Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Asbury Park, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:40PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:24 PM EST (02:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 9:44AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 642 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of rain early in the evening, then rain in the late evening and overnight.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt, decreasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ400 642 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure shifts to off the new england coast during Saturday into Saturday night. Meanwhile, low pressure forms over the central plains and deepens rapidly as it moves northeastward into the great lakes by Sunday morning. This intense low will continue across southeast canada Sunday and Sunday night, with an attendant cold front crossing the mid-atlantic region Sunday afternoon. High pressure will build in behind the low late Monday and Tuesday. A weak low pressure system may affect the area around Wednesday, then high pressure should return by Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asbury Park, NJ
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location: 40.22, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 222343
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
643 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure shifts to off the new england coast during Saturday
into Saturday night. Meanwhile, low pressure forms over the central
plains and deepens rapidly as it moves northeastward into the great
lakes by Sunday morning. This intense low will continue across
southeast canada Sunday and Sunday night, with an attendant cold
front crossing the mid-atlantic region Sunday afternoon. High
pressure will build in behind the low late Monday and Tuesday. A
weak low pressure system may affect the area around Wednesday, then
high pressure should return by Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
For the 630 pm update, no significant changes were needed to the
temperature and wind grids other than to account for the current
conditions. Did lower the dew points some especially across the
northern areas to account for currently some lower values and then
some lowering may occur overnight with a push of some low-level dry
air from the north. A wealth of high level cloudiness continues to
move across the region associated with an upper-level jet, and
therefore increased the cloud cover more especially for the central
and southern areas. Some sprinkles and light rain is south and
southwest of southern delaware and this is anticipated to remain
there.

Otherwise, surface high nearly over the region will shift
northeastward and become centered more over new england by daybreak.

Expect dry conditions and light winds. Cloud cover should be all
high clouds, so should have minimal impact on temperatures
overnight. Lows are expected to be from the mid 20s across the
southern poconos and NW nj up to the mid 30s for coastal locations
and delmarva.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Biggest change in this period was to delay the onset of rain
through the day time hours. Most of the region, with the
exception of DELMARVA and far south jersey, will likely not see
any rain during the day time hours. This slower arrival of rain
makes sense given how slow the surface high will be to shift off
shore away from our region. Highs look to be mostly in the 40s
across the region.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Most of the action in the long term is in the first couple of
days, i.E., Saturday night through Monday. An upper level shortwave
ridge and surface high pressure off the new england coast will
give way to a strong shortwave trof and assocd deepening low
pressure, moving into the great lakes by Sunday morning. Precip
will overspread the area from SW to NE during Saturday evening
and may become moderate to heavy at times overnight.

Temperatures should slowly rise overnight, however they may
hover around freezing for a few evening hours in the poconos.

Thus a bit of freezing is possible, but confidence is not high,
and duration would be rather brief.

Otherwise, the heaviest rain should occur in a 6- to 12-hour
window centered around 12z Sunday. Expected total rainfall is
around an inch and no significant flooding is expected. See the
hydro section below for more info. Rain will end with a sharp
cold front passage Sunday afternoon. Forecast instability is
very limited, but showers with the front could contain some
isolated thunder. High temps Sunday may reach mid 50s to mid
60s, especially after rain ends and winds with the frontal
passage mix the pbl.

Behind the front, the main issue becomes the wind. Continued
deep low pressure over southeast canada with result in a strong
pressure gradient and gusty wnw winds. Winds a few thousand feet
aloft are forecast to reach 50-60kt, but downward mixing of
momentum will be limited as the surface cools after sunset. A
wind advisory could eventually be needed late Sunday into Sunday
night.

A post-frontal trof is forecast to move through around 12z
Monday with an apparent secondary surge of winds. Also daytime
heating will promote mixing and enhanced downward mom xfer. Thus
the strongest winds are expected Monday morning, when gusts
could reach 50kt requiring a high wind warning.

By Tuesday the low finally pulls away into the gulf of st.

Lawrence and high pressure builds in over the mid-atlantic from
the west. This will in fair and relatively calm conditions.

The forecast grids beyond next Tuesday were not changed for this
package. There is considerable uncertainty and variation between
the GFS and the ECMWF regarding temps and possible light precip,
but as of now no significant weather is expected at least
through mid-week.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with high level cloudiness. North-northwest winds
around 5 knots, becoming light and variable.

Saturday...VFR overall, however ceilings will gradually lower as
some light rain starts to arrive from the southwest late in the day.

North of phl, any light rain should hold off until Saturday night.

Light and variable winds, becoming northeast to east around 5 knots,
then southeast 4-7 knots in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Cig vsby restrictions expected in rain and
fog. Winds E SE 3-8 knots. High confidence.

Sunday... Am restrictions in rain and low clouds, but with pm
improvement. W SW winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts
of 30 to 35 knots by late day continuing into the evening.

Moderate confidence.

Monday...VFR but with strong W NW winds expected at 20-25
potentially gusting 40 to 50 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR with NW winds 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR but with occasional reduced CIGS vsbys
possible in scattered rain or snow showers. Moderate confidence.

Marine
Winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft
advisory conditions tonight and Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night thru Sunday... Winds seas increasing with sca
conditions possible by late Saturday night into early Sunday and
gale conditions possible by late day Sunday.

Sunday night thru Monday night... W NW gales expected. Storm
force winds possible Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Winds seas diminish to below sca
levels on Tuesday and remain so on Wednesday.

Hydrology
There are a couple changes to note with the 12z GFS nam
solutions. One, the onset of the precipitation is slower. Two,
qpf has come up a little bit. So other than the delmarva, the
rains may now hold off until Saturday evening for much of the
forecast area. The majority of the rain will fall Saturday
evening through midday Sunday. The marfc is using between 1.00
to 1.50 inches of rain to drive their hydrologic models today.

Before discussing stream river response, I wanted to mention that
much of the snow we received a couple days ago has melted. Other
than far NW nj and the southern poconos, there isn't much left on
the ground. It doesn't even look like it snowed here in burlington
county. This will help as much of the melted snow is moving through
the river systems now vs. This weekend as it's raining. The only
real swe to mention is up across carbon and monroe counties where up
to 0.25" remains. Elsewhere, the swe is pretty much hydrologically
insignificant.

Using the 1.00 to 1.50 of qpf, we are seeing responses at our
forecast points. No flooding is currently forecast, but models do
put some crests near bankful. Over the weekend, keep an eye these
forecast points... The north branch rancocas at pemberton, the
millstone river at blackwells mills, the passaic river at millington
and pine brook, and the rockaway river at boonton. Outside of the
passaic river, flooding potential is low on our other mainstem
rivers.

So as the event unfolds Saturday night, look for minor flooding
across areas of poor drainage and in low-lying areas. Some smaller
creeks that have been prone to high water the last six months will
be prone once again this weekend. This water will runoff make it
into the above mentioned larger creeks and streams on Saturday
night. Rises can be expected late Saturday night, Sunday, Sunday
night, and maybe into Monday. If flooding occurs at any of our
forecast points, it appears the flooding wouldn't initiate until
Sunday night.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Amc gorse
near term... Gorse johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Amc fitzsimmons
aviation... Amc gorse
marine... Amc johnson
hydrology... Kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 17 mi55 min N 6 G 8.9 39°F 39°F1032.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi35 min N 5.8 G 7.8 41°F 40°F1 ft1030.7 hPa32°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi55 min 39°F 39°F1031 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi55 min NNW 8.9 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi55 min NNW 8 G 11 40°F 1031.3 hPa
44091 33 mi55 min 42°F2 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi55 min 39°F 38°F1030.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi55 min N 4.1 G 5.1 41°F 39°F1031.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi55 min NNE 9.9 G 12 38°F 34°F1031.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi35 min N 3.9 G 5.8 40°F 39°F2 ft1030.5 hPa (+1.7)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi49 min N 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 38°F1030.5 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi29 minN 410.00 miFair37°F24°F59%1031.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ21 mi85 minW 3 miFair0°F0°F%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4W4W4W6NW8NW7NW7NW9NW5NW5NW7N12W13
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2 days agoNW4NW6N3NW3NW3CalmNW4N4N3N4N4CalmE9SE5E4E5E10E8SE10E11SE9E11E9E9

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
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Fri -- 03:02 AM EST     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:16 AM EST     5.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:30 PM EST     -1.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:51 PM EST     5.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.10.7-0.5-1-0.50.72.33.74.85.35.14.12.71.2-0.1-0.9-0.9-01.42.94.155.24.7

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Fri -- 03:11 AM EST     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:25 AM EST     5.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:39 PM EST     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:00 PM EST     5.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.40.9-0.3-0.9-0.70.523.54.65.25.14.32.91.40.1-0.8-0.9-0.21.12.63.94.85.24.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.