Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shark River Hills, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:15 AM EDT (15:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:47AMMoonset 12:27PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 921 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers until early morning.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 921 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will continue to move away from the area this morning. A cold front attached to low pressure across canada will move through the region later today. High pressure will settle across the area Monday then another disturbance will be across the area Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected for the middle and end of the upcoming week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shark River Hills CDP, NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 261358
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
958 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will continue to move away from the area this morning.

A cold front attached to low pressure across canada will move
through the region later today. High pressure will settle across the
area Monday then another disturbance will be across the area
Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected for the middle and end of
the upcoming week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
For the 930 am update: made some changes to pops based on
current satellite and radar trends. A line of storms continues
to progress east ahead of the cold front in eastern oh western
pa. Further, we are seeing convection initiate over western
md northern wv. This second area of convection may be
orographically enhanced. None the less, high resolution models
are not depicting the morning convection well.

Closer to home, the earlier stratus has mostly dissipated.

Consequently, we should be seeing temperatures rise quickly over
the next few hours. Temperature forecast is on track. Still
expecting just about everywhere to get to at least 80 and many
locations (particularly DELMARVA and the i-95 corridor) making a
run at 90.

As depicted in the 12z iad sounding and mentioned by the
previous shift, there is very dry air mostly above 800 mb. This
could have two implications. First, dew points, currently in the
60s will decrease as the mixing layer increases. There is some
question how deep the mixing layer will be, and there will be
some mid level moisture advection. However, assuming the mixing
layer gets to 850 mb, that should yield afternoon dew points in
the upper 50s or lower 60s (using the 12z iad sounding as a
starting point and allowing for additional moisture advection.

The second implication of the dry mid levels is that initially
(until we see significant moisture advection), this could serve
to enhance the cap and limit convective initiation. However,
i"m not sure it will be enough to weaken convection that is
already ongoing.

If the two clusters of storms mentioned above hold together,
they could arrive in our region as early as 18-20z (2-4 pm edt).

Additionally, as the capping erodes in our region we could see
isolated or scattered storms develop in our region.

As for the severe threats (which will continue into the evening
hours). The best convective parameter space (largely a function
of low-lvl moisture) will reside over the southern half of the
area (more or less philadelphia southward), where MLCAPE of
around 1500 j kg will combine with 40 kts or so of westerly
shear to create the potential for an organized cluster of storms
with damaging winds being the biggest threat (but hail is also
possible). Low-lvl shear will be particularly unimpressive (low-
lvl flow in general will be quite weak) so the tornado threat
is negligible.

Of note, some models (particularly the nam-nest) continue to
advertise MLCAPE well in excess of 2000 j kg over much of the
western part of the forecast area, which if realized would
result in a more widespread severe threat. Currently think this
is unlikely to occur as its pre-convective dewpoints seem too
high given westerly flow and mixing of drier air from aloft...

consequently think the hrrr instability will be closer to
reality.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
The severe threat continues through 03 or 04z (11 pm or 12 am
edt) ahead of along the cold front and convectively enhanced
shortwave.

The front will move through this evening with modest drying
(from n-s behind it) this is not a particularly impressive front
from a thermal or kinematic perspective so drying will be
gradual and precipitation will likely continue into the
overnight. Additionally another shortwave is progged to approach
the area after midnight which may spark another round of
showers and even some thunderstorms over DELMARVA far southern
nj late tonight into early Monday morning. That being said think
the severe threat will wane with the loss of surface- based
instability after about 03-04z. Given abundant cloud cover and
high dewpoints, overnight mins will be warm (mid to upper 60s
outside of the far north where upper 50s lower 60s will be
possible)

Long term Monday through Saturday
A rather changeable pattern across the area this upcoming week with
alternating days of (mostly) dry weather and some weak systems which
will bring some sct showers and tstms. Right now, Mon Wed Fri are
probably going to be the days with the lowest pops. Although there
could be some morning showers across DELMARVA early mon. On wed, a
couple showers psbl far N w.

Tue will see low pressure and a front affecting the area, so showers
and some tstms are expected with the greatest pops (likely) across
the NRN areas. The models become somewhat varied by Thu fri, but the
possibility for some showers will be retained with the GFS and ec
showing some rains arriving late thu.

Some much above normal temperatures will arrive during the middle of
the week with upper 80s and low 90s in many areas. Up until then,
above normal readings (4 to 6 degrees above) will be over the area
mon tue. The much above normal will probably break late next week,
with readings back near normal for Fri sat.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions are expected to continue through 18z.

After 18z, there is a chance for tsra across the region. Any
storms will be capable of variable and gusty winds, and possibly
some hail. At this point, have a tempo group to include the
threat with the first potential round of storms, but additional
rounds of storms will be possible continuing into the tonight
period. Winds will generally be from the west around 10 kts with
occasional gusts to 15-20kts.

Tonight... Showers thunderstorms possible in the evening, however
vfr conditions under mid-lvl cloudiness expected to prevail. Winds
shifting more northerly overnight.

Outlook...

mon tue...VFR much of the time. A few showers early Monday and tue.

Wed thu...VFR wed. Sct showers later Thu with lower conditions
psbl.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday night with seas
generally around 3 feet and gusts up to around 15 kts. Thunderstorms
with gusty erratic winds will be possible late this afternoon into
this evening.

Outlook...

generally sub-sca thru the period. There is the possibility for
some SCA gusts later thu, but confid in this is low attm. Sct
showers and tstms Mon morning, Tue and thu.

Rip currents...

the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is low through
this evening. The low risk may continue into Monday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Carr johnson
short term... Carr
long term... O'hara
aviation... Carr johnson o'hara
marine... Carr o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi27 min W 9.9 G 12 69°F 64°F1015.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 22 mi25 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 63°F 59°F4 ft1014.3 hPa62°F
44091 32 mi45 min 60°F3 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi33 min 76°F 64°F1014.3 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi27 min W 7 G 12
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi27 min W 9.9 G 14 75°F 1014 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi27 min 72°F 60°F1014.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi33 min NW 7 G 9.9 77°F 66°F1015.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi39 min W 6 G 12 76°F 66°F1014.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi27 min W 1.9 G 2.9 71°F 59°F1014.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi25 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 59°F4 ft1014.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi79 minW 910.00 miFair76°F64°F69%1015 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ18 mi2.3 hrsWNW 10 miMostly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1014.9 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi79 minWNW 1110.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, Shark River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:49 AM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 02:30 PM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.73.93.52.821.40.90.70.91.422.63.13.53.53.12.41.91.51.31.31.72.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.