Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:06 AM   Moonset 1:30 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1047 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 1047 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity tonight, pushing east on Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into Friday night. The high moves off the coast Saturday as a cold front approaches. This front moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region.

FXUS61 KPHI 020436 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1236 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front lifts through tonight. A cold front looks to cross through Thursday before more weak surface high pressure builds in. Cold front well to our west approaches slowly for Friday and the weekend while decaying, keeping things unsettled this weekend and even into Monday. Yet another cold front may come through around the time frame of Monday/Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High pressure off to the east will result in prevailing onshore flow at the surface overnight within the marine layer, however a frontal boundary will return northward as a warm front by Thursday morning. While dry and benign conditions are expected much of the night, we should see some marine stratus and perhaps some areas of fog beginning to advect inland across the coastal plain and toward the I-95 corridor and even as far north and west as the Lehigh Valley, especially after midnight or so. No dense fog is currently anticipated though.

Temperatures will drop into the 50s tonight across much of the region, coolest across New Jersey where the marine layer impinging inland overnight will have the greatest impact.

With winds shifting offshore on Thursday and increasing to near 10-20 mph, any morning stratus and fog will quickly scatter out by 9 to 10 AM thanks to drier continental air advecting in from the west. Ridging will begin building aloft as the day progresses. The adiabatic compression, downsloping offshore winds, ample sunshine, and 850 mb temperatures 12-15C will support widespread high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, perhaps even touching near 90 degrees within the urban corridor and interior Delmarva locations. Fortunately, dewpoints will mix out into the 40s and 50s into the afternoon, so the Heat Index won't be much of a factor. Apparent temperatures will be near actual temperatures, plus the breeze will feel quite refreshing given the dryness of the air.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure and mostly dry conditions prevail through Friday.
Expect low temperatures in the 50s once again Thursday night with potential for more stratus or fog development within the marine layer. Shortwave energy could linger overnight Thursday so an isolated shower or two could develop. Otherwise, precipitation doesn't arrive until late Friday night to early Saturday morning as another front approaches. Temperatures max out in the 60s to low 70s on Friday, coolest near the coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unsettled conditions are expected for the bulk of the extended period. Weak ridging overhead on Saturday erodes through the weekend as a shortwave trough digs to the north. An associated cold front brings shower activity on Saturday and Sunday, but could fall apart before moving through completely, or stall in the vicinity. High pressure could briefly build in again on Monday before a second stronger cold front sweeps through to clean out the previous boundary.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR initially, but low cigs and some areas of fog are expected to develop with the marine layer as it moves inland.
Guidance has trended more conservative with how far west the marine layer extends, so for now kept it east of PHL/PNE with prevailing restrictions included at ACY/MIV/TTN. Moderate confidence overall, but lower confidence in the exact timing and coverage of any restrictions.

Thursday...Any restrictions quickly scatter out by 14Z, then VFR. West to northwest winds increase to near 10-15 kts, with some gusts near 18-20 kts possible at times. Gusts do not appear to prevail, so I have kept gusts out of the TAFs for now. The winds will diminish a bit toward 00Z and shift more north to northeasterly after 00Z. High confidence overall.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR, though some restrictions possible in stratus/fog at night.

Saturday/Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions probable with increasing chances for showers.

MARINE
While winds are expected to remain below SCA, onshore flow could bring fog, potentially dense near 1 NM or less, to the near shore waters and inland late tonight. There is some uncertainty on if low stratus or fog is more favorable to develop, but will continue to monitor for potential of marine dense fog. At this time, the greatest chance for the lowest visibility in fog will be offshore of New Jersey.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Sunday...SCA flag possible. Seas may build to 5 feet in some locations, wind gusts 20-25 kts possible. Rain showers likely.

FIRE WEATHER
Very warm, dry, and somewhat breezy conditions are forecast for Thursday, May 2nd. Following some morning clouds and fog, relative humidity is forecast to fall to around 25-35% across much of the area along with temperatures surging into the mid to upper 80s under sunny skies. Meanwhile, west to northwest winds are forecast to increase to near 10-15 mph, with some gusts near 20 mph at times. While a wetting rainfall occurred on Tuesday across the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and northern New Jersey, remaining areas of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delmarva have not experienced a wetting rainfall in well over a week now. This is anticipated to result in some concerns for wildfire spread on Thursday. Coordination will be needed with our fire weather partners to determine if any products will be needed to highlight this potential threat.

CLIMATE
Near record breaking high temperatures are forecast on Thursday.
Records for our climate sites are listed below:

Record High Temperatures May 2 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2001 AC Airport (ACY) 91/2018 AC Marina (55N) 85/1913 Georgetown (GED) 90/2018 Mount Pocono (MPO) 83/1913 Philadelphia (PHL) 89/2010 Reading (RDG) 89/1899 Trenton (TTN) 88/2010 & 2018 Wilmington (ILG) 90/1894

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wed -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:13 AM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
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