Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neptune City, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:38PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:55 PM EST (00:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:39AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 603 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft this evening, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers late.
Sat night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 9 ft after midnight. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft late. Mainly in nw swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers early in the morning, then a chance of showers late in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 603 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will weaken and move to our south tonight. An area of low pressure will move into the eastern great lakes later Saturday, then into new england Saturday night into Sunday. A warm front will lift across the area later Saturday, followed by a strong cold front overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. High pressure will build to our south Monday into Tuesday, before a cold front moves across the area Tuesday night. High pressure then builds toward he area later Wednesday into Thursday, before weakening and shifting southward Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neptune City , NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 172353
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
653 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will weaken and move to our south tonight. An
area of low pressure will move into the eastern great lakes
later Saturday, then into new england Saturday night into
Sunday. A warm front will lift across the area later Saturday,
followed by a strong cold front overnight Saturday into early
Sunday morning. High pressure will build to our south Monday
into Tuesday, before a cold front moves across the area Tuesday
night. High pressure then builds toward he area later Wednesday
into Thursday, before weakening and shifting southward Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
High pressure west of the appalachians will build to the south
and east tonight and move off the mid-atlantic coast by daybreak
Saturday. Winds diminish fairly quickly this evening with the
loss of diurnal heating, and become light and variable to calm
tonight.

Cirrus clouds increasing during the overnight hours will
inhibit radiational cooling, but this is a chilly airmass, so it
will be cold anyway tonight. Lows drop into the mid and upper
20s across much of nj and into the lehigh valley, and will be in
the lower 30s across the delmarva. The urban corridor of
trenton to philly will be several degrees warmer, in the low to
mid 30s.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
High pressure off the mid-atlantic coast continues to move
offshore on Saturday. Ahead of low pressure moving through the
great lakes and into the ohio valley on Saturday, a warm front
will lift north through the region during the late morning
hours. Southerly flow develops in the afternoon, and with strong
low level jet passing through the region, expecting 25-30 mph
wind gusts across much of the DELMARVA and southern nj, while
winds will gust to 20 mph across northern nj and southeast pa.

Showers associated with this system will move into the lehigh
valley and northern nj by late morning, but the bulk of the
activity should hold off until the afternoon. Best chances will
be north and west of the i-95 corridor.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Gusty and rainy conditions start the long term period, then
drier weather returns to the forecast.

As we move into Saturday night, a strong cold front is expected
to move across the area. Ahead of this front, gusty southwest
winds will continue through the night with gusts of 25-35 mph
possible. It will likely not be gusty everywhere overnight as
mixing will not be very deep everywhere during the night time
period. However, as any showers move through, and as the cold
front approaches, gusts have a better chance of mixing down. As
the front moves through during the overnight, shower chances
will be increasing across the area, and move from west to east
fairly quickly. There is not much instability forecast, so we do
not have thunder in the forecast at this time. Although it
would not be surprising for an isolated lightning strike or
rumble of thunder with the strength of the short wave. However,
pw values continue to be forecast to reach 1.00-1.25 inches, so
there could be some moderate, to occasionally heavy rainfall at
times.

The cold front is forecast to have moved through the area, and
either be offshore, or just along the coastal areas of new
jersey and delaware by around daybreak Sunday. Showers will come
to an end behind the cold front, with the exception of possible
continued showers in the poconos as some lake effect streamers
may develop. As the strong cold front moves across the area,
winds will continue to be gusty, but become west to northwest as
it shifts eastward. Wind gusts could reach 35-45 mph at times
as the front crosses the area early Sunday, before slowly
diminishing during the day. It is possible that a wind advisory
may be needed in the future as winds increase abruptly early
Sunday morning.

As we go into Sunday night, winds could remain gusty around
25-30 mph and precipitation is expected to have ceased. The only
exception is the possibility for some flurries in the poconos
Sunday evening if any lake effect streamers remain.

High pressure builds to our south Monday into Tuesday. Dry
weather is expected Monday through Tuesday, but winds will
likely remain gusty around 20-25 mph.

A cold front is forecast to move across the area Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. The GFS remains dry, but the ECMWF has the
front ingesting some moisture associated with an area of low
pressure located to our south offshore of the east coast. With
the uncertainty, we introduced a slight chance of showers.

Dry weather is expected to continue through the end of the week
as high pressure is forecast to build to our west then south
with our area on the eastern and northern side.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions expected. Only some high cirrus clouds
around 15000 ft agl expected overnight. Winds will be light and
variable overnight. Model guidance depicts a low level jet
approaching SE pa after 09z. This could result in low level wind
shear at krdg and kabe generally between 09 and 15z. The low
level jet looks to stay far enough west not to affect the other
taf sites. Confidence on flight category is high. Confidence on
llws is moderate.

Saturday... Starting with mostlyVFR conditions. Ceilings will
lower through the day as rain moves in from the southwest. Do
not expect much visibility restriction through the day even with
precipitation. It is likely that MVFR ceilings will reach kabe
and krdg before the end of the day (currently forecasting around
21z). However, for the delaware valley (kphl, kpne, kttn, and
kilg) and coastal (kmiv and kacy) sites, expectVFR conditions
to continue through the day. South winds increase to around 10
kt in the late morning, and then to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20
kt after 18z. Confidence on flight category is moderate.

Confidence on the timing of precipitation or lower flight
category is low.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Conditions lowering to MVFR and ifr overnight,
with periods of showers associated with a cold frontal passage.

Gusty southwest winds 25-30 knots possible. Moderate to high
confidence.

Sunday... Improving to MVFR, thenVFR behind the cold frontal
passage. Gusty west-northwest winds 30-35 knots. Moderate to
high confidence.

Sunday night... GenerallyVFR. Gusty northwest winds 25-30
knots. Moderate to high confidence.

Monday... GenerallyVFR. Gusty west-northwest winds 20-25 knots.

Moderate to high confidence.

Monday night-Tuesday night...VFR. Winds may gust 15-20 knots
during the afternoon Tuesday. Moderate ti high confidence.

Wednesday... Slight chance of showers, though CIGS likely to
remainVFR.

Marine
Tonight... Small craft advisory conditions linger on the new
jersey coastal waters for the next few hours. Otherwise, winds
and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Saturday... SCA conditions develop in the late morning as
southerly flow increases ahead of low pressure moving through
the great lakes and ohio valley. Gales develop on the ocean
waters in the late afternoon. Will upgrade gale watch to gale
warning for the ocean. For de bay, looks as if gales will not
develop during the day, but wind gusts of 25-30 kt will develop
late Saturday morning. Will go ahead and hoist a SCA from late
morning through Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday night-Sunday night... An extended period of gale force
wind gusts are expected starting Saturday afternoon, then
continuing Saturday night through early Sunday night. Conditions
likely to lower to small craft advisory levels overnight.

Monday-Tuesday night... Small craft advisory conditions expected
to continue into Monday and Tuesday. A brief lull may be
possible late Monday into Monday evening.

Wednesday... Conditions likely to fall below advisory levels.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
anz450>453.

Gale warning from 1 pm Saturday to 6 pm est Sunday for
anz450>455.

Gale watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
anz430-431.

Small craft advisory from 9 am to 6 pm est Saturday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Robertson
aviation... Johnson robertson mps
marine... Johnson robertson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi66 min NW 18 G 21 48°F 57°F3 ft1017.6 hPa (+1.3)24°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi66 min NW 18 G 21 48°F 58°F4 ft1018 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi60 minWNW 510.00 miFair41°F18°F39%1019.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi1.9 hrsWNW 410.00 miFair36°F25°F64%1018.7 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair34°F26°F73%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15
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1 day agoE7SE5SE5SE5SE5SE4SE5SE5SE7SE8S6SW4SW8SW6--SW6W7W9
G16
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2 days agoN5N5N4N7N6N5N6--NW5N6N7N6N6N7NE9--NE66E7NE6NE4CalmCalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
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Fri -- 12:26 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:33 AM EST     5.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:58 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:50 PM EST     4.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-00.71.93.24.45.15.24.53.42.21.10.2-0.20.31.22.43.54.34.54.13.22.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey
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Brielle
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:11 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:37 AM EST     4.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:43 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:53 PM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.10.81.82.93.94.54.6431.90.80.1-0.10.41.22.23.13.743.62.71.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.