Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM   Moonset 12:15 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 210 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Today - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E early this afternoon, then becoming se 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 210 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure returns this afternoon into tonight. Another weak frontal system passes across the area Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into early Saturday. A weak frontal system approaches Saturday and passes through late in the weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 011421 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ Issued by National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1021 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front lifts through tonight. A cold front looks to cross through Thursday before more weak surface high pressure builds in. Cold front well to our west approaches slowly for Friday and the weekend while decaying, keeping things unsettled this weekend and even into Monday. Yet another cold front may come through around the time frame of Monday/Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MORNING UPDATE...
Showers from earlier this morning have fizzled out and dry conditions are expected the remainder of the day. Low clouds and fog have also dissipated and some fair weather cumulus has developed.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
Last of the lingering showers should dissipate within the next few hours, the rest of the day should be dry. The trailing upper level trough will still be crossing our region through the afternoon, but with very limited moisture, do not expect it to result in any additional rain.

In the wake of Tuesday's front, temperatures will generally be a bit cooler today - in the 70s for most of the region. A developing sea breeze by mid day will only help to reinforce this for the coastal plains.

Overnight, as the surface high sits just east of our region, expect more widespread onshore flow to develop. The main implication for this will be either fog or low stratus especially for the coastal plains as the marine layer advects in. At this point, most model soundings show fog more likely than low stratus, but given the complexities of this setup, I don't have very high confidence one way or the other.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Though the region will feel the influence of weak surface high pressure Thursday, a weak frontal system centered to our north is forecast to move southeastwards and offshore of the northeastern CONUS with time. This will likely result in a weak cold front crossing through the region at some point Thursday before more weak surface high pressure builds in behind the front for the Thursday night and Friday time frame. A more defined cold front out to our west is expected to approach the region Friday and Friday night all while slowing down and weakening with time.

Overall, the short term will look to be fairly benign weather wise.
However, while the synoptic evolution is fairly straightforward and certain, the details are not. With the weakness of both the surface low/highs and the upper-level pattern in place, forecaster confidence in timing of the cold front coming through Thursday is not very high. This of course will determine how high temperatures get Thursday. The cold front expected to cross through Thursday could stall just to our south Thursday night into Saturday. Where exactly this front stalls (e.g., over southern Delmarva or south of it) is not certain at this point. Also, shortwave energy could remain in place Thursday and Thursday night.

Most model guidance supports a dry forecast Thursday into Friday night. This makes sense given the weak high pressure in control and the weakness of the cold front expected to cross through Thursday.
However, with lingering shortwave energy Thursday and Thursday night, a stray isolated and pop-up shower should not be ruled out even if most model guidance has no precipitation. During the later half of the Friday night period, have slight chance PoPs beginning to enter the region from the west with the approaching slow and decaying cold front.

Not much else to write home about with this forecast. Temperatures mainly in the 80s for most locations Thursday, much cooler for the Poconos and coastal areas of course. High temperatures Friday cooler than Thursday, likely the mid 60s to low 70s for most locations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The ensembles and deterministic models continue to support an upper-level ridge axis over/just offshore of the eastern CONUS Saturday breaking down and moving eastward with time.
Thereafter, a more zonal pattern takes hold over the region through much of the long term even with another ridge axis developing to our west over the Great Lakes region.

At the surface level, the upper-level pattern corresponds to an occluded cyclone north of the Great Lakes region Saturday slowly continuing to drape a cold front undergoing decent frontolysis eastward toward the region. This cold front only looks to slow down and decay even more with time with it possibly either stalling over the region Sunday into Monday or not crossing through until the Sunday night time frame. Thereafter, guidance suggests another round of surface high pressure will try to build in from the west later Monday or Tuesday, but not before pushing a possible secondary cold front through the region and clearing out whats left of the old cold front if anything.

So what can be expected for the long term? Mainly unsettled conditions. Rain showers will spread eastward from the west Saturday into Sunday will rain showers lasting into the Sunday night and possibly even the Monday time frame. Beyond Monday, there is not much forecaster confidence in the synoptic situation given the upper level pattern. Overall, expect a rainy weekend with things staying unsettled at least until Monday morning. We will have to see how the synoptic situation evolves thereafter.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Morning fog and low stratus should dissipate by 15Z, leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Expect winds to settle out of the NW for a period, but a developing seabreeze should switch winds around to southeasterly at KACY, KMIV and possibly as far west as KILG, KPHL, and KPNE. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Starting VFR, but expect southeasterly onshore flow to result in either fog or low clouds at KACY, KMIV and possibly the 95 corridor TAF sites after 06Z. Winds predominantly southeasterly at 5 kt or less, though direction may be variable, especially at KRDG and KABE.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday/Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions probable with increasing chances for showers.

MARINE
Winds and seas will stay below small craft advisory criteria through tonight. There is potential for near shore fog late Wednesday night.
However, low confidence if the set up will favor fog or low clouds, so will be watching trends closely if a marine dense fog advisory may be needed for tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Sunday...SCA flag possible. Seas may build to 5 feet in some locations, wind gusts 20-25 kts possible. Rain showers likely.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Trenton
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Wed -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:33 AM EDT     1.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:17 AM EDT     8.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:43 PM EDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:47 PM EDT     7.96 feet High Tide
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Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey, Tide feet

Assiscunk Creek
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Wed -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:05 AM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:02 AM EDT     6.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:57 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:55 PM EDT     6.11 feet High Tide
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Assiscunk Creek, Route 130 bridge, New Jersey, Tide feet

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