Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:38PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 7:31 PM EST (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:03PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 633 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Sleet early this evening. Rain until early morning. A chance of rain late. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this evening, then 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 633 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure over the mid-atlantic lifts along the coast this evening. It then passes east of new jersey and towards the gulf of maine by Thursday morning before finally departing late in the day. High pressure builds in from the north and west to close out the work week, then moves offshore on Saturday. Low pressure lifts through the region over the weekend, followed by high pressure for the start of the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, NJ
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location: 40.21, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210009
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
709 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure over the mid-atlantic lifts along the coast this
evening. It then passes east of new jersey and towards the gulf
of maine by Thursday morning before finally departing late in
the day. High pressure builds in from the north and west to
close out the work week, then moves offshore on Saturday. Low
pressure lifts through the region over the weekend, followed by
high pressure for the start of the new week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Surface temperatures having a hard time rising above freezing
in northern portions of delmarva, southeast pennsylvania, and
southern new jersey. Mid-level temps are above freezing, and
this is resulting in a bit of a more prolonged period freezing
rain across the southern half of the forecast area.

Will extend the winter storm warning for cecil and kent counties
until 10 pm, and will extend the winter weather advisories for
southern nj and southeast pa until 10 pm.

Precip should change to rain late tonight for all but far
northern zones.

Impacts: the end of the evening commute continues to be
hazardous due to the ice and ice on top of snow. Please allow
extra time to reach your destination, and reduce speed. Roads
that appear wet could be icy.

Guidance also indicating potential for the development of fog
late tonight once rain ends. Winds will be light, and the surge
of drier air will not arrive until Thursday. For now, will carry
patchy fog with vsby 2sm.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
No major changes with the forecast on Thursday, we are
expecting quieter weather. The last of any rain will be ending
Thursday morning along a weak cold front behind the main low in
delmarva. Clouds should be clearing through the day. Breezy
conditions are also possible behind the cold front, with gusts
of 20 to 25 mph possible. Highs will range from the mid 40s over
the southern poconos to the low to mid 50s for areas near and
s E of the i-95 corridor.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
High pressure over the midwest will move into the great lakes
on Friday, then moves into northern new york state Friday night
before moving offshore on Saturday. Meanwhile, h5 trough over
the southern rockies will eject into the southern plains, and
surface low pressure develops out ahead of that trough near the
lower mississippi valley. On Saturday, the primary low lifts
into the great lakes as a secondary low forms over the mid-
atlantic. This new low passes east of new jersey and towards
cape cod Saturday night, then lifts towards the canadian
maritimes on Sunday.

Temperatures will be at or just above normal for the end of the
week and into the start of the weekend, and with no significant
arctic air in place, not expecting much in the way of ptype
issues overall. However, if precip begins early Saturday
morning, there could be a brief period of a wintry mix at the
onset, as temperatures should be below freezing Friday night. By
late Saturday morning, temperatures rise above freezing, and
will remain warm through the precip.

Abundant surface moisture will stream into the northeast and
mid-atlantic, and pwats will be upwards of 1.5". Could have
periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, mainly Saturday
night, with the passage of the low.

Conditions dry out on Sunday afternoon, then a tight westerly
pressure gradient develops with gusty winds possible.

On Monday, surface high pressure builds in from the west, and a
tight northwest pressure gradient develops Monday afternoon
between the high and the departing low. Although it will be dry,
the main story on Monday will be the potential for strong and
damaging winds. Winds at about 500 mb will be around 125 kt, and
a strong LLJ of 55-65 kt with good mixing up to 850 mb. Although
it is a bit far out, this does indicate the potential for
damaging winds Monday afternoon. For now, will carry NW winds
20-30 mph with 30-50 mph gusts, and mention the potential for
gusts as high as 60 mph in the hwo.

High pressure will spread east through the middle of next week.

There is the potential for another storm during the mid-week
period.

After an unseasonably warm Sunday with highs in the 60s,
possibly approaching 70 in parts of delmarva, temperatures
return to at or just below seasonal levels Monday through
wedensday.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Ifr across most terminals most of the time. Mixed
precip across the northern terminals will change to rain later
this evening. Areas of fog expected. Mostly light E SE winds
most of the night. Vsbys somewhat variable in steady rains and
fog. Mostly 1-2sm.

Thursday... Ifr MVFR early then improvement back toVFR as drier
air arrives. Change back toVFR mostly 13 14z for the western
terminals and 15 17z for kacy kmiv.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...VFR. West to northwest
winds 10 kt or less, becoming NE around 5 kt Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday... Sub-vfr conditions in brief wintry
mix Saturday morning, then rain. SE winds less than 10 kt,
becoming west 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts on Sunday.

Monday...VFR. NW winds 20-30 kt with 30-50 kt gusts possible.

Marine
Winds and seas will continue to increase, with small craft
advisory conditions likely on the coastal waters for most if not
all of tonight and Thursday.

On the delaware bay, winds and waves should stay below sca
criteria.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Marginal SCA conditions possible.

Friday through Friday night... Sub-sca conditions expected.

Saturday through Saturday night... Sub-sca conditions. Vsby
restrictions in rain and possible fog.

Sunday... Winds become west 20-30 kt with 35-40 kt gusts.

Monday... Nw winds 25-30 kt with 35-50 kt gusts possible.

Tides coastal flooding
With onshore flow tonight through Thursday morning, water
levels will run a bit high around the high tide Thursday
morning. Winds shift to the west after sunrise, and this should
help mitigate water levels from rising to advisory thresholds.

Tide levels may run from 1 2 foot to as much as 1 foot above
normal during the high tides Thursday morning, and a few spots,
mainly along the atlantic coast, may briefly touch advisory
thresholds. Will not issue a coastal flood advisory at this time
for Thursday morning, as it will not be widespread.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for paz105.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
paz070-071-104-106.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Thursday for paz054-055-
061-062.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for paz060-
101>103.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for njz008>010-
012>015.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
njz016>027.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Thursday for njz001-007.

De... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
dez001.

Md... Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for mdz008-
012.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Thursday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Johnson mps
short term... Johnson
long term... Mps
aviation... Mps o'hara
marine... Johnson mps
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 18 mi38 min ESE 12 G 17 33°F 38°F1027.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi32 min ESE 16 G 19 34°F 40°F1026.4 hPa (-4.0)34°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 31 mi38 min 30°F 38°F1026.3 hPa
MHRN6 31 mi38 min E 8 G 9.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 31 mi38 min E 9.9 G 11 30°F 1027 hPa
44091 32 mi32 min 41°F5 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi38 min 29°F 38°F1026.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi38 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 33°F 38°F1026 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi42 min ESE 19 G 21 35°F 39°F3 ft1026.6 hPa (-4.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi38 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 27°F 32°F1027.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi56 min E 4.1 G 5.1 33°F 38°F1025.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ8 mi36 minESE 114.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist33°F32°F96%1026.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi92 minE 7 miLight Rain0°F0°F%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W3NW4NW6N3NW3NW3CalmNW4N4N3N4N4CalmE9SE5E4E5E10E8SE10E11SE9E11
1 day agoNW16NW13
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NW12NW15NW13NW11NW9--W11NW13
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2 days ago--S3E3SE7E3NE4NE3E6E6NE3NE3W3W4W5W8W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:20 AM EST     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM EST     5.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:58 PM EST     -1.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:07 PM EST     5.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-1-0.90.21.83.54.85.65.74.83.41.80.4-0.8-1.3-0.80.52.23.74.85.34.93.82.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:29 AM EST     -1.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:42 AM EST     5.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:07 PM EST     -1.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:16 PM EST     5.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.9-0.9-01.53.24.65.55.653.620.6-0.7-1.2-0.90.31.93.54.65.2542.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.