Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon-by-the-Sea, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:46PM Sunday August 20, 2017 12:12 AM EDT (04:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 7:09PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 929 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Overnight..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less after midnight. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt late in the morning, then becoming S with gusts up to 15 kt early in the afternoon, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 929 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A surface trough moves across the region tonight. High pressure currently over the midwest builds overhead on Sunday, and then moves offshore Sunday night. High pressure remains anchored off the mid- atlantic coast through Tuesday before drifting out to sea Tuesday night. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday, and then low pressure may move along the coast Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure then builds east for the end of the week and into the start of the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon-by-the-Sea , NJ
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location: 40.18, -73.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200144
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
944 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
A surface trough moves across the region tonight. High pressure
currently over the midwest builds overhead on Sunday, and then
moves offshore Sunday night. High pressure remains anchored off
the mid- atlantic coast through Tuesday before drifting out to
sea Tuesday night. A cold front moves across the region on
Wednesday, and then low pressure may move along the coast
Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure then builds east for the
end of the week and into the start of the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
The main line of thunderstorms is finally trending weaker and
beginning to break apart. However, discrete showers and
thunderstorms across maryland and virginia have developed and
think these have a good chance to move into DELMARVA as there
are still dew points in the 70s across delmarva. Thus, adjusted
pops to include the entire region. Still, expect activity to be
finished by early Sunday morning.

Some patchy fog may develop overnight through daybreak, but we
do not expect any fog to be very dense or widespread.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
High pressure tries to build across the area from the west on
Sunday, although a weak surface trough may develop along the
east coast. With a lack of moisture and upper level support, no
precipitation and little in the way of clouds is expected for
Sunday. Temperatures will again warm several degrees above
normal, but dewpoints will be even lower than Saturday, so it
will not feel as oppressive as it has the last couple of days.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
High pressure over the area Sunday night drifts offshore and
then becomes centered off the mid-atlantic coast on Monday.

Return flow sets up on Monday and surface dewpoints slowly
build throughout the day. Dewpoints climb to around 70 across
the delmarva, and in the low to mid 60s elsewhere.

With high pressure still in control of much of the region,
expecting mostly sunny skies for most of the region Monday
afternoon for most of nj and southeast pa. Sunshine may be
filtered through some cirrus, but it should not be enough to
block viewing of the eclipse. In addition, diurnally driven
cumulus will develop during the day, and it will be interesting
to see if that diurnally driven cumulus dissipates a bit during
the time of the eclipse, and if it redevelops after the eclipse
ends.

The exception will be for the DELMARVA and into extreme
southern nj. With onshore flow and some weak shortwave energy
approaching from the west, there should be more in the way of
cloud cover in the afternoon, and there could be a few showers
and thunderstorms moving into northeast md and into de in the
afternoon.

Highs on Monday will top off in the mid to upper 80s, but it
will also be interesting to see if hourly temps fall off during
the eclipse, and how they rebound once it ends.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue into
the evening as those mid-level shortwaves move across the
region.

High pressure off the mid-atlantic coast continues to slowly
drift out to sea on Tuesday. A cold front over the midwest
continues to advance to the east. A pre-frontal trough develops
out ahead of the front, and that trough may touch off some showers
and thunderstorms across the delaware and lehigh valleys and
northwest nj Tuesday afternoon and evening.

That cold front works its way across the region Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. That front moves offshore
Wednesday night, and then a much cooler and dryer airmass builds
east.

Canadian high pressure then drops into the upper midwest, and
will be centered over the great lakes on Thursday. That high
gradually builds east through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Temperatures fall below normal during this time with
highs generally in the 70s to around 80. Lows at night fall into
the upper 50s to low 60s, with cooler temperatures in the
mountains. With low humidity levels, this should result in
comfortable sleeping nights.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MostlyVFR conditions expected across the TAF sites through the
taf period. There is a chance that showers and a thunderstorm
could move into kilg and kmiv by 06z, but expect the showers
currently to the west to be gradually diminishing in coverage.

Thus, not enough confidence to include in the tafs at this time.

There could be some patchy fog overnight through daybreak, but
we do not expect any fog to be very dense or widespread.

Northwest winds will become southwesterly this afternoon and
evening before becoming light and variable most places
overnight. Winds will increase again after sunrise Sunday. An
occasional gust around 15 knots is possible this afternoon and
Sunday afternoon, but they are not expected to be very frequent.

Outlook...

Sunday night... MainlyVFR. Some patchy fog may result in vsby
restrictions at krdg kabe kmiv kacy late at night.

Monday...VFR. Isolated shra tsra possible, mainly at kilg kmiv.

Tuesday...VFR. Scattered shra tsra possible, mainly at krdg kabe
in the afternoon.

Wednesday... Sub-vfr conditions in shra tsra.

Thursday...VFR.

Marine
Sub small craft advisory conditions expected through Sunday.

Winds will shift to the southwest everywhere by this evening and
overnight, then become west to northwest by daybreak through
midday. Then begin shifting back to a south-southwest direction
by the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday... A prolonged period of
predominantly sub-sca conditions expected on the waters. The
exception is Tuesday night through Wednesday, as southerly
winds may result in 25 kt wind gusts and 5 foot seas during that
time. Showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters, mainly
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

Rip currents
Waves on the ocean are running around 2-3 feet with a 5-6
second period. Winds along the northern half of the jersey shore
have shifted to the south, while southern jersey shore and
delaware remain northwest. Everyone is expected to become
southwesterly by the late afternoon. Overall expectation is for
the risk of rip currents to be low, with a few locations with a
more moderate risk, such as lbi.

Sunday's risk is expected to be similar as Saturday as seas are
expected to be a little lower and winds will likely react the
same way; starting northwest, then shifting southwest by
afternoon. So overall low risk expected with a few locations
with a more moderate risk.

Tides coastal flooding
Several tidal sites along the altantic coast touched minor
flooding thresholds with the high tide that occurred earlier
this evening. With the flow becoming more off shore tomorrow,
expect water levels with the next two high tide cycles to be
below minor flooding thresholds. However, we will be watching
the tidal departures closely for the Monday evening high tide,
as winds will once again shift to more southerly, and
astronomical tides should be relatively high thanks to the new
moon on Monday. At this point minor flooding is possible, though
some guidance continues to show water levels falling short of
minor flooding thresholds.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Johnson robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Mps
aviation... Johnson robertson mps
marine... Robertson mps
tides coastal flooding... Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi82 min WSW 9.7 G 9.7 78°F 77°F3 ft1012 hPa (+1.8)71°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi42 min SW 8 G 8.9 78°F 79°F1011.6 hPa
44091 30 mi42 min 77°F3 ft
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi42 min WSW 8.9 G 11 1012.5 hPa
MHRN6 33 mi42 min SW 7 G 8.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi42 min 79°F 76°F1011.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi42 min 80°F 75°F1011.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi42 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 76°F 77°F1013.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi82 min WSW 9.7 G 12 77°F 76°F3 ft1012.5 hPa (+1.7)75°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi42 min W 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 74°F1011.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi42 min WNW 4.1 G 7 77°F 77°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi16 minSW 510.00 miFair73°F66°F81%1013.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ20 mi72 minN 0 miFair72°F69°F91%1012.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ24 mi16 minWSW 410.00 miFair73°F68°F84%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW9SW5SW7W9W7NW5W4NW5N7CalmW8SW7W9W10W9SW9W7SW4CalmSW5SW5S4SW5
1 day ago--S4S3S4S5S5S7S6
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2 days agoW3W3W4CalmNE4NE3N3NE5NE8NE7NE9E9E7E9E9SE8E9SE8SE7SE4SE4SE5SE4S4

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:33 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:38 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:58 PM EDT     5.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.20.51.734.24.954.43.21.90.8-0.1-0.20.51.83.24.65.55.95.44.331.6

Tide / Current Tables for Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Route 35 bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:06 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:30 PM EDT     5.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.300.923.144.44.23.32.21.10.2-0.2012.23.44.4554.33.21.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.