Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Como, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:07PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 2:27 AM EST (07:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:21PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 924 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. Showers likely.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
ANZ400 924 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. In the wake of a strong cold front, high pressure will gradually build east through the remainder of the week before moving out to sea Saturday. A cold front and low pressure then arrives from the west on Sunday and proceeds offshore next Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Como , NJ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.16, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kphi 240707
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
207 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Synopsis
In the wake of a strong cold front, high pressure will gradually build
east through the remainder of the week, before moving out to sea
Saturday. A cold front and low pressure then arrives from the west
on Sunday and proceeds offshore next Monday.

Near term through today
1230 am estf: raised early morning low temps per raided wind
gusts (mixing-flushing out the warm airmass) and added quite a
bit of skycover in the cold air advection pattern. Isolated
radiational cooling should not last long.

Today... Partly to mostly cloudy this morning with probably some
thinning of the cold air advection cloud cover mid afternoon. A
gusty northwest wind of 25 to 30 mph this morning-midday should
diminish a bit by mid afternoon. Stayed close (raised 1f) to
the prev fcst MAX temps which are decidedly cooler than the
00z 24 GFS mos. Still the daytime high temp should be within 4f
of normal.

Short term tonight
Mid and high cloud increases late, especially pa nj. Otherwise
a diminished wind but temps winds were basically a continuity
forecast from the previous 330 pm Tuesday forecast. Low temps
basically within 2f of normal.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
This section will update by around 330 am.

With ongoing weather earlier today, few changes made in the long
term from the previous forecast.

500mb: another short wave trough moves a cross the mid atlantic
coast Wednesday night followed by substantial ridging Friday and
Saturday, then another trough develops to the east coast next Sunday
and Monday.

Temperature: calendar day averages should range between 3 and 7
degrees above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and Friday, on
Saturday near 10 degrees above normal, Sunday probably 12 to 18
degrees above normal, cooling a bit to 5 to 10 degrees above next
Monday.

Forecast basis: Wednesday-Thursday is based on a blended 00z 22
gfs NAM mos, Thursday night-Friday was based on the 00z 22 GFS mex
mos and then d4-8 was based on the 0441z wpc guidance.

Thursday... Mostly sunny and brisk. Northwest gusty 20-25 mph. Max
temps 2 to 7f below normal. The Thu night mins about 2f below
normal. Confidence: above average.

Friday... Mostly sunny. Wind becoming light southwest. MAX temps near
normal. Confidence: above average.

Saturday... Increasing clouds and milder. Southwest gust 20 to 30
mph. Chance of showers at night. MAX temps 10 to 15f above normal.

Sat night mins. Probably 15 to 20 degrees above normal! Confidence:
above average.

Sunday... Showers with a coldfront and developing low pressure on the
front. This part of the fcst differs considerably than what i'd
anticipated earlier and it is a GEFS combo with the ggem and ecmwf
both pretty confidence on a wet 12 to 24 hours much more so than the
00z 23 GFS op. So have followed wpc guidance pops. MAX temp 10 to 15
above normal. Gusty southerly flow with a wind shift to west
probable at night. Confidence on overall scenario: above average but
below average on details including timing cfp.

Monday... Cooler but daytime MAX temps still probably 5f above
normal. GFS continues to depict a mid or upper level short wave
trough digging south through this period, allowing for snow showers
on the back side of this. However, other models have slight
differences in the track and intensity of the trough, keeping our
area dry. Thus, expect showers to be ending or gone by this period.

Confidence: average.

Tuesday... Strong cold air advection continues behind the cold front.

High temperatures are expected to be slightly be normal. Confidence:
average.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...VFR, with some clouds around 5,000 feet
mainly west of phl. West-northwest winds around 10 knots overall
with a few gusts 15-20 kt.

Today...VFR generally broken clouds at or above 3,500 feet
thinning this afternoon. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots, perhaps even 28 kt this morning
tonight...VFR. Sct-bkn clouds AOA 4000 ft, mostly AOA 15000 ft.

Northwest wind may gust 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR. West to northwest wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday...VFR. Light wind becoming southwest.

Saturday...VFR gusty southwest wind 20-30 kt. Chance of MVFR conds
later at night in showers.

Sunday... MVFR or lower conditions with low clouds and rain likely.

Light southwesterly winds.

Marine
Sca today and may extend at 330 am into tonight. Still needs
evaluation.

Outlook...

Thursday... A west northwest wind could gust around 25 knots and
the small craft advisory may need to be extended in time.

Thursday night through Friday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

Saturday... A southwest wind small craft advisory may be needed.

Sunday... No marine headlines anticipated.

Hydrology
Forecast points... With up to two inches of rain across portions
of schuylkill county, rises were quick Tuesday morning at the
landingville USGS gauge. Landingville has crested and water is
currently working down the schuylkill. Crest forecasts have been
updated for all points on the schuylkill. Although berne has
reached caution action stage, no flooding is expected at any
forecast point on the schuylkill.

Snow... Any remaining snow on the ground, which is near zero across
much of the hsa, is hydrologically insignificant.

River ice... We continue to receive reports of solid ice cover on the
delaware river, but conditions are not as widespread as last week.

We know of solid ice near trenton from about the route 1 bridge
south down to about borderntown, or near the head of the tide. We
also know of ice further north near and in the delaware water gap.

With the warm temperatures the last few days combined with today's
precipitation and rising water levels, melting and fracturing ice
will occur. Restrictions in flow or ice jams are possible as ice
breaks up and begins to move.

Since ice jams can not be predicted with certainty, the best
approach is awareness and to take notice of day to day changes on a
river or stream of concern.

Climate
For what its worth: acy is already 8" above the entire seasonal
normal snowfall... 24.2" vs entire season 16.2.

January average temps... Negative departure will warm another
degree or degree and one half for the rest of the month over the
entire area so that monthly norms be below normal except possibly
abe.

Will provide detail projection for phl around 430 am.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until noon est today for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Drag
short term... Drag
long term... Johnson
aviation... Drag johnson
marine... Drag johnson
hydrology...

climate... Drag 207a


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi40 min WSW 12 G 13 41°F 37°F1008.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi38 min WSW 9.7 G 12 43°F 40°F5 ft1007.5 hPa (+0.7)34°F
44091 29 mi28 min 42°F7 ft
MHRN6 34 mi40 min WSW 11 G 15
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi46 min 43°F 37°F1007.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi40 min WSW 13 G 17 44°F 1008.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 37 mi40 min 41°F 37°F1008.1 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi40 min W 6 G 8 41°F 33°F1009.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi38 min W 14 G 16 43°F 42°F8 ft1007.8 hPa (+1.1)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi52 min W 8.9 G 9.9 41°F 33°F1008.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 47 mi40 min WNW 11 G 15 43°F 35°F1007.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last
24hr
E5
SE8
SE7
SE7
G10
S17
S15
G20
S18
G22
S16
G20
S18
S14
G17
SW9
G14
S5
S5
S7
NW23
G29
W11
G16
W8
G12
W18
G26
W14
G18
W13
G18
W15
W10
W11
W11
1 day
ago
SE2
SE2
S3
SE1
--
--
--
NE2
E2
NE4
NE4
E4
G7
SE7
G10
SE8
G12
E7
G10
E5
E8
G11
E9
G13
E10
G13
E8
G12
NE7
E8
G11
E8
G11
E5
G9
2 days
ago
W6
W7
W6
NW5
W2
NW7
W7
W7
W2
W6
W8
SW4
S8
S10
S5
S6
S8
S6
SE3
SE4
SE3

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi32 minSW 710.00 miFair40°F28°F65%1009.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi88 minW 710.00 miFair36°F30°F82%1008.1 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi32 minSW 510.00 miFair32°F30°F92%1010.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrS6S6S8S9S11
G19
S13
G18
S12
G15
SW9
G16
S10
G18
S12
G21
SW10
G14
SW4SW5SW4W5W13
G21
W9W17
G27
W10W8W11W9
G17
W8SW7
1 day agoCalmSE3S5S4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E9E6E6E6E4E4NE5NE4NE3E5E5SE4
2 days agoW7SW6SW5W6W4W4SW5NW6W8NW9W9--W8W3SE5E4E3SE5S3S5SE3S4S4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Island, fixed RR. bridge, Shark River, New Jersey
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Shark River Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:08 AM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:30 PM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 06:52 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.93.32.31.40.90.60.60.91.72.73.53.93.93.42.51.50.70.20.10.41.12.23.3

Tide / Current Tables for Riviera Beach, New Jersey
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Riviera Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:30 AM EST     3.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:52 PM EST     3.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:39 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.13.12.82.21.50.90.60.40.50.91.62.42.932.92.31.60.90.40.10.10.41.22.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.