Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shark River Hills, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:06PM Sunday October 22, 2017 6:36 PM EDT (22:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:46AMMoonset 8:11PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 624 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the afternoon. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers late in the evening. Showers after midnight.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers.
Tue night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 624 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will continue to drift farther out to sea tonight and Monday. A strong cold front is forecast to move through our region Tuesday night. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front and it should pass over or near new england and southeastern canada Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure is anticipated to follow for Friday and Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shark River Hills CDP, NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 222045 cca
afdphi
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service mount holly nj
445 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure located over eastern canada and the western north
atlantic this afternoon will continue to drift farther out to
sea during tonight and Monday. A cold front is forecast to
approach from the west on Tuesday and it should pass through our
region on Tuesday night. Low pressure is expected to develop
along the front and it should pass over or near new england and
southeastern canada on Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure is
anticipated to follow for Friday and Saturday. Another cold
front may approach from the west on Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
High pressure located over new england will continue to move
northeast resulting in southeasterly flow to continue on the
backside of the departing high. This will allow the moisture
transport from the atlantic to continue into the region. Low
clouds and fog formation will be the main highlights overnight
given the increased moisture and light winds. Unlike the last
few nights, radiational cooling is not expected to be as
aggressive so stuck close to met mav guidance with lows in the
50's.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
A strong cold front will continue to advance eastward in wake
of the departing high toward our region. This will allows a
strong southerly to southeasterly moisture flow to continue. Fog
and low clouds will persist throughout a good portion of the
day, likely even slower to burn off than today. However,
sunshine will likely break through at times in the afternoon
tomorrow. Several models are also hinting at a couple of passing
light showers across northern nj and eastern pa, so have
continued with slight and low chances of showers. The majority
of the steadier showers will hold off till the evening. The low
clouds and fog may keep temperatures down a bit from what the
mos guidance has, particularly for northern nj and pa. Still,
highs should reach the mid 70's in DELMARVA and 60's to low 70's
in the lehigh valley, poconos and northern nj.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
A deepening mid level long wave trough will be in the process
of settling over the eastern half of the country on Monday night
and Tuesday. A negative tilt short wave is forecast to lift
northeastward on the front side of the trough and its axis
should pass over our region early on Tuesday.

A slow moving cold front is expected to extend from the eastern
great lakes to the eastern gulf of mexico on Monday evening.

The boundary will move eastward and it should arrive in our
region late on Tuesday.

The slow forward progress of the front will allow it ample time
to tap into gulf moisture and eventually into some atlantic
moisture as it approaches and moves into our region. As a
result, we are anticipating moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

We have increased our rainfall projections mainly into the 1 to
2 inch range with locally higher amounts possible. Due to the
recent dry spell, we are not expecting any flooding issues other
than some poor drainage flooding. Leaf-clogged drains will
enhance the possibility of ponding of water on roadways.

We remain under a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday.

The negative tilt short wave and the approaching cold front
suggest the potential for a qlcs set-up. If a narrow convective
line develops, it should work its way from west to east across our
region from late Monday night into early Tuesday afternoon.

Moderate to heavy rain is anticipated to linger near the coast
into Tuesday evening until the front begins to make its way out
to sea.

The cold front and its associated cloud cover and precipitation
will continue to move slowly eastward on Wednesday as a wave of
low pressure develops along the boundary and moves up into new
england and vicinity. The axis of the mid level long wave trough
is forecast to pass overhead on Thursday and it should finally
kick the surface system well to our east.

Surface high pressure is expected to begin building into our
region from the southwest and south on Thursday before it slides
out over the ocean on Friday and Saturday. We should experience
some clear for late in the week and the early part of the
weekend.

The model guidance differs in handling the timing of our next
cold front. It appears as though it will arrive around Sunday,
so we will indicate a chance of showers at that time.

Daytime temperatures should be near 10 degrees above normal on
Tuesday. Readings are forecast to drop back near normal on
Wednesday. Slightly below normal temperatures are anticipated
for Thursday with readings rebounding to normal or slight above
normal for Friday and the weekend.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr through this evening. Low clouds and stratus are likely to
form and at least form a broken ceiling overnight around the ifr
level at all TAF sites. Visibilities will likely fall as well
with fog formation toward sunrise, with restrictions of ifr or
locally lifr right likely around sunrise. It will likely take
till mid and late morning to see lifting ceilings and
visibilities. The 18z tafs featured general trends for the
overnight hours and the day Monday. Given higher than normal
uncertainty, the timing and exact degree of restrictions will
likely need to be fined-tuned with the upcoming 00z 06z tafs.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night... Conditions lowering to
MVFR and ifr in showers. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to
heavy rain are possible, along with a south wind gusting around
25 or 30 knots.

Wednesday... A chance of morning showers with conditions
improving toVFR.

Wednesday night through Friday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Wave heights look to be in a fairly stable state of around two
feet through tomorrow morning then build in the afternoon but
stay under four feet. Winds will also be under 10 knots into
Monday then increase to around 10 knots during the afternoon.

Some patchy fog and or low clouds are possible overnight and on
Monday which may limit visibilities in a few locations.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... A small craft advisory is in effect
for southerly wind gusts near 30 knots. Localized gale force
gusts are possible on Tuesday. Waves on our ocean waters should
build to 7 to 10 feet.

Tuesday evening... A small craft advisory may need for southerly
wind gusts near 30 knots. Waves on our ocean waters are
forecast to be 7 to 10 feet.

Late Tuesday night through Thursday night... A small craft
advisory may be needed on our ocean waters for wave heights of 5
to 6 feet, even as the wind becomes west to northwest around 10
to 20 knots.

Friday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

Equipment
44091 buoy drifted away from its mooring and has since been
recovered. Its return to service date is still unknown, though
we'll try to have an answer Monday afternoon.

Weather observations at kvay may be incomplete for the
remainder of the day.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Gaines
short term... Gaines
long term... Iovino
aviation... Gaines iovino
marine... Gaines iovino
equipment... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi48 min SSE 9.9 G 13 65°F 64°F1028.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 22 mi46 min S 9.7 G 9.7 65°F 65°F2 ft1027.4 hPa (-0.6)60°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi48 min SSE 8.9 G 11 67°F 1028.4 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi48 min SE 8.9 G 9.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi48 min 68°F 66°F1027.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi48 min 68°F 66°F1028.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi48 min S 7 G 9.9 70°F 62°F1027.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi48 min SSW 8.9 G 11 67°F 66°F1028.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi60 min SSE 4.1 G 8 72°F 65°F1027.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi46 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 65°F2 ft1028.7 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi40 minSE 510.00 miFair65°F48°F56%1028.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ18 mi96 minS 510.00 miFair72°F45°F38%1027.7 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi40 minSSE 310.00 mi62°F51°F67%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S5SW5SW4SW5W5W5W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4--SE5SE9SE9SE7SE5SE5
1 day agoW3W5SW3W5NW5NW3SW3W5NW3W7W3W3W4W5NW3W3CalmCalmCalmSE7--S6SE5SE4
2 days agoSW6SW7SW6SW6SW6SW6SW7SW6SW5SW6W4W3W6NW5W6NW8NW12NW14W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, Shark River, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:14 PM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
31.910.40.20.71.83.14.24.95.14.73.82.71.60.70.20.31.12.23.344.34.2

Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:38 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:56 AM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:18 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.71.70.80.30.20.71.82.93.84.44.74.33.42.31.30.50.10.31.12.133.643.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.