Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Timber Hills, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:51PM Saturday February 23, 2019 4:18 PM EST (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:47PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 339 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect Sunday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening...
Rest of this afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt late. Waves 1 ft...building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 339 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach the middle mississippi river valley tonight, strengthening as it moves northeastward across the great lakes into canada through Sunday. High pressure will build from the northern great plains toward the great lakes and eventually into the northeast through the first half of next week. Gale conditions are likely overnight Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Timber Hills, PA
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location: 40.24, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 232024
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
324 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A complex frontal system will move into the forecast area tonight
and move through the region Sunday. Very windy conditions will
will develop in the wake of the cold front Sunday afternoon,
and will continue into Monday. Colder and mainly dry conditions
will prevail for much of the upcoming work week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
The first of the spotty light rain is streaking NE over the area
as of early afternoon. This spotty mainly light precip will
continue into the overnight, before becoming steadier and
heavier after midnight.

Temperatures over the higher elevations are still hanging tough
a degree or two either side of freezing, bringing about reports
of some light icing at johnstown and somerset airports. The
href shows the ridges having this light freezing rain drizzle
right into the evening hours so we will keep the advisory
running through 7pm. It may need to be extended, that will have
to be monitored. Ice amounts will be light, but any ice can
cause travel problems.

Qpf through 00z will vary from a few hundredths of an inch
across the NE half of the cwa, to around an one tenth of an inch
in the southwest zones.

Models agree in ramping the precip up after midnight as the
occlusion enters western pa. Guidance shows a pretty solid cold
air damming scenario overnight, so while temperatures will
remain steady or even rise slowly, it will not mix out quickly
and will lead to a chilly rain.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
The occlusion cold front will hop across the CWA during the
morning through mid afternoon. Temperatures will actually spike
up once the front mixes out the cold air damming wedge, so
temperatures will begin rising early in the day and continue
through about mid afternoon when the cold air begins to make a
return once again.

Models do erode stability somewhat, indicating the potential for
an elevated thunderstorm as the front enters the area.

The big thing for Sunday will be the potential for strong
damaging wind gusts to develop behind the cold front. Winds
aloft will be well aligned up through at least 500mb where
progged speeds exceed 100kt by mid to late morning. I'd like to
see a better isallobaric pressure couplet entering the region,
but the cold advection should be enough to bring about some deep
mixing and allow us to tap the strong winds aloft for some
warning criteria wind gusts. The ridges will be the most likely
areas to really blow hard.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Deep low pressure lifting north of the great lakes area late
Sunday will likely reset the large scale pattern.

Thus given the the above feature, the airmass to the north and
west, and latest guidance, did lower temperatures a few degrees
for some periods Sunday night into Friday. These changes also
fit in better with others.

Did look at taking rain and snow showers out of the fcst for
Friday, but 12z ec now has something, more in line with the
gfs. Thus left mention in the fcst of some rain and snow.

I did cut back some on the rain and snow showers for wed.

Given northwest flow, models show much of the snow showers
just falling apart as they move into central pa.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
LingeringVFR will continue to trend to MVFR ifr as the
afternoon progresses and the rain drizzle keeps spreading
north. Pockets of freezing rain or drizzle will be possible over
the higher elevation terminals in the laurels through at least
early evening.

A period of steadier moderate rain is expected for the second
half of the overnight into early Sunday morning out ahead of an
occluded front that will be moving into and eventually through
the flying area. Llws is likely late tonight into Sunday
morning before strong post-frontal wind gusts kick in by Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook...

sun... Scattered rain showers early, then strong FROPA windshift.

Turning very windy with sfc gusts to 50kt from ~260 degrees.

Crosswind impacts and moderate to severe turbulence possible
during takeoff and fap. MVFR ifr conditions in snow showers
likely western 1 3 into Sunday night.

Mon... MVFR -shsn western 1 3 trendingVFR. Windy with gusts to
50kt from ~290 degrees in the morning, then gradually subsiding
winds west to east into Monday evening. Crosswind impacts and
moderate to severe turbulence possible during takeoff and fap.

Tue... No sig wx.

Wed...VFR MVFR with chance of light rain snow showers.

Thu... No sig wx.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
High wind warning from 1 pm Sunday to 1 pm est Monday for
paz004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for paz018-
024-025-033-034.

Synopsis... La corte martin
near term... La corte
short term... La corte
long term... Martin
aviation... La corte


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 62 mi31 min E 7 G 8.9 39°F 39°F1027.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 65 mi37 min 41°F 39°F1027.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 67 mi37 min E 5.1 G 8 39°F 39°F1026.2 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA14 mi23 minE 610.00 miOvercast36°F28°F72%1026.9 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA14 mi26 minE 69.00 miOvercast40°F30°F68%1026.6 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA14 mi23 minE 76.00 miLight Rain38°F30°F73%1026.5 hPa
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA18 mi23 minESE 63.00 miLight Rain37°F28°F73%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW6W6N8NW7N4NW4CalmNW4CalmCalmNE3E3NE3NE5NE5E3E3E4E6E4E4E83
1 day agoW6W4W5NW4W6W5W5NW6NW8NW8W8W7NW7NW7NW7NW7NW6NW4NW6NW4NW4W5W7NW7
2 days agoSE13SE10SE8E7E6SE8E6E5E3E7E7N6E4CalmCalmW4W3NW5W6W6W6W5W7W9

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:11 AM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:36 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:31 PM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:09 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.22.11.81.30.80.3-0.1-0.4-0.40.10.81.62.22.221.510.50.1-0.2-0.4-0.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:38 PM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:41 PM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.81.51.10.60.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.20.81.41.81.81.61.20.80.3-0-0.3-0.3-0.10.41

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.