Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 11:36 PM   Moonset 7:22 AM

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PZZ410 1057 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 27 2024
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Coastal waters from cape mendocino to pt. Arena ca out 10 nm - . Coastal waters from pt. St. George to cape mendocino ca out 10 nm - . Humboldt bay - . Humboldt bay bar - . Waters from cape mendocino to pt. Arena ca from 10 to 60 nm - . Waters from pt. St. George to cape mendocino ca from 10 to 60 nm - .
at 1056 pm pdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 12 nm northwest of cape mendocino to 37 nm southwest of eureka, moving northeast at 25 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
water spouts are possible along with stronger Thunderstorms - .locally higher waves - .and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots - .locally higher waves - .and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4082 12409 4080 12413 4081 12416 4080 12418 4075 12419 4072 12422 4070 12421 4069 12423 4071 12427 4061 12433 4044 12441 4039 12437 4023 12480 4061 12466 4087 12416 4076 12423 4086 12415 4085 12412 4086 12410

PZZ400 258 Pm Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for northern california waters - Fresh south winds ahead of an approaching cold front will shift to the northwest by late tonight behind the passing cold front with gentle to moderate northwest winds persisting through Sunday, before increasing to moderate to strong breezes Sunday night into Monday. A new swell is building in at 3-4 feet around 15 seconds. Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected Sunday with steep wave and gusty wind potential for southern waters late Sunday night into late Monday night.

FXUS66 KEKA 272153 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 253 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Light rain or drizzle will be possible for mostly coastal areas of Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties tonight through Monday. Otherwise, dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures are expected into early next week. Offshore flow around mid week will result in a warming and drying trend for the interior mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION
Weakening frontal system offshore has been spreading thick mid level clouds across the northern portion of the area today. Radar has been showing 20-25 dBZ returns just offshore with stations in SW Oregon reporting light rain. Amounts will not be very much today, a trace to few hundredths based on the HRRR mean. A northwesterly push of shallow moist air later tonight behind the warm front may result in slightly higher amounts of light rain for coastal Del Norte and coastal Humboldt as well as the west facing slopes of the interior where HRRR indicates a 60-80% chance for a tenth or more in 6 hours. Granted the high resolution models may be overcooked with the precip generation and the NBM 50th/75th percentiles may prove to be superior with no measurable rain except near the ORCA border. These amounts are not forecast to be significant by any means, but even light amounts will have impacts on outdoor activities and projects.

The NW influx of low level moist air will continue on Sunday and light drizzle for mostly coastal areas of Del Norte and Humboldt during will be possible (10-20% chance). Another front or trough in the westerlies may generate another bout of light rain or drizzle early Monday morning.

Forecast uncertainty increases Monday night and Tuesday regarding light precip with global models trending drier as another shortwave trough progresses into the PAC NW. Surface ridge and northerlies will likely strengthen after trough passage and dry weather will most likely prevail except for perhaps a few showers near the ORCA border..

Overnight/early morning temperatures are forecast to remain below late April normals with nightly occurrences of mid-upper 30's at the typical colder valleys that do not cloud up during the night, mostly Trinity County. The coldest morning looks to be Tuesday (based on the NBM) when probabilities for subfreezing temperatures are highest (over 70% in some of the coldest valleys). It is 3 days out and too early to issue a freeze watch. For we posted a weather story graphic and social media post to call attention to this potential for freezing valleys temperatures early Tuesday in Trinity County. The upshot this time of year is solar insolation will yield mild afternoon temperatures; upper 60s to lower 70s.

Northerly winds will strengthen Tue night into Wed, followed by robust offshore or E-NE flow as an inverted surface trough develops along or offshore the coast. Expect temperatures to cool down in the valleys under a drier air mass after winds decouple.
Upper elevations will warm in response to the offshore winds and large scale subsidence (adiabatic warming). Daytime highs will warm above normal mid to late week. Probabilities for >80F are highest for Mendocino and southern Lake (40-60%). Mid 80's are in the realm of possibilities, 40% or less with the current set of NBM ensemble members. Chance for 90F or more is no more than 10% and highly unlikely based on the latest NBM set.

There are still subtle variations and differences between the ensemble systems and that is why the forecast still has a slight chance (20%) for rain Wed-Thu north of Cape Mendo. About 50% of 500mb cluster members by day 7 (Saturday May 4th) indicate yet another trough dropping down from the NW for the start of a cooling trend and perhaps more rain. The overall "cool" pattern with below normal temperatures so far has been consistent. DB

AVIATION
The biggest problem will be timing of potential MVFR ceilings as they lower tonight with an approaching cold front. HRRR indicates a clear lowering for the coastal terminals today, fairly consistent and confident of some light rain/drizzle for at least a few hours (20Z to 03Z, from HRRR ensembles) this afternoon and evening. Ensembles suggest a 50-70% chance of MVFR ceilings this evening through roughly 15-18Z Sunday. MVFR visibility is less certain, in the 20-30% range. Ensembles also indicate an overall improvement to flight conditions after 18Z Sunday. The main problem at KUKI will be wind gusts from the north northwest to near 20 to 25 KTS perhaps, peaking near 00Z Sunday this late afternoon, then decreasing in speed as mean ensemble solutions would indicate. MH

MARINE
Observations indicate we are probably looking at the last vestiges of the small craft advisory continuing through 6PM PDT with waves at about 6-7 feet in height and 8 seconds and continuing to decrease. Gusts to 21 KTS at the Point Arena ob trending down as well.

Currently dealing with 3 main wave groups, all from the north northwest. The two shorter period groups with periods near 4 seconds and 9 seconds get partially combined in the forecast. The longest period of around 14 seconds is the shortest height at about 3 feet.
The other groups consisting of heights of 5 to 7 feet. These groups eventually converge upon 2 groups by Sunday, with steep waves associated with the waves forecast to have heights near 6 feet and period of 6 seconds for the southern waters by late Sunday into Monday. This would be enough for another small craft advisory, along with advisory level winds kicking in shortly afterwards behind a cold front (especially fanning out south of Cape Mendocino), giving us potential wind and wave conditions for small craft from late Sunday night into late Monday night for all of our southern waters.
For now I will hold off on an advisory to avoid confusion from the current advisory ending in a few hours. If the forecast persists, we will likely have to hoist another small craft advisory for the southern waters again. MH



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455- 475.

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Cape Mendocino
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Sat -- 01:03 AM PDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:31 AM PDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM PDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM PDT     3.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM PDT     Sunset
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Cape Mendocino, California, Tide feet

Punta Gorda
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Sat -- 01:34 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:24 AM PDT     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:11 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:17 PM PDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:00 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:02 PM PDT     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:09 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:32 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:48 PM PDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Punta Gorda, California Current, knots

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