Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Como, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:55PM Thursday September 21, 2017 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:59AMMoonset 8:00PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1248 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late Friday night...
This afternoon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
ANZ400 1248 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Tropical storm jose will move slowly north and northeastward off the southeast new england coastline through tonight. Jose will then weaken and drift slowly westward through the weekend. High pressure will continue to slowly build eastward into the region and become firmly established for the remainder of the week into early next week. Hurricane maria will move northward into the southern atlantic waters staying offshore during the early and middle part of next week. &&

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Como , NJ
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location: 40.16, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 211359
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
959 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Synopsis
Tropical storm jose will move slowly north and northeastward off the
southeast new england coastline through tonight. Jose will then
weaken and drift slowly westward through the weekend. High pressure
will continue to slowly build eastward into the region and become
firmly established for the remainder of the week into early next
week. Hurricane maria will move northward into the southern atlantic
waters staying offshore during the early and middle part of next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Minor updates, mainly for temperatures and cloud cover today,
was done for the 930 am estf. Temperatures at 925 mb and 850 mb
from the 12z RAOB for kiad and kokx were very similar to
yesterday (less than 1c cooler today). Therefore, bumped up
temperatures for this afternoon ever-so-slightly so they are
closer in line with observed highs yesterday. Highs today are
forecast to be near 80f along the coast and in the higher
elevations of NE pa NW nj and mid 80s just about everywhere
else. A few spots in the urban corridor may reach the upper 80s.

The recent warm stretch continues with highs about 10 degrees
above normal for the last full day of summer!
the mid level ridge over the eastern half of the country will
keep our region warm and precipitation-free for today.

Meanwhile, the center of tropical storm jose will remain about
350 miles east of the new jersey coast. There is a potential
for high clouds from tropical storm jose to expand westward
into portions of nj and possibly slightly west of the delaware
valley this afternoon per moisture fields from the latest 06z
gfs and last few runs of the hrrr. However, predominately keep
skies mostly sunny as the high clouds should be mostly thin,
allowing for plenty of sunshine for this last full day of
summer.

Winds will vary from NW to n-ne wind between 5 and 15 mph
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Dry weather is forecast to continue for tonight as the ridge remains
overhead and as jose moves very slowly westward. High clouds are
expected.

The wind direction should favor the north at speeds of 7 mph or
less. Minimum temperatures are anticipated to favor the upper 50s
and lower 60s in our region.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Jose will continue an eastward northeastward movement away from our
region as high pressure continues to become established over the
region.

Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite warm
for mid-september yield highs in the 80's for a good portion of
the region after starting warm in the 60's. Mav met in better
alignment with this now through Saturday. Temperatures will
likely be several degrees warmer than the mean of the ensemble
guidance based on the anomalous warm pattern expected by Sunday.

Highs Sunday may make a run at 90 in a few spots.

Monday through Wednesday:
ensemble guidance continues to show a much weaker jose making a loop
back to the southwest by early next week but at a very slow pace. It
would not be surprising to see jose decay totally before it would
reach our area. Will continue with the slight to low shower chances
south and east of philadelphia for the early part of next week from
whatever is left of jose. Moisture may move into the region from
maria as well to keep these chances going through Wednesday.

Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region with a
strong - pna pattern of almost four standard deviations. A similar
theme of anomalous warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble
guidance may still be playing catch up to the pattern that is
expected to occur. Highs were raised a couple of degrees from the
ensemble mean with a few locations making a run close to 90 on
Monday as well. Stayed closer to the mean of the ensemble guidance
for Tuesday and Wednesday given the uncertainty with jose and maria.

Nhc wpc forecast guidance currently shows maria remaining to our
southeast and staying offshore through the middle of next week. Stay
tuned to the latest advisories and forecasts from the national
hurricane forecast for more information on jose and maria.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions are forecast through the TAF period with one
exception. Low confidence for fog toward early Friday morning around
krdg along the schuylkill river.

Winds will vary slightly in direction between n-nw (~330 deg)
and n-ne (~030 deg) and in speeds between ~5 and 12 kt today.

Wind speeds will likely diminish to 5 kt or less for tonight.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday:VFR. Winds generally 10 knots
or less. Northerly wind gusts around 15 knots Friday afternoon.

Marine
A north to northwest wind is expected on our waters for today and
tonight. Speeds are anticipated to favor the 8 to 16 knot range.

Wave heights on our ocean waters will likely remain in the 4 to 6
foot neighborhood. As a result, a small craft advisory is in effect
there. Waves on delaware bay are forecast to be 1 to 3 feet, perhaps
reaching 4 feet near the mouth of the bay.

Outlook...

seas are expected to remain above five feet throughout the outlook
period and the SCA was extended till 10z Saturday on the coastal
waters. Wavewatch is likely being too aggressive in reducing
swells and wave heights from jose. Additional swell and
increased wave heights are likely by early next week in
association with maria. Wind gusts are expected to be under 25
knots.

Rip currents...

long period swells of 4 to 5 feet emanating from tropical storm jose
will continue to reach the coasts of delaware and new jersey today.

As a result, we will carry a high risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents.

Outlook:
Friday and Saturday a moderate or high risk.

Sunday through Wednesday are outlooked high risk days with the
greatest risk Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Leftover jose
swells combined with newly arriving southeast swells from maria.

Tides coastal flooding
The potential for widesperad minor flooding has decreased for today
along the coasts of delaware and new jersey and on the upper eastern
shore of chesapeake bay. While localized minor flooding is expected
around the times of high tide, the flooding should not be widespread
or impactful enough to warrant another coastal flood advisory.

We will continue to keep an eye on jose and the system's
possible impact on tide level on Friday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for njz014-
024>026.

De... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Saturday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Iovino klein
short term... Iovino
long term... Gaines
aviation... Gaines iovino klein
marine... Gaines iovino klein
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi43 min N 5.1 G 9.9 77°F 71°F1016 hPa (-0.9)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi53 min N 9.7 G 12 73°F 70°F3 ft1014.3 hPa (-0.8)65°F
44091 29 mi43 min 69°F4 ft
MHRN6 34 mi43 min NE 9.9 G 12
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi43 min 79°F 72°F1015.2 hPa (-0.9)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi43 min NNE 11 G 13 78°F 1015.9 hPa (-0.7)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi43 min NE 5.1 G 7 85°F 73°F1015.9 hPa (-1.0)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi53 min N 14 G 16 70°F 67°F6 ft1014.3 hPa (-0.7)64°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi67 min 83°F 72°F1015.1 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 47 mi43 min NE 6 G 7 75°F 71°F1016.1 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi47 minN 610.00 miFair78°F64°F62%1016.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi1.7 hrsVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F64°F58%1015.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi47 minN 710.00 miFair79°F64°F62%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN16
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2 days agoNE9NE9NE8NE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Island, fixed RR. bridge, Shark River, New Jersey
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Shark River Island
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Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT     5.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:24 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:17 PM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.10.1-0.30.11.22.63.955.454.12.91.70.6-0.100.92.23.64.65.154.2

Tide / Current Tables for Riviera Beach, New Jersey
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Riviera Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:54 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:27 AM EDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:41 PM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.40.6-0.1-0.30.21.22.43.54.14.13.62.81.910.3-0.10.112.23.23.943.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.