Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deal, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:10PM Thursday March 21, 2019 12:05 PM EDT (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:02PMMoonset 7:38AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 901 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of today..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft late. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late in the evening, then becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight, becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 6 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the W with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 901 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. An area of low pressure will lift northward along the eastern seaboard today through Friday, then a cold front will sweep across the east coast on Friday. This low will drift into the canadian maritimes over the weekend. High pressure will build from the western great lakes Friday to our south by Sunday. This will keep a strong northwest flow across the area through the weekend. A cold front is expected to move across the east coast around Monday. High pressure will then build toward the area for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal , NJ
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location: 40.25, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 211531
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1131 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will lift northward along the eastern
seaboard today through Friday, then a cold front will sweep across
the east coast on Friday. This low will drift into the canadian
maritimes over the weekend. High pressure will build from the
western great lakes Friday to our south by Sunday. This will keep a
strong northwest flow across the area through the weekend. A cold
front is expected to move across the east coast around Monday. High
pressure will then build toward the area for the middle of the
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1130 am update... We have growing concerns over the flood
potential for today into tonight due to the rainfall expected
with the coastal low. Forecast models are showing a good signal
of 2-3 inches of rainfall over eastern pa and this will be
enough to put some river points into flood stage. We have added
a hydro section to the afd that can be found below that further
breaks this down.

Previous discussion... Broad low pressure over the great lakes
will move into the ohio valley today, and then will merge with
developing low pressure near the mid-atlantic. This low will
intensify as it lifts along the coast, and will be just
southwest of the DELMARVA peninsula by this evening.

Onshore flow across the region ahead of the developing low will
usher abundant low level moisture into the region. East winds
increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph along the nj coast,
and into southern portions of the eastern shores of md and southern
de later today.

Bands of light rain continue to lift into southern portions of the
forecast area, and light rain bands will affect the region through
late this morning. As the low organizes and lifts to the north, rain
bands will become heavier and more persistent as they lift to the
north and east throughout the region. Flooding may be possible by
this afternoon. Models indicating that precip may be a bit higher,
generally 2-2.25" west of i-95. Will go ahead and issue a flood
watch for northern portions of delmarva, most of southeast pa, and
portions of nj along the i-95 corridor for today and tonight. Most
of the flooding will be poor drainage flooding, and not expecting
main stem river flooding.

Highs today generally in the 40s and 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Low pressure crosses the DELMARVA peninsula this evening, and then
slowly moves across southern nj through tonight, and will be south
of long island by early Friday morning. The heaviest rain will
continue for the northern half of the forecast area, and dry
slotting will move across the DELMARVA and into southeast nj after
midnight tonight. An additional 1 2-3 4 inch of rain will fall
across the northern half of the forecast area, while up to 1 4" of
rain will fall across the southern half.

Winds shift to the west behind the departing low, and a cold front
will move across most of the region. It may take some time for the
dryer air to spread into the region, so there may be areas of fog
through most of the night.

There may be a rain snow mix over the southern poconos before the
precip tapers off.

Lows tonight generally in the 30s and low 40s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Low pressure will continue to lift northward into maine on Friday
and continue to strengthen as it does. Meanwhile, a cold front will
sweep through the area during the day. As this happens, steep low-
mid level lapse rates will develop across the area, while there will
be some enhanced moisture across the area. With a strong short wave
enhancing additional lift, there is a good chance for scattered
showers to develop and move across the area. Temperatures will be
warming during the day Friday, so any showers for most places will
be all rain. However, for areas in the poconos, temperatures will
likely be cold enough for snow to occur. While temperatures will be
warming during the day Friday, if any snow showers come down hard
and fast enough, there could be some accumulations. Another concern
of Friday will be strong winds developing. West to northwest winds
are expected to strengthen and gust 30-35 mph through the day.

The low pressure will continue to drift into the canadian maritimes
Friday night, keeping very strong northwest flow across the area.

There will continue to be a chance of showers for portions of
northeast pennsylvania and northern and central new jersey into the
evening, before tapering off overnight except possibly in the
poconos. Winds will remain strong and gusty with gusts reaching 35-
45 mph.

High pressure builds to our west during the day Saturday, keeping
the strong northwest flow across the area. We do not expect any
shower activity during the day Saturday. However, winds will remain
quite strong and gusty with gusts of 35-45 mph continuing.

The high pressure builds to our south Saturday night through Sunday,
before building offshore to our south Sunday. Dry weather is
expected to continue through the end of the weekend. Winds will
diminish as the shift more toward the west then southwest Sunday and
Sunday night. However, winds may still gust around 20 mph at times
on Sunday.

A cold front is expected to move across the area during the day
Monday. This will lead to an increase in shower chances later in the
day into the evening hours. Winds may become gusty during the day
ahead of the cold front, and continue to be gusty behind the front
into Monday night as well. There is not much instability currently
forecast, but if there is any that develops, would not be surprising
to see an isolated thunderstorm across the DELMARVA or southern new
jersey.

Dry weather returns for Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure
builds to our west on Tuesday, before moving across the area on
Wednesday. Winds will diminish into Tuesday, but may remain gusty at
times.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR ifr conditions will develop this morning in low clouds,
moderate to locally heavy rain, and fog. East winds 10 kt or less,
except for kacy, where east winds will be 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt
gusts this afternoon. Llws developing late this afternoon and this
evening.

Tonight... Ifr conditions in rain, fog, low clouds in the evening,
then ifr and possible lifr conditions in fog stratus late tonight.

Conditions may improve toVFR before daybreak Friday. East winds,
becoming lgt vrb, then shifting to the NW 10-20 kt late.

Outlook...

Friday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected. Conditions may
temporarily lower to MVFR with a chance of scattered showers,
especially later in the day. Gusty northwest winds gusting to 25-35
knots.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds
gusting to 30-35 knots.

Saturday night... Gale force winds may continue early in the evening,
before lowering to small craft advisory levels overnight.

Sunday-Sunday night... Conditions expected to be below advisory
levels, but winds may still gust near 20 knots.

Monday... Conditions likely remain below advisory levels ahead of an
approaching cold front.

Marine
Sca conditions develop on all waters later this morning and will
continue through the day. Conditions fall below SCA conditions on de
bay this evening, then ramp up again before daybreak Friday. East
winds 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts late this morning through this
evening, then winds shift late tonight.

Outlook...

Friday-Saturday... Gale watch is in effect as winds of 35-40 knots
likely through the period.

Saturday night... Gale force winds may continue early in the evening,
before lowering to small craft advisory levels overnight.

Sunday-Sunday night... Conditions expected to be below advisory
levels, but winds may still gust near 20 knots.

Monday... Conditions likely remain below advisory levels ahead of an
approaching cold front.

Hydrology
During the last 24 hours, forecast models have been trending upward
with their qpf, especially across SE pa. The 72 hour precip
forecast, out of the marfc, now has a large swath of 1.50 to 3.00
inches of rainfall across the southern poconos, berks county,
the lehigh valley, the philly suburbs, and NW nj.

As a result, our river stream forecast points are responding. We now
have about a dozen gages in at least caution action stage. While we
will see a significant response across nj, SE pa has a greater
chance to see water over banks. Across the intricate passaic basin
in northern nj, there are about 5 gages now forecast to climb above
caution stage. If the heaviest rainfall expands east into this area,
minor flooding would then be expected. The millstone river in the
raritan basin could also see some minor flooding.

With the heaviest rainfall expected across SE pa, this is where we
are seeing the most significant rises. Portions of the schuylkill
and brandywine are now expected to flood. The smaller creeks and
streams across SE pa and across northern delaware will also see
levels approach or exceed bankfull. Additionally, the perkiomen
creek, the neshaminy creek and portions of the lehigh system,
especially the headwaters of the little lehigh need to be monitored.

In terms of timing, the heaviest rains will fall between 18z today
and 06z tonight. Poor drainage and low-lying flooding, like it
always does, will initiate first. That will start to develop this
afternoon. This rain runoff will move into fast responding creeks
this evening. That water will then bleed into the larger rivers and
streams overnight.

If the rainfall and the flooding comes to fruition, I would expected
river flooding to persist across SE pa through at least the day
tomorrow. The passaic basin in nj responds more slowly. Any flooding
that might develop there will be slower to do so and most likely
last into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
A couple of updates to coastal flood products. We have upgraded
the coastal flood advisory for middlesex and monmouth counties
to a coastal flood warning. We also have issued a coastal flood
advisory to include the tidal delaware river above the
commodore barry bridge area.

The coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the remainder
of the area where it was already in effect.

An area of low pressure will move up the east coast today
through tonight, before lifting up into eastern canada. The
system will maintain an onshore flow along the coasts of
delaware and new jersey through today, allowing for tidal
departures to increase.

While it is possible that there will be spotty minor flooding
with the this morning's high tide, our main concern is with the
evening overnight high tide.

Tidal departures of +0.8 to +0.9 feet would begin to create
minor flooding on Thursday evening along the coasts of new
jersey and delaware, along delaware bay and on the tidal delaware
river. Departures of greater than +1.0 foot would produce some
noticeable impacts on the coastal tidal communities in our
region, with some roadway flooding. At this time, we are fairly
confident that departures will equal or exceed +1.0 foot in most
of the advisory area. Also, rainfall could worsen any roadway
and poor drainage area flooding that occurs.

No flooding is expected on the upper eastern shore of
chesapeake bay.

Once the low moves away to our northeast, an offshore wind will
develop and the potential for minor coastal flooding will
diminish. While some residual spotty minor flooding is possible
along the northern part of the new jersey coast with Friday
morning's high tide, there should be no additional issues after
that.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flood watch through late tonight for paz060>062-070-071-
101>106.

Coastal flood advisory from 1 am to 6 am edt Friday for paz070-
071-106.

Nj... Flood watch through late tonight for njz007>010-012-015>019.

Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 am edt
Friday for njz020>027.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Friday for njz016.

Coastal flood advisory from 1 am to 6 am edt Friday for njz015-
017>019.

Coastal flood warning from 6 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Friday for njz012>014.

De... Flood watch through late tonight for dez001.

Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 am edt
Friday for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Friday for dez001.

Md... Flood watch through late tonight for mdz008-012.

Marine... Gale watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
anz430-431-450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Fitzsimmons mps
short term... Mps
long term... Robertson
aviation... Robertson mps
marine... Robertson mps
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 14 mi46 min E 16 G 18 44°F 42°F1017.8 hPa42°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi48 min E 11 G 15 44°F 44°F1019.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi48 min E 13 G 16 47°F 1019.1 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi48 min ENE 8 G 13
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi48 min 46°F 42°F1018.5 hPa
44091 34 mi66 min 43°F5 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi76 min E 12 G 14 44°F 41°F4 ft1018.6 hPa (-0.8)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi48 min ENE 5.1 G 6 42°F 40°F1020.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi48 min ESE 6 G 8.9 47°F 45°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi70 minE 910.00 miLight Rain45°F43°F93%1018.6 hPa

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1 day ago3Calm5SE10SE5SE9SE7S5S4S4SW4SW4SW5S5SW4SW4SW4CalmS4S3SW5SW5S10
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2 days ago3SW9SE9SE9SE7SE6S6S4S3S5S5SW6SW5W4CalmW4NW5NW4NW5NW4NW3NW5NW6W8

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Thu -- 02:14 AM EDT     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:24 AM EDT     5.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:42 PM EDT     -1.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:54 PM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1-0.3-0.9-0.70.423.64.85.55.44.53.11.60.2-0.8-1-0.31.22.84.35.35.75.13.8

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:05 AM EDT     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:15 AM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:33 PM EDT     -1.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:45 PM EDT     5.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8-0.4-1-0.60.72.33.855.65.44.42.91.40-0.9-1-0.11.43.14.55.55.753.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.