Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deal, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:19PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:13 PM EDT (17:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:34AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1241 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers early in the evening. Patchy drizzle after midnight. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less until early morning.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Patchy drizzle early in the morning. Areas of fog early in the morning, then patchy fog late in the morning. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1241 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure located off the middle atlantic coast will move farther out to sea this afternoon. Another weak low is expected to follow along a trailing frontal boundary and it should pass off the middle atlantic coast on Tuesday night. A cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest on Wednesday and it should pass through our region on Wednesday night. Another cold front is anticipated to arrive on Friday night or Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal , NJ
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location: 40.25, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 291427
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1027 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure located off the middle atlantic coast early this
morning will move farther out to sea today. Another weak low is
expected to follow along a trailing frontal boundary and it
should pass off the middle atlantic coast on Tuesday night. A
cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest on
Wednesday and it should pass through our region on Wednesday
night. Another cold front is anticipated to arrive on Friday
night or Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
An area of low pressure located offshore of the mid-atlantic
this morning will continue to move eastward and away from the
area through today. The associated stationary boundary to our
south is forecast to remain to our south, while an approaching
occluded front will likely wash out and dissipate as it
approaches the area from the west this afternoon. High pressure
across the canadian maritimes will nose its way down the eastern
seaboard and keep a cool and moist easterly flow across the
area.

Showers and a few thunderstorms across NE pennsylvania and the
northern half of new jersey are continuing to move northeast and
will be out of the area around noon. A few showers have recently
developed across chester county pa. Overall, the mechanisms for
precipitation are diminishing, but the low level moisture will
remain in many areas with the lowest flow still from the e. We
will likely see some breaks develop in the lo clouds, especially
across SE pa and delmarva. It's difficult to get too optimistic
with regards to how much Sun will develop across nj or NE pa.

Where clouds remain through the day, temperatures will likely
have a hard time rising, but if where any breaks of Sun occur
across the southern areas, temperatures will rise more. We used
a blend of available MOS and mosguide for daytime highs.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
The aforementioned occluded front is expected to have
dissipated by this evening, while high pressure from eastern
canada continues nosing down the eastern seaboard. With an
easterly flow continuing across the area, this will keep cool
and moist conditions across the area through the night. It is
possible some isolated showers may develop overnight, but patchy
areas of fog and drizzle may also occur. Uncertain as how dense
fog will get because not much of the guidance gets visibilities
below 1-2 miles. So we will keep patchy fog and drizzle in the
forecast for now, but we are not expecting widespread dense fog
at this time.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
A mid level low is forecast to meander over upper ontario and
vicinity during the mid week period before shifting eastward
over quebec and eventually atlantic canada during the weekend.

An initial mid level trough axis is expected to pass over our
region around Wednesday night with a secondary axis anticipated
around Saturday night. The pattern should be rather unsettled
with the best chance for dry weather extending from Wednesday
night into early Friday.

We are expecting Tuesday to begin with a low overcast in much
of eastern pennsylvania, new jersey and the upper delmarva. Some
fog is anticipated at that time, as well. A southeasterly
surface flow on Tuesday should keep the clouds from lifting and
breaking quickly. As a result, we are forecasting a mostly
cloudy day along with a chance of showers and perhaps some
thunder. High temperatures should be in the 60s up north and
right along the coast. Maximum readings are expected to be in
the lower 70s from the philadelphia metropolitan area southward.

The most likely area for a substantial break in the cloud cover
is southern delaware and the adjacent counties of northeastern
maryland. There the highs could reach the upper 70s.

A weak surface low is forecast to pass off the middle atlantic
coast on Tuesday night with partial clearing possible in its
wake for Wednesday. However, a cold front approaching from the
northwest along with some marginal instability may result in the
development of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. The best chance for precipitation
at that time will be in eastern pennsylvania and northern new
jersey.

The cold front is expected to pass through our region on
Wednesday night followed by dry weather and seasonable
temperatures for Thursday and Thursday night.

Another cold front is anticipated to approach from the
northwest on Friday and it should pass slowly through our region
on Friday night and Saturday. We will mention another chance
for showers and thunderstorms in advance of the front.

The southward progress of the front over the weekend is a low
confidence forecast. The models differ on how progressive the
boundary will be. As a result, we will keep a chance or slight
chance of showers into Sunday.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

An easterly flow will continue through today across the area as
low pressure moves out to sea, and high pressure noses down the
eastern seaboard across the area. This will keep plenty of
moisture low level moisture across the area through today.

Ifr MVFR conditions are expected to continue through much of
the day. However, there is a chance for some improvement this
afternoon into this evening. Even if this improvement does
occur, clouds are expected to fill back in overnight with low
clouds and fog developing again, leading to ifr conditions
overnight. There is also the possibility for patchy drizzle to
develop overnight as well.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Ifr conditions in the morning improving to MVFR and
vfr during the course of the day. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms developing.

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning... Conditions may lower back
to MVFR and ifr for a time.

Wednesday afternoon and evening... MainlyVFR with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday night through Friday morning... MainlyVFR.

Friday afternoon... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
A small craft advisory flag has been issued for the delaware and
southern new jersey coastal waters for today. Seas at buoy 44009
have increased to around 5 ft and the sea seen via webcam near
acy looks quite choppy. We will keep the flag for the daytime
hours, although this may be longer than necessary.

Small craft advisory continues across the northern half of the
atlantic coastal waters as seas are being observed around 5
feet and winds will remain gusty to around 25 knots. We have
extended the flag for the remainder of the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday... Wind speeds and wave heights are
forecast to remain below the small craft advisory criteria.

However, some fog is possible on the waters.

Wednesday night through Friday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Rip currents...

the potential for the development of dangerous rip currents is
low for today.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures of around 1 foot are expected again tonight for
coastal areas of new jersey and delaware and areas along
delaware bay. These tidal departures would lead to another
round of minor coastal flooding for tonight's high tide.

Therefore we've issued a coastal flood advisory for tonight.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am edt
Tuesday for njz012>014-020>027.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am edt
Tuesday for dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Robertson po
short term... Robertson
long term... Iovino
aviation... Iovino robertson po
marine... Iovino robertson po
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 14 mi84 min ENE 14 G 18 56°F 57°F6 ft1013.4 hPa (+1.4)54°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi44 min E 11 G 17 56°F 60°F1014 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi44 min ENE 7 G 8.9 58°F 1015.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi44 min 59°F 61°F1014.7 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi44 min ENE 7 G 8.9
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi44 min 58°F 60°F1014.6 hPa
44091 34 mi44 min 58°F7 ft
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 7 56°F 59°F1014.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi84 min ENE 18 G 19 55°F 56°F7 ft1012 hPa (+1.6)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi44 min SE 5.1 G 7 59°F 67°F1014.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 45 mi44 min ENE 14 G 19 56°F 53°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi78 minENE 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist56°F55°F97%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE8SE9SE10E11
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1 day agoSW6S7SE6S5S5SE5SE4SE4CalmS4CalmCalmS3NE3NE3CalmE3S4E3E7SE8SE10SE9
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W6--W8W8W6W5----W3W4--W7NW9--SW66W7

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:03 AM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:19 AM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:34 PM EDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
53.72.31-0.1-0.6-0.20.82.13.44.34.84.73.82.61.40.4-00.31.22.63.84.85.3

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:54 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:10 AM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:25 PM EDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.93.62.10.8-0.2-0.5-01.12.43.64.54.94.63.72.41.20.3-00.41.42.844.95.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.