Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shark River Hills, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 4:42PM Monday November 12, 2018 8:03 PM EST (01:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:05PMMoonset 9:51PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 603 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 12 seconds. A chance of rain early this evening, then rain late this evening and overnight.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds. Rain in the morning. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sat..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 603 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure developing over the southeast will continue to move northeast, traversing our area through the overnight. High pressure will slowly build into the region through Wednesday night, before moving off to the northeast. Another area of low pressure will then gather strength over the southeast and move northward along the coast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning in a similar manner to tonight's low. High pressure should build toward our south into the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shark River Hills, NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 122334
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
634 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure developing over the southeast will continue to
move northeast, traversing our area through the overnight. High
pressure will slowly build into the region through Wednesday
night, before moving off to the northeast. Another area of low
pressure will then gather strength over the southeast and move
northward along the coast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning
in a similar manner to tonight's low. High pressure should
build toward our south into the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Light rain starting to move into DELMARVA from the south and
east, and precip will increase tonight as low pressure from the
south lifts north along the coast.

North of the low, and ahead of the cold front, plenty of
moisture and lift will advect across the area as several short
wave vorticity impulses move across the area. Temperatures
across the higher elevations of northeast pennsylvania and
northern new jersey will be cold enough for some snow and or
sleet to occur at the onset of the precipitation. However, as
warm air continues to move northward, all precipitation is
expected to change to rain overnight. Therefore, little
accumulation is expected, generally an inch or less.

Overall QPF amounts are forecast to be between 0.75-1.00
inches, with the highest across southern new jersey, delaware,
and maryland where there is the potential for up to 1.5-2.0
inches. Rainfall rates are not expected to be significant,
however, there is the possibility if rates reach up to 1 inch
per hour, some urbanized poor drainage flooding may occur. There
is a limited amount instability forecast, and is confined to
southern maryland, southern delaware, and southern new jersey,
so we will have a slight chance of thunderstorms there.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The coastal low will continue to quickly lift northward along
the delaware and new jersey coasts through the morning hours.

There will be ongoing showers across the are for a couple of
hours around and shortly after daybreak Tuesday. However, as the
low lifts northeastward, the showers will taper off from west
to east. The exception to this is that another band of showers
may develop during the afternoon for southern maryland, southern
delaware, and southeastern new jersey as a couple of more short
waves move across the area.

With the low moving to our northeast through the day, the
pressure gradient will tighten across the area, leading to gusty
winds. Northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph are expected across
the area.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Summary: Wednesday will feature dry weather and mostly clear
skies. Another low pressure system will move up from the south
late Thursday into Friday bringing more extensive precipitation
to the region. Confidence for wintery weather has increased
somewhat with this forecast package. Isolated rain snow showers
or sprinkles flurries will be possible over the weekend,
especially toward the northern portion of the area. Otherwise, a
cold and dry weekend looks to be in order with high pressure
centered across the southeast. High pressure and dry weather
persists into early next week.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Upper trough moves out
as westerly flow sets up across the region. A few lingering
showers may stick around across far south nj and southern
delmarva through the early evening hours. High pressure will
build in from the west with dry and mostly clear conditions
expected through Wednesday night. Wednesday will be seasonably
cold with high temperatures struggling to climb above 40
degrees. Lows Wednesday night will once again fall into the 20s
for most locations across the area.

Thursday through Friday... A cut-off upper low positioned across
the ARKLATEX region Wednesday will get picked up and ejected
northeastward across the ohio valley by another upper trough
digging southward through Friday. This will result in another
area of low pressure developing and moving up the east coast
late Thursday through Friday. With the colder air that will be
in place in the wake of the early week system and high pressure
anchored initially across new england, wintery mix (rain mixing
with snow sleet) is looking more likely at the onset of this
event, particularly our northern-most zones and higher
elevations where precip may remain a mix of rain snow or all
snow through the majority of the event. The onset mixed precip
type may easily be experienced across even our southern most
zones. The latest ECMWF and GFS have trended faster with precip
onset time (as early as daybreak Thursday), meaning less time to
warmup with daytime heating or advection before precip
overrunning begins. The faster the system is, the more
widespread mixed precip will result. This will also depend on
the exact track of the low, which is still uncertain. All that
said, temperatures are expected to be too warm in most area for
any significant or measurable accumulations. The poconos may
have some light accumulations, however, if temps remain cold
enough. Even after precip begins, temperatures will warm
throughout the day into the upper 30s and 40s except the poconos
where temps are more likely to remain closer to the freezing
mark. Expecting about 1-1.5 inches of rainfall with this system
as of now. Rain will come to an end by late Friday morning with
a few showers lingering through the afternoon hours.

Friday night through Monday... High pressure will begin building
from the west through the weekend with northwesterly flow
ushering in cooler air. A few light rain snow showers or
sprinkles flurries will be possible late Saturday and Saturday
night. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal into
early next week with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and
30s for most. Sunday and Monday look quiet under mostly clear
skies.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR this evening, lowering to MVFR then ifr later
this evening and overnight as rain increases across the area.

South-southeast winds around 5 knots, become light and variable
or shift toward the east-northeast around 5 knots later this
evening and overnight.

Tuesday... Light rain begins to taper off during the morning
hours. Conditions will improve from ifr to MVFR as rain tapers
off, and may return toVFR during the afternoon. Wind shift to
the north-northwest during the morning and into the afternoon,
and increase to 10-15 knots, with gusts 20-25 knots possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night... GenerallyVFR with high clouds
moving into the area. High confidence. Winds 10-15 knots with
gusts to 20 knots inland and 25 knots along the coast.

Thursday through Friday...VFR turning MVFR with rain showers
moving into the area from southwest to northeast. Some mixed
precipitation is possible early Thursday, though little to no
accumulation expected. Remaining rain showers move off to the
north Friday afternoon, though some lingering drizzle and
showers will be possible through the evening. Lowest
visibilities over the higher elevation of the poconos and NW nj.

Low confidence. Winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
inland, 25 knots along the coast.

Friday night through Sunday... GenerallyVFR, though some snow
showers with temporary reductions to MVFR possible over the
poconos Saturday and Sunday, though confidence is not
particularly high on the timing of these. Winds 5-10 knots with
gusts possibly reaching 15-20 knots, mostly along the coast.

Marine
Small craft advisory is in effect starting later tonight and
continuing through the day Tuesday. Winds are expected to
increase out of the east to northeast overnight ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. Strong winds will continue
during the day Tuesday as the low lifts to our northeast and
gust 25-30 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday... Lingering SCA conditions possible with SCA ending at 6
am. A few gusts to 30 knots possible through the early afternoon
before tapering off into the evening. Fair weather expected. Seas 3-
6 feet.

Thursday through Friday... Sub-sca conditions initially with wind
gusts picking up and approaching 30 knots over the open waters
Thursday night. Seas building to 6-12 feet into the afternoon
Thursday, lingering into Friday.

Friday night through Sunday... SCA conditions possible Friday night
with gusts 25-30 knots, diminishing to sub-sca over Saturday. Seas 5-
10 feet relaxing to 4-6 feet into the day Saturday, then 2-4 feet
Saturday night.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Davis
near term... Robertson mps
short term... Robertson
long term... Davis staarmann
aviation... Davis robertson mps
marine... Davis robertson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi34 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 52°F1028.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 22 mi24 min SSE 7.8 G 12 51°F 54°F1027.6 hPa40°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi34 min SE 7 G 8 48°F 1028 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi34 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi34 min 46°F 53°F1027.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi34 min 47°F 53°F1027.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi34 min Calm G 1 43°F 45°F1028.1 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi34 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 54°F1028.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi88 min E 1 G 1.9 44°F 46°F1027.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi74 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 52°F 56°F1 ft1028.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair44°F36°F73%1028.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ18 mi2.1 hrsN 0 miFair43°F37°F80%1027.9 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi68 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F37°F93%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmSW3CalmCalmW3SW5S6S6S5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW7SW6W5W7W8W10W9W7W7W6W4W5W8NW8NW14NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:19 AM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM EST     4.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:03 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:51 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:13 PM EST     3.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.51.610.60.71.42.43.44.14.54.64.13.22.21.30.70.40.71.42.333.53.8

Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey (2)
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Manasquan Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:03 AM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM EST     4.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:47 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:51 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:13 PM EST     3.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.21.40.80.50.81.52.43.23.84.14.23.72.91.91.10.50.40.71.42.22.83.23.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.