Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Asbury Park, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:38PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:09 AM EST (16:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:31PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 913 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Rest of today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the late evening and overnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of rain.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 913 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight. SEveral clipper systems will pass through the region starting Sunday night through Tuesday. A cold front passes through on thanksgiving, and then an arctic airmass builds south through the end of the week. A storm system may impact the area next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asbury Park, NJ
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location: 40.22, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181416
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
916 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight. Several
clipper systems will pass through the region starting Sunday
night through Tuesday. A cold front passes through on
thanksgiving, and then an arctic airmass builds south through
the end of the week. A storm system may impact the area next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
9:30 am update: no major changes to the forecast at this time.

Band of light snow is over western ny and far northwestern pa.

That is expected to slowly make progress towards E central pa
through the day. It may reach the southern poconos by sunset,
but the chance is pretty low.

Previous discussion...

the northern mid-atlantic remains entrenched in west-southwest
midlevel flow and in the right entrance region of a zonal 250-mb
jet streak. Mid and high clouds are streaming eastward in this
flow regime as weak perturbations, per moisture-channel imagery,
progress quickly into and out of the area. To the north, a
strong vort MAX will dig into southeast canada this afternoon
and evening with a southward extension and amplification of
longwave troughing into the great lakes and adjacent areas. A
relatively strong midlevel vort MAX perturbation will approach
the area this afternoon and move through the region tonight.

In the meantime, a surface high across the appalachians early
this morning will move offshore today, which should allow
currently light variable winds to become light southeasterly
this afternoon. Low-level warm advection will commence as the
aforementioned vort MAX approaches the area, and cloud cover
will gradually lower increase through the period. Residual
stratocumulus will also persist and oscillate eastward westward
across the area, especially affecting north west portions of the
cwa.

Main forecast concern today is pops for the far northwest
(poconos and vicinity) with the approach of the vort max. In
general, the strongest ascent remains to our north and west
during the day, but models tend to keep the northwest CWA too
dry for too long with these clipper-like systems. I retained
mentionable pops beginning late this morning in the poconos and
spread them southeastward to adjacent areas of the lehigh valley
and northwest new jersey by evening. Expecting very light qpf,
merely a few hundredths of an inch. Temperatures will be cold
enough for most of the precipitation to be snow in the poconos,
with more of a mixture of rain and snow anticipated farther
southeast (should precipitation even occur in these areas).

Mos guidance did fairly well with maximum temperatures
yesterday but are in somewhat greater disagreement today.

Decided to use a blend of non-bias-corrected statistical
guidance today, as yesterday's forecast verification suffered
from the bias correction undercutting the raw values by a couple
degrees.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As the vort MAX approaches and moves through the region
tonight, light precipitation should increase in coverage to the
northwest of the urban corridor. With warm advection continuing
in advance of the perturbation, my suspicion is that most of the
precipitation will be liquid in the lehigh valley and northwest
new jersey, but temperatures will be marginal enough to keep a
risk of rain and snow for much of the night in these areas.

However, QPF will be light and temperatures marginal (likely
somewhat above freezing), so any accumulation of snow would be
minimal (or more likely, nonexistent). In the poconos, thermal
profiles (and surface temperatures) will be colder, so
accumulations up to an inch or so are possible.

How far the precipitation extends southeast into the CWA is a
question mark, with the NAM a little more aggressive than the
gfs in allowing precipitation to reach the northwest suburbs of
philly. High-resolution guidance is similarly in dispute.

Generally kept pops confined to along northwest of the fall line
with increasing chances for primarily rain as the precipitation
approaches the fall line.

With warm advection and considerable cloudiness, minimum
temperatures are expected to be somewhat warmer than those seen
this morning, especially in southern eastern areas where
conditions were clearer this morning. In general, temperatures
will be near or slightly below freezing north of i-80, in the
mid 30s to around 40 in areas to the south and away from the
coast, and in the middle 40s on the beaches.

Long term Monday through Saturday
A prolonged period of colder than normal temperatures on tap
for much of the new week, with an arctic airmass overspreading
the region for thanksgiving and the end of the week.

The first of 2 clipper systems will pass through the region on
Monday. Models are trending a bit dryer in terms of qpf, so not
expecting much more than a few hundredths of an inch. In terms
of ptype, temperatures will be cold enough to support snow
initially in the southern poconos and northern nj, and perhaps a
rain snow mix down into the lehigh valley. But there should be
rain by afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the upper
30s near 40 for southern poconos, and otherwise in the 40s and
50s elsewhere. This will also keep snow amounts down in northern
zones for the day on Monday.

The second clipper system approaches Monday night and passes
through the region during the day Tuesday. Temperatures should
be a bit colder behind the first system, and QPF will be a bit
higher, so there should be more in the way of snow, especially
for areas north of i-80. The rain snow line seems to set up
along i-78, so areas south of i-78 should get all rain. This may
be adjusted the closer we get to the event, however.

Weak high pressure passes through the region on Wednesday.

Another cold day with highs in the 30s and 40s.

A cold front then approaches Wednesday night and works its way
through the region on thanksgiving. A cold arctic airmass builds
south with 1000-500 mb thicknesses dropping to 510-515 dam in
the southern poconos and to 525-530 dam in delmarva. In
addition, 850 mb temps fall to around -19c in the southern
poconos and northern nj and to around -11c in delmarva. The high
temperature for the day will probably occur just after midnight
Wednesday night, and then temperatures fall thereafter, with
the exception for a brief rebound Thursday afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures will generally range from the teens in the southern
poconos to the 20s for most of the region, and the low 30s for
southern delmarva. At least it will be dry!
a bitterly cold night on tap for Thursday night with lows in
the teens and low 20s.

High pressure moves offshore on Friday, and return flow sets up
to allow for slightly warmer, yet still well below normal,
temperatures. Highs will generally top off in the 30s to low
40s.

From there, a storm system will be gearing up to impact the
region next weekend. Too soon to determine exact impacts, but
thermal profiles so far indicate wintry mix for northern zones
initially, then all rain. But stay tuned.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with partial to considerable cloudiness. Cigs
generally between 5-15 kft, though possibly a little lower than
that at times at rdg abe. Winds generally light and variable.

Moderate confidence.

Tonight... Conditions may deteriorate to sub-vfr north and west
of the philly terminals, and cannot rule out some showers at
rdg abe late. CIGS will approach MVFR at the philly terminals
late but are forecast to remain predominantlyVFR. Winds light
and variable. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...VFR most of the time, but occasional
showers, with snow possible at krdg kabe, could result in MVFR or
lower CIGS vsbys from time to time.

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR. Gusty N winds possible
Thursday.

Marine
Sub-advisory winds seas are expected through the period with
generally fair weather. Winds will switch from northeasterly
this morning to southeasterly this afternoon to southwesterly
tonight, with speeds 5 to 15 kts. Seas will primarily be near or
below 3 feet.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday... Generally sub-sca. Wind gusts to 20 kt
possible Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night through Thursday... SCA conditions possible. Cold
on Thursday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms johnson
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 17 mi40 min E 2.9 G 6 42°F 46°F1030 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi30 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 42°F 51°F1028.9 hPa28°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi40 min Calm G 0 41°F 1029.3 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi40 min NE 2.9 G 5.1
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi40 min 42°F 46°F1028.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi40 min 42°F 50°F1028.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi40 min ESE 4.1 G 6 41°F 41°F1029.4 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi40 min E 2.9 G 5.1 41°F 50°F1029.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi80 min N 3.9 G 5.8 43°F 54°F2 ft1029.4 hPa (+1.1)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi94 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 38°F 40°F1028.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi74 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast40°F28°F65%1029.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ21 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast40°F35°F83%1028.9 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13W9W13W10W11W8W10W7W5----W6W4W5SW4SW5NW3W3W3CalmCalmN3CalmNE4
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
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Sun -- 01:35 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:07 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:21 AM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:23 PM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:37 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.33.84.13.93.32.51.81.20.80.91.52.43.23.84.14.13.52.61.710.40.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:35 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:16 AM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:30 AM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:32 PM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:46 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.43.23.743.93.42.61.91.30.80.81.42.23.13.74.14.13.62.71.810.40.30.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.