Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shark River Hills, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:03PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 7:25 AM EST (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 9:24AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 701 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
.freezing spray advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Light freezing spray until late afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain late.
Wed night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming W around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain in the evening.
Fri..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 701 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Arctic high pressure across the middle atlantic region this morning will move offshore by tonight. Low pressure will move into the great lakes region Wednesday and then down the saint lawrence valley Thursday. Its associated fronts will cross the area tonight and Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday and Saturday. A cold front will cross the area Sunday. NExt week, a coastal system may affect the area later Monday and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shark River Hills CDP, NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221205
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
705 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure across the middle atlantic region this morning
will move offshore by tonight. Low pressure will move into the great
lakes region Wednesday and then down the saint lawrence valley
Thursday. Its associated fronts will cross the area tonight and
Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday and Saturday. A cold
front will cross the area Sunday. Next week, a coastal system may
affect the area later Monday and Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
600 am update: wind chill advisory allowed to expire for carbon
and monroe counties, as winds have diminished in most of the
area. The exception is the ridgetops, where wind chills are
still running around -15 degrees. Winds should diminish quickly
the rest of the morning here as well, and given the areal
coverage is quite small and readings are becoming more marginal,
see no need to extend the advisory for a couple more hours.

Interestingly, a stream of low clouds and even some flurries has
reached mount pocono early this morning, but this will be
short-lived with any precipitation non-measurable. Added some
flurries and increased sky cover here for a couple hours.

Previous discussion...

high pressure of arctic origins is approaching the area early this
morning, and winds are beginning to diminish as the pressure
gradient slackens. The ridge will move over the region today, and
winds will continue to diminish and gradually become more westerly
(or even variable). Skies should be mostly sunny today, although
some increasing high clouds may occur by or during the afternoon as
a jet streak remains overhead and warm advection begins to spread
into the region.

Main forecast challenge is temperatures today, with statistical mos
exhibiting a little spread. Mav is somewhat lower than met ecs in
general, which is rather unusual (at least lately). Given the lack
of mixing and the very cold origins of the high, I am inclined to
side with the colder guidance somewhat. Highs should be warmer today
as midlevel ridging increases and warm advection commences by
afternoon. Current forecast has temperatures mainly in the 20s
across the area, with low 30s near the coast and in central southern
delmarva.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
The surface high will move offshore tonight, with a midlevel ridge
axis moving through the region during the overnight hours. A potent
vort MAX will be be moving through the central plains, with several
smaller perturbations ejecting from the main trough into the ohio
valley and downstream. Warm advection will increase overnight, which
will act to continue the increasing cloudiness and to stunt diurnal
cooling, particularly overnight as the cloud cover begins to
thicken lower and surface winds become predominantly southerly.

However, the temperature forecast is quite tricky tonight, because
winds will be light during the evening, and cloud cover may be too
thin and too high to prevent a sharp nocturnal drop during the
evening. Consider the MOS guidance for millville: 13 from the mav,
17 from the met, and 24 from the ecs. Results will be highly
sensitive to the above-mentioned factors, with locally large errors
probable as meso- to microscale effects combat the larger-scale
evolution. In general, went on the cold side of guidance and
especially so in the susceptible pine barrens and valley locations
northwest of philadelphia. Confidence is rather low, since the
timing of increased cloud cover is quite uncertain. Forecast lows
are generally in the teens outside of the urban corridor and the
immediate coast, with temperatures around 20 or even in the lower
20s in delmarva.

Precipitation associated with the central u.S. Trough and ejecting
perturbations should remain well north and west of the area through
the night.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
On Wednesday, the next storm will be moving into the area. The
recent trends are pointing a slower moving system, so the pops have
been lowered in Wed somewhat. The warming trend will have more time
to take hold, so the threat for significant amounts of sleet or
freezing rain seem to be lessening with time. Still, we do have
marginal temperatures Wed morning across the southern poconos and
adjacent areas S of that. For that reason, we have not eliminated
the chc for some sleet and freezing rain from the grids yet.

Elsewhere, pops steadily increase thru the day with occasional rain
wed afternoon and into thu. Precipitation totals will be 1 to 2
inches across the region.

High pressure will build back across the area late Fri and into
Saturday, so a dry fcst is continued. It will get cold again Fri sat
with readings below normal, but not the arctic chill of the past few
days. Highs Fri Sat in the upper 20s to low 30s across the delaware
valley and some 5 to 10 degrees cooler across the southern poconos
and north nj.

Model agreement begins to become a factor later this weekend with
some indicating a cold front and some showers Sunday and other not.

We have just continued with chc pops for the northern areas for now
and kept slgt chc pops elsewhere. Temperatures will favor snow N w
and rain across the delaware valley and S e.

Next week, the operational models become all over the place with
regards to various systems affecting the region. The 00z cmc was
trending like the 12z ec with a coastal system coming near our
waters next tue, but then the 00z ec came in without this low.

The GFS has a front crossing the area next Tue with a weak wave
forming SW of our area then moving thru Tue night with (probably)
snow. The ec and cmc don't have this at all. So the rather high
amounts of uncertainty will lead me to keep some slgt chc pops
for the Mon Tue periods for now. Temperatures should remain a
few degrees below normal.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with northwest winds around 10 kts becoming light
and variable during the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with increasing mid and high clouds. Winds generally
light but may become predominantly southerly. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

wed thru thu... Lower CIGS and vsbys with rain and fog. Ifr lifr
possible. Gusty winds and llws possible Thu morning.

Thu night... Improving conditions. Few showers psbl. Patchy fog.

Fri thru sat... MostlyVFR expected.

Marine
700 am update: freezing spray advisory allowed to expire for
upper delaware bay but extended for lower delaware bay and the
adjacent atlantic waters of delaware until 10 am based on
surface observations from lewes. Small craft advisory allowed to
expire for delaware bay, as winds have diminished below
criteria. Finally, the low water advisory for upper delaware bay
has expired, as low tide has passed.

500 am update: gales are winding down across delaware bay and
the atlantic waters. The gale warning has been converted to a
small craft advisory through 7 am for delaware bay and through
10 am for the atlantic waters. Winds and seas should
diminish lower below criteria thereafter. Wind direction will
switch fairly quickly this afternoon to a southerly or
southeasterly direction, with speeds increasing tonight. Winds
may approach advisory criteria late tonight, but will hold off
on issuing a small craft advisory until the current products are
dropped and confidence with the onset timing of the next round
of stronger winds increases.

Freezing spray continues at this time on delaware bay and on the
atlantic waters, though the trend has been slowly downward
overnight. Decided to continue the freezing spray advisory through
12z for delaware bay and the delaware atlantic waters and through
15z for the new jersey atlantic waters based on latest observations
and model forecasts.

Low tide has passed for the atlantic coast, and blowout tides
have ended. The low water advisory for lower delaware bay and
the atlantic waters was allowed to expire at 5 am. However, low
tide is still occurring on upper delaware bay and will occur on
the tidal delaware river later this morning. Blowout tides are
expected in these areas, per latest observations from ship john
shoal and delaware city. The low water advisory continues until
7 am for upper delaware bay, and a special weather statement
addressing the threat for the tidal delaware river has been
issued.

The next low tide will occur during the afternoon, but it looks
as if the combination of slackening winds and increased time
from the full moon will prevent a third round of widespread
blowouts. However, some models (e.G., estofs; stevens institute
ensembles) come quite close. We will continue to monitor.

Outlook...

wed thru thu... SCA conditions expected. Rain and fog.

Thu night thru Fri night... SCA expected on the ocean and mostly
sub-sca on delaware bay. Fair.

Sat Sat night... Sub-sca. Fair.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for
anz450>455.

Freezing spray advisory until 10 am est this morning for
anz431-450>455.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... O'hara
aviation... Cms o'hara
marine... Cms o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi56 min NW 24 G 28 16°F 30°F1037.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 22 mi36 min WNW 23 G 35 20°F 43°F5 ft1036.2 hPa13°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi56 min 15°F 35°F1037.1 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi56 min WNW 12 G 19
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi56 min NW 19 G 22 14°F 1037 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi56 min 14°F 37°F1036.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi56 min NNW 8.9 G 11 13°F 32°F1038.1 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi50 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 13°F 33°F1037.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi36 min NW 23 G 27 23°F 42°F6 ft1034.9 hPa (+3.8)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi30 minWNW 13 G 1910.00 miFair13°F1°F61%1036.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ18 mi86 minWNW 5 G 16 miFair0°F0°F%1036.2 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi30 minNW 1410.00 miFair12°F3°F67%1037.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE8SE9S12
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2 days agoN4N4N8E5E6E5SE5E9E7E6SE5E7E9E13
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E10E8NE7N4NE10E8E10

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, Shark River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
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Tue -- 01:57 AM EST     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM EST     5.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:43 PM EST     -1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:46 PM EST     4.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.6-0.9-0.40.82.33.74.75.14.93.92.61.2-0.1-0.9-1.1-0.40.92.23.44.24.43.82.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.