Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon-by-the-Sea, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday May 26, 2019 3:02 PM EDT (19:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:47AMMoonset 12:27PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1217 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers until early morning.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1217 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will continue to move away from the area this morning. A cold front attached to low pressure across canada will move through the region later today. High pressure will settle across the area Monday then another disturbance will be across the area Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected for the middle and end of the upcoming week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon-by-the-Sea , NJ
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location: 40.18, -73.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 261837 cca
afdphi
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service mount holly nj
237 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will continue to move away from the area this morning.

A cold front attached to low pressure across canada will move
through the region later today. High pressure will settle across the
area Monday then another disturbance will be across the area
Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected for the middle and end of
the upcoming week.

Near term through tonight
Convection continues over central pa. So far, the storms haven't
shown a persistent severe threat. Part of this could be due to
the fact that anvils are spreading out in the direction of
travel of the storms, which is causing the air immediately
downstream of the storms to be slightly cooler. Also, it looks
likely that the dry air in the mid levels is still in place, as
evidenced by the surface dewpoints decreasing as the mixing
layer increases. Further, the convective temp on the 12z iad
sounding was above 90, so we still have a few decrees to go to
erode the cap.

None the less, still expect the risk of severe storms to
increase as we head into the late afternoon, especially as the
front approaches our region. Therefore, have kept a mention of
severe storms in the forecast, and will continue to monitor the
radar trends. It still looks like the highest risk is from
philadelphia southward, where MLCAPE values could get close to
1000 j kg. Additionally, bulk shear values (almost entirely
speed shear) will be near 40 kts.

The primary hazard looks to be damaging winds (possible both due
to stronger winds mixing down, and some downburst potential with
mid level dry air entrainment). It looks like the hail threat
may be more limited than previously expected as the CAPE profile
is mostly below the hail growth region. I still can't rule it
out though, so will continue to mention in the hwo. Still looks
like the tornado threat is negligible as there is very little
shear within the boundary layer.

Storms should shift south through the evening. By midnight,
storms should be mostly confined to delmarva. The severe threat
should also end by midnight as well as the low level inversion
develops behind the cold front.

For the rest of the region, drier air should start to filter in
behind the cold front late this evening, leading to clearing
conditions. Depending on how quickly the front arrives,
temperatures could drop into the 50s, but more likely, low level
moisture will keep temperatures from dropping below 60 for much
of the area.

Short term Monday
Memorial day should be a pleasant day for much of the region.

The only possible exception is portions of delmarva. If the
front stalls over this area, showers and storms could linger in
delmarva through the day. Although there is still some
uncertainty, so I stayed close to the previous forecast, it is
worth noting that some of the 12z models show this front
clearing much further south, leaving the entire region dry.

Temperatures behind the front will be 5 to 10 degrees lower than
Sunday, with highs mostly in the 70s and lower 80s. Despite the
northwesterly flow, a sea breeze could develop later in the
day, cooling coastal areas further.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
A rather changeable pattern across the area this upcoming week with
alternating days of (mostly) dry weather and some weak systems which
will bring some sct showers and tstms. Right now, Wed Fri are
probably going to be the days with the lowest pops. Although
there could be some morning showers across DELMARVA early mon.

On wed, a couple showers psbl far N w.

Tue will see low pressure and a front affecting the area, so showers
and some tstms are expected with the greatest pops (likely) across
the NRN areas. The models become somewhat varied by Thu fri, but the
possibility for some showers will be retained with the GFS and ec
showing some rains arriving late thu.

Some much above normal temperatures will arrive during the middle of
the week with upper 80s and low 90s in many areas. Up until then,
above normal readings (4 to 6 degrees above) will be over the area
mon tue. The much above normal will probably break late next week,
with readings back near normal for Fri sat.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions are expected to continue through 18z.

After 18z, there is a chance for tsra across the region. Any
storms will be capable of variable and gusty winds, and possibly
some hail. At this point, have a tempo group to include the
threat with the first potential round of storms, but additional
rounds of storms will be possible continuing into the tonight
period. Winds will generally be from the west around 10 kts with
occasional gusts to 15-20kts.

Tonight... Showers thunderstorms will continue to be possible
through 06z. Once storms move south of the TAF sites, expectVFR
conditions for the remainder of the night. Winds shifting more
northerly overnight, but speeds should stay near or below 10 kt.

Monday...VFR conditions are expected with northerly light winds
through the day. The one exception is that a sea breeze could
develop after 18z which could shift winds at kacy and kmiv to
southeasterly.

Outlook...

tue...VFR much of the time. A few showers early Monday and tue.

Wed thu...VFR wed. Sct showers later Thu with lower conditions
psbl.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
conditions into this evening. Thunderstorms with gusty erratic
winds will be possible through this evening.

Outlook...

generally sub-sca thru the period. There is the possibility for
some SCA gusts later thu, but confid in this is low attm. Sct
showers and tstms Mon morning, Tue and thu.

Rip currents...

the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is low through
this evening. An increasing long period swell may increase the
risk to moderate on memorial day.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi33 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 77°F 63°F1013.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi33 min S 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 62°F1012.4 hPa62°F
44091 30 mi33 min 62°F3 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi39 min 85°F 63°F1011.8 hPa
MHRN6 33 mi33 min W 8.9 G 12
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi33 min WSW 8.9 G 11 84°F 1011.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi33 min 78°F 58°F1011.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi33 min WNW 6 G 8 85°F 67°F1013.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi73 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 60°F4 ft1013.4 hPa (-0.9)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi33 min W 5.1 G 8.9 82°F 59°F1012.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi87 min WNW 5.1 G 8 83°F 66°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi67 minWNW 810.00 miFair87°F60°F40%1013.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ20 mi2 hrsWNW 11 miFair87°F64°F48%1013.3 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ24 mi67 minNW 1010.00 miFair88°F60°F39%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
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Sun -- 01:27 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:45 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 02:08 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.34.23.72.821.30.90.81.11.82.53.23.73.93.73.12.521.61.41.52.12.7

Tide / Current Tables for Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Route 35 bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:56 AM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 02:37 PM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:32 PM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.63.83.52.821.40.90.70.81.31.92.533.43.432.41.91.51.31.31.62.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.