Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deal, NJ

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Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:37 AM EDT (04:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 853 Pm Edt Fri Aug 17 2018
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 4 seconds. A slight chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and early morning, then becoming N late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms early in the morning, then a chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 853 Pm Edt Fri Aug 17 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will move into the region on Saturday, stalling just south of our area Saturday night. SEveral waves of low pressure will move along the stalled boundary through the weekend and into early next week. The stalled front will lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west from Thursday through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal , NJ
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location: 40.25, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 180141
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
941 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move into the region on Saturday, stalling just
south of our area Saturday night. Several waves of low pressure will
move along the stalled boundary through the weekend and into early
next week. The stalled front will lift northward as a warm front on
Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will
build in from the west from Thursday through the end of the
week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
We have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for the area.

Much of the remaining thunderstorms activity, which is mostly
away from the previous watch, is rapidly diminishing and moving
ne. Scattered activity will continue for a few more hours N e
and more isolated activity back into NE pa as well.

Clouds and temperature grids have been adjusted in line with the
latest observations

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Cold front slowly sinks south through the day before stalling late
in the day. It may be weakening as it progresses through our region,
but still should provide a focus for additional shower and
thunderstorm development. Precipitable water values, even behind the
front, remain well above normal, so we will continue to see a threat
of heavy downpours. Although, like today, storm motions should be
near 20 mph, which sill somewhat limit the flooding threat. The
flood threat is also dependent on how much rain the region sees
through this evening.

As for the risk of severe storms, instability looks to be quite
limited tomorrow, thanks in part to persistent cloud cover and
storms starting early in the day. This, plus the fact that 0-6km
bulk shear values remain modest, around 20 kt, means that the risk
of severe storms should be low on Saturday.

Not surprisingly, temperatures will be highly dependent on the
evolution of the front. Have gone with a blend of short term
guidance, keeping temperatures around 90 for the coastal plains and
80s and 70s further north and west.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Saturday night through Monday... The cold fronts forward progress
starts to slow down by Saturday night and the front will stall over
or just south of our area. For now, the guidance keeps the front
just south of the region but there is potential for it to wobble a
bit as it remains nearby through Monday.

Several waves of low pressure will travel along the stalled boundary
on Sunday and Monday. This will keep us in a now very familiar and
unsettled pattern to end the weekend and start the week. A chance
for showers and thunderstorms will exist through Monday, with the
potential for heavy rainfall to occur as pwats remain around 2
inches on Sunday. Expect pwats to decrease some for Monday, down to
around 1.25-1.50 inches as some drier air pushes down from the north
in response to high pressure building across new england. Conditions
across the region remain fairly wet as we have not had very many
days where significant drying can occur. So this will once again
mean that there will be the potential for flooding across our
already saturated region.

An upper trough will dig down and move through the region late
Sunday through Monday. Some cooler air will be brought southward and
that should help to keep Sunday cooler than it has been of late.

However, it is short lived as the airmass will start to modify and
warm for Monday. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday, some
mid 80s possible in southern delaware due to the proximity to the
stalled boundary. Generally expect highs in the lower 80s for
Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday... An area of low pressure will start to
organize over the midwestern states and track towards the great
lakes region early in the week. As this low makes its move towards
upstate new york eastern canada, it will start to push the stalled
boundary to the north as a warm front.

There is not a lot of instability on Tuesday as the front moves
through. However, pwats remain high and the lift from the front may
be just enough to allow for some convection to develop. Will
continue to mention a slight chance for thunder through Tuesday.

The low continues to pull northward into eastern canada and as it
moves along, it will drag a cold front towards and then through our
region on Wednesday. A secondary front may push through the region
later on Wednesday. The bulk of the moisture looks to be tied to the
primary cold front so not expecting much precipitation to occur with
the second frontal passage.

Thursday and Friday... High pressure will start to push eastward and
into our area on Thursday. Expect conditions to dry out for the end
of the week. However, the only fly in the ointment is the location
of the front that moved through the area on Wednesday. Guidance
shows the boundary stalling offshore which could keep the chance for
some showers mainly across our southern and coastal areas.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... PrevailingVFR. Temporary MVFR and even localized ifr
if any of the lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms
affect a TAF site. Outside of thunderstorms, expect southerly
and southwesterly winds around 10 kt.

Tomorrow... MostlyVFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible through out the day, though the period of highest risk
should be in the afternoon. If any showers or storms directly affect
a TAF site, MVFR or even brief ifr conditions will be possible.

Winds should be southwesterly and westerly around 10 kt until a cold
front arrives later in the day. North of this front, winds could
shift to northwesterly, but should remain near 10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday... Chance for showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR ifr conditions possible. Light winds through the overnight
periods with northeast around 5 to 10 knots through Sunday and
Monday. Gusts up to 20 knots possible on Sunday.

Tuesday... Chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms with
MVFR ifr conditions possible. East to southeast winds around 5 to 10
knots.

Wednesday... Chance for showers and thunderstorms with MVFR ifr
conditions possible. West to southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Marine
Seas should stay below 5 feet on all waters through tomorrow.

A brief period of wind gusts around 25 kt is possible, even away
from showers and thunderstorms through 1 am. Some thunderstorms
overnight may be capable of mixing down the stronger winds and
producing winds above 34 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday... Seas and winds will increase as
a boundary remains stalled south of the area waters. Winds may
gust near 25 knots Sunday afternoon. Seas will rise to near 5
feet by mid morning on Sunday. A small craft advisory may be
needed. Additionally, a chance for showers and thunderstorms
will produce locally higher winds and waves.

Monday... Seas are expected to subside early and remain below 5 feet
through Monday. Winds will remain below small craft advisory
criteria.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Conditions expected to remain below
small craft advisory criteria. Winds may gust around 20 knots
through the afternoons on each day.

Rip currents...

a low risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected
to continue through tomorrow. However, lightning will be a concern
through the day as well.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Johnson o'hara
short term... Johnson
long term... Meola
aviation... Johnson meola
marine... Johnson meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 14 mi28 min SSW 12 G 14 78°F 77°F1012.9 hPa76°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi38 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 77°F 80°F1014.5 hPa (-0.8)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi38 min WNW 7 G 8 75°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.0)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi38 min 76°F 78°F1014.3 hPa (+0.4)
MHRN6 30 mi38 min WNW 15 G 20
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi38 min 75°F 78°F1014.6 hPa (+0.0)
44091 34 mi68 min 79°F4 ft
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi38 min NNE 7 G 8.9 74°F 77°F1015 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi48 min SSW 14 G 16 78°F 77°F3 ft1013.6 hPa (-1.2)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi38 min Calm G 1 80°F 73°F1013.8 hPa (-0.6)
44022 - Execution Rocks 45 mi53 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 76°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi42 minSSW 710.00 miFair80°F73°F82%1014 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Sat -- 01:28 AM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:36 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:03 PM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.84.34.33.62.71.91.20.70.71.11.92.93.84.54.84.53.82.92.11.4111.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:19 AM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:27 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:54 PM EDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.44.33.52.61.71.10.70.71.22.133.94.64.94.53.62.721.30.911.62.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.