Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neptune City, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:50PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:52 AM EDT (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 1:41AMMoonset 4:29PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 933 Pm Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight, then becoming N late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 933 Pm Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Weak high pressure will shift offshore tonight and Thursday. A warm front will lift northward towards the area late Thursday and move through most, if not all, of the area on Friday. At the same time, a cold front will approach the mid-atlantic region from the west. This front will track off the coast Friday night into Saturday. Surface high pressure will return for Sunday and persist into Tuesday. The effects of the next cold front are expected to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neptune City , NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170023
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
823 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will shift offshore tonight and Thursday. A warm
front will lift northward towards the area late Thursday and move
through the area Thursday night. At the same time, a cold front
will approach the mid-atlantic region from the west. This front
will track off the coast Friday night into Saturday. Surface
high pressure will return for Sunday and persist into Tuesday.

The affects of the next cold are expected to arrive late Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Showers have stubbornly persisted in portions of talbot and
caroline counties in maryland and in coastal ocean county in new
jersey as the continued small-scale lift provided by associated
sea bay breezes supports their development. Should see a
downward trend in the next couple of hours, but needed to extend
pops a little longer in these areas. Though coverage is quite
isolated, locally heavy downpours may occur, especially in
maryland.

Main question tonight is fog formation. Conditions are not
nearly as favorable for widespread fog versus last night given
that most of the area was dry today and dew points are several
degrees lower. Nevertheless, with light winds and sufficient
residual near-surface moisture in play, patchy fog is likely,
especially in the favored valley rural locations (e.G., kptw,
k22n, kmiv, and kfwn). Will be making some tweaks to the wx
grids to fine-tune timing location of expected fog formation.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s in the poconos and in the
mountains of northwest nj, and otherwise in the low to mid 60s. The
urban heat island effect will keep the philly metro area in the low
70s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Made some adjustments to cloud cover and wind forecast on
Thursday, as latest short-range model simulations are a little
slower in bringing increased clouds to the region through the
day. Will reevaluate the pops wx forecast later this evening,
but first impression is that may need to slow the onset of
precipitation (chances) from what is currently in the forecast.

Previous discussion below remains relevant...

warm front continues to lift north through the region on Thursday,
but may not clear northern zones until late. This results in surface
dewpoints in the low 60s north and west of the fall line, and in the
mid to upper 60s across much of southern nj and the delaware valley.

Extreme southern nj and the DELMARVA should have dewpoints in the
low 70s.

Meanwhile, low pressure currently over the midwest will track to the
north and east, and will move into the upper great lakes by Thursday
afternoon. Upper level ridging builds into western and central ny pa
during the day, and despite several shortwaves spinning out ahead of
the storm system, think most of the precip should hold off until
late in the afternoon. Best chances will be across southwest zones,
where the dewpoints are the highest.

Highs will generally top off in the low to mid 80s, except for the
mid to upper 80s in the DELMARVA and in the upper 70s along the
coasts and in the mountains.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Overview... The period starts with a warm front to our north and
cold front across the ohio valley. The cold front will cross
the region later Friday night into Saturday. By Sunday morning,
the front is expected to be well offshore with high pressure
building in. The center of the high will move across the region
on Monday and then move offshore on Tuesday. A pre-frontal trof
is likely to set up on Wednesday as a cold front moves through
the eastern great lakes.

Temperatures... Normals at kphl will run in the mid 80s and upper 60s
through the period. Friday will run near normal with clouds and
precipitation present. Saturday will run above normal. Sunday and
Monday will run normal. Tuesday and Wednesday will run above normal.

No major extremes are in the forecast.

Precipitation... Pops will increase Thursday night into Friday.

Calendar day Friday appears to be the most unsettled during the
period. We'll run with likely pops most everywhere. Pops will
decrease on Saturday. Small pops will be included for Saturday
night as a mid-level feature tracks through the region. Sunday
and Monday look dry. Pops will be reinserted into the grids
starting Tuesday afternoon.

We are included in general t-storms on the day 3 SPC outlook. Pw's
will be between 2.0 and 2.5 inches Thursday night into Friday. As
such, wpc has our area in a marginal risk for excessive rain.

Winds... Winds are forecast to be mainly 15 mph or less through much
of the period. Southerly winds will increase on Friday ahead of the
cold front. Gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range can't be ruled out on
Friday... Especially as one approaches the coast. Winds could also
gust in and near thunderstorms.

Impacts... Limited through the extended, minus Thursday night through
Friday night. Although the SPC day 3 convective outlook has us in
general, we're lying just outside of marginal. We'll need to keep on
eye on the threat for some strong to severe thunderstorms as well as
isolated high-rate rainfall. Wpc has us in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Localized flooding is possible.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

For the 00z tafs... Main concern is patchy fog tonight. Decided
to add at least a mention of slightly lowered visibilities at
krdg, kabe, and kilg and maintained sub-vfr vsbys at kmiv after
midnight. However, not confident that kacy will see prolonged
lower vsbys based on latest guidance. Fog should quickly
dissipate after 12z. Winds will become southeast or south 5-10
kts tomorrow, with increasing mid and high clouds through the
day.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MainlyVFR. MVFR conditions possible in showers and
thunderstorms. Fog possible late reducing vsbys.

Friday... Fog possible early morning. Additional MVFR conditions
likely in showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday... Some MVFR conditions expected the first half of the day
in isolated showers and thunderstorms. MVFR conditions improving to
vfr during the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions expected.

Marine
Seas remain well below 5 feet this evening, with winds generally
light southerly at this time. Expect winds to veer to northerly
late tonight and tomorrow morning before returning to
southeasterly by afternoon. Speeds should generally remain at or
below 10 kts. Seas should hover around 3 feet through the period
(lower in delaware bay).

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday morning... Sub-sca conditions
expected, although gusts could approach 25 knots on Friday afternoon
and evening. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely late Thursday
through Saturday. Locally higher seas and winds in heavier showers
and stronger thunderstorms.

Sunday into Monday... Sub-sca conditions with no precipitation
expected.

Rip currents...

buoy observations indicate that the longer-period swells
generated by hurricane gert are beginning to diminish (or at
least becoming less frequent). Observations from the beach (via
patrols and webcams) suggest rip currents were prevalent today,
but conditions are expected to improve tonight and tomorrow. As
such, the risk for dangerous rip currents is downgraded to
moderate for tomorrow. The rip current statement will be allowed
to expire at 9 pm this evening.

Swim only in the presence of lifeguards where safety prevails
and if beaches are closed... Respect the decisions of the local
officials. Do we need a reminder? There have been numerous
drowning fatalities this year along the nj coast, and most of
those at unguarded beaches.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for njz014-
024>026.

De... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kruzdlo
near term... Cms mps
short term... Cms mps
long term... Kruzdlo
aviation... Cms kruzdlo
marine... Cms kruzdlo mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi53 min W 4.1 G 6 75°F 78°F1015.7 hPa (+0.4)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi63 min WSW 12 G 12 75°F 76°F2 ft1015.7 hPa (+0.6)71°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi53 min NNW 8 G 9.9 1017 hPa (+0.6)
MHRN6 32 mi53 min NNW 5.1 G 6
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi53 min 75°F 76°F1016.5 hPa (+0.6)
44091 32 mi53 min 76°F3 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi53 min 76°F 75°F1016.1 hPa (+0.5)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi53 min Calm G 1 71°F 75°F1017.3 hPa (+0.7)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi77 min 72°F 77°F1016.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi53 min ENE 1 G 2.9 73°F 74°F1016.3 hPa (+0.7)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi63 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 76°F3 ft1016.6 hPa (+0.6)72°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi57 minW 38.00 miFair69°F66°F93%1017.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair68°F66°F96%1016.5 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair66°F64°F93%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3W3W5W6NW6NW7--NW9NW8NW8W55W7N7
G14
NW7S64S3S4S4SW4SW5W3
1 day agoCalmN3N4N4E4E4NE3E5E4E6SE5SE5SE4E3E5CalmE4E4E5E4SE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5SE5SE65SE7SE6SE5SE5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:57 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.32.43.44.14.343.22.21.40.70.30.41.22.53.74.75.25.14.53.62.51.60.70.2

Tide / Current Tables for Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey
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Brielle
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:01 AM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:30 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:09 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.32.23.13.63.93.62.921.20.60.20.41.22.33.34.14.64.643.22.21.40.60.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.