6 36 mi39 min NNE 8.9 G 11
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi39 min NE 2.9 G 7 32°F 45°F1036.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi39 min 33°F 52°F1035.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi81 min NE 5.1 G 6 33°F 45°F1034.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi87 min NNW 5.1 31°F 1034 hPa16°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi67 min NNE 16 G 19 35°F 55°F3 ft1035.1 hPa (-0.5)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi39 min 52°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi61 minN 410.00 miFair32°F19°F61%1035.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi1.9 hrsVar 310.00 miFair33°F18°F54%1034.8 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi61 minN 610.00 miFair32°F18°F56%1035.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmNW3CalmSW3CalmCalmW3SW5S6S6S5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4NE3N4NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:31 PM EST     3.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:00 PM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.32.82.11.61.31.11.21.72.433.53.83.83.42.61.91.30.90.70.91.52.22.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mantoloking, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Mantoloking
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:37 AM EST     0.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:43 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:48 PM EST     0.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.