Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Galena, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:16PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:18 PM EST (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:39PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 419 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow this morning, then snow, rain and sleet this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees and off erie 45 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201811151530;;332270 FZUS51 KCLE 150919 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 419 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-151530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Galena, OH
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location: 40.2, -82.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 152035
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
335 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move through the area tonight, bringing snow
as it moves to the east. An area of high pressure will then
develop over the region for Friday and into the weekend,
providing cooler and drier conditions. Temperatures will remain
cooler than normal through much of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Surface observations are proof that the inversion has totally
mixed out over the iln cwa, as temperatures at the surface are
now solidly above freezing, but rain has already begun to
transition to snow. Most of this snow has been generally light
so far, with radar echoes becoming more scattered over the iln
cwa, but there will be one feature to watch as the evening
progresses. Water vapor satellite shows that the center of the
compact mid-level low is currently located over far southern
indiana. A curved band of snow has developed in a favorable
region for ascent just ahead of this low, which will continue to
develop as it moves ene into the iln forecast area this
evening. Earlier model runs had trended toward cooler boundary
layer conditions, and this expectation continues -- most, if not
all, of this precipitation will fall as snow. Snowfall forecast
amounts have been increased from the previous forecast, with
around an inch in the cincinnati area, lesser amounts to the
north and south, and greater amounts in the eastern half of the
cwa. Where snow may persist the longest, over central ohio, some
amounts approaching two inches appear possible. In addition, if
moisture becomes shallow while there is still lift ahead of the
center of the low, a brief period of freezing drizzle may also
occur. Right now, the freezing drizzle scenario looks like a
lower-probability possibility, given that more of the model
soundings suggest moisture will remain deep enough for ice
crystal introduction. In collaboration with jkl rlx cle and
others, an sps was issued for tonight, mainly to highlight the
potential for a brief period of snow accumulations. With the
recent colder model solutions, it is unsurprising that min temps
also needed to be adjusted slightly downward, now in the upper
20s to around 30.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Though a trough moving across the great lakes on Friday will be
a close call for the iln cwa, it looks like precipitation (light
snow) associated with this feature should remain north of the
forecast area. At most, perhaps some flurries may affect the
northern tier or two of counties. This means that Friday and
Friday night should be dry, as high pressure begins to build
into the southern tier of states. One thing the passing trough
will do is briefly pick up the winds, which will gust to the
20-25 knot range out of the wsw on Friday -- primarily in the
first half of the day. The wind direction in the boundary layer
suggests perhaps a little bit of warm advection on the west side
of the appalachians, but barely getting into the southeastern iln
cwa if at all, leading to another day of well below normal
temperatures -- especially since skies should be cloudy to
mostly cloudy. MAX temps are forecast to range from the upper
30s to lower 40s, with min temps in the upper 20s on Friday
night.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
The extended period begins with a cold front located in the
southern great lakes. The models bring this front into northern
sections Saturday and then work it farther south, while
weakening it. Much of the pcpn is post frontal, which brings on
a slight chance of pcpn into the extreme nwrn counties on
Saturday afternoon. As the front sags south Saturday night into
Sunday, the precipitation chances increase and move southeast
through the forecast area. Right now the best precipitation
chances appear to be Sunday afternoon into Sunday night when
some upper level support swings through. Precipitation type will
be a mix of rain and snow, based mainly on the diurnal cycle.

Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the upper 30s in the
northwest to the upper 40s in southeast.

By Monday, northwest flow aloft develops, and high pressure
begins to build in at the surface. The GFS continues to try and
bring a disturbance down in the northwest flow on Tuesday, but
this is not currently supported by the other models. So, will
keep next week dry. The first part of next week will be on the
cool side with highs Monday from the mid 30s northwest to the
lower 40s in the southeast.

On the back side of the high there will be a gradual warm up,
with highs by Wednesday ranging from 40 northwest to the upper
40s south, and the mid 40s to the lower 50s on thanksgiving day.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Freezing rain has come to an end at the TAF sites, but the rain
that is occurring right now will begin to switch to snow during
the next few hours. This will be accompanied by ifr lifr
ceilings and MVFR ifr visibilities, so there is high confidence
in aviation conditions remaining very poor through at least the
first half of the forecast period. The greatest chance for
accumulating snowfall appears to be at the columbus TAF sites
during the evening.

After a few hours of snow at each TAF site heading into tonight,
dry conditions are expected for the rest of the overnight
hours. Winds will switch to the wsw and will increase to around
10 knots by morning, but during the late morning and early
afternoon, some gusts into the 20-25 knot range will be
possible. Ceilings should stay ifr low-end MVFR through the
entire TAF period, but visibilities are expected to improve to
vfr at some point during the overnight hours -- or Friday
morning at the latest.

Outlook... MVFR ifr ceilings will continue into Friday and Friday
night. MVFR conditions are possible again from Saturday night
through Sunday night.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Hatzos
short term... Hatzos
long term... Sites
aviation... Hatzos


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 85 mi94 min ESE 2.9 35°F 1015 hPa33°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 86 mi19 min SSE 5.1 G 8 35°F 1012.5 hPa (-2.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 94 mi37 min SE 4.1 G 8.9 34°F 41°F1015.1 hPa33°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH10 mi26 minN 02.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist34°F33°F97%1014.6 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH14 mi28 minESE 710.00 miOvercast36°F34°F93%1014.3 hPa
Marysville Union County Airport, OH21 mi44 minN 01.75 miOvercast33°F32°F98%1013.9 hPa
Columbus, Bolton Field Airport, OH23 mi34 minN 04.00 miLight Rain34°F33°F100%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8NE5NE9NE10E10E11NE11NE10E10E6E7E8E12E7E9E13E9E8SE8SE9SE6E5SE6Calm
1 day agoNW10NW8NW7NW10W7NW6W7NW9NW9NW8NW4NW8N5N5N3N3N3NE7N6NE8N7NE7NE7NE8
2 days agoCalmNE4N3NE5NE3NE3N4N5N6N3NW6N9N6N6NW7NW7NW6NW9NW11N13
G18
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G19
NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.