Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 4:48 AM   Moonset 6:31 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 335 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - S winds around 5 kt, becoming N around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers until early morning. Patchy fog early this evening. Areas of fog late this evening and early morning, then patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms after midnight. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then slight chance of rain after midnight. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain and chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of tstms. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri night - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sat - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 335 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure on Tuesday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Tuesday night that moves across the area on Wednesday. A lingering frontal boundary south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday will eventually strengthen as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure moves across Thursday night into Friday. The low will be east of the region Friday night into next weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 062304 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 704 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will work its way through the region tonight before becoming nearly stationary south of Delmarva. Low pressure tracks along the front late tonight through Tuesday morning. Another area of low pressure passes through the region on Wednesday followed by a stronger low on Thursday. A cold front passes through on Friday, then several disturbances are possible this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 700 PM, a weak cold front is across northwest New Jersey, the Poconos then trails southwestward. The lower cloud cover is tending to thin/clear in the vicinity of this front with just some mid to high level clouds from the southwest. Farther south, lower clouds remain however the cloud bases have come up some overall. Given these trends, significantly adjusted the PoPs to remove them across the north and delayed the increase some across Delmarva. A decent amount of convection is ongoing in Virginia and it is slowly moving east-northeastward. At least some of this is expected to slide across our Delmarva zones later this evening and overnight and also get into far southern New Jersey. North of here, little to no shower activity may occur. Made some tweaks to the hourly temperature and dew point grids to keep them current based on the latest observations, and adjusted the cloud cover down across the northwest areas some for a time given satellite trends.

Otherwise, a cold front will slowly slide south across the area tonight and with a weak wave of low pressure track along it the best best forcing for ascent and RH is across the southern areas (highest PoPs will be here for the overnight). Some instability may result in a thunderstorm. As for rainfall, around a quarter inch can be anticipated down around far southern New Jersey and Delmarva.

As the cold front settles through the area, some drying is forecast from the north and this is most notable across the northern portions of our coverage area. Given the lack of wind and therefore mixing overnight with the front, some fog is expected. There may be enough drying though to prevent widespread fog coverage or dense fog and given the uncertainty just included patchy fog for now. Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Weak low pressure will be just east of Delaware Tuesday morning.
This will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through at least the daybreak hours. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to decrease by lunchtime as low pressure moves offshore. PoPs won't be zero for the remainder of the day for all areas, but the most showers should be in the morning. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s.

Another area of low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A warm front extending out from that system will lift towards southwest portions of the area later in the day.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Another area of low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A warm front extending out from that system will lift towards southwest portions of the forecast area Tuesday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in the evening and then become likely for most of the region after midnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning as that warm front lifts through the region. Precipitation tapers off by midday Wednesday, and then a warm and humid airmass will be in place. Highs top off in the mid to upper 80s, except for the low 80s in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey, and in the 70s along the coasts. Surface dew points will be in the upper 50s to low 60s in the afternoon.

Low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday night, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into portions of southeast Pennsylvania and Delmarva late Wednesday night. As the main surface low tracks towards western New York and Pennsylvania, a secondary low will develop out ahead of this primary low, resulting in more widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms moving into the region Thursday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts north of the region.
Global guidance has indicated some instability as the warm front lifts north, suggesting the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms south of the warm front during the afternoon, but exactly how far north the warm front progresses will greatly determine the coverage of any strong to severe storms in our forecast area. At the moment, it remains too uncertain to mention anything more specific at this time. Even the afternoon high temperatures will be highly variant on where the warm front ends up, with low to mid 60s north of the front and mid to upper 70s south. Showers and storms will taper off Thursday night as the storm system shifts offshore.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front will push through the region Friday afternoon and evening. Yet another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the area during that time.

Behind the cold front, surface high pressure builds east.
Several weak disturbances may touch off some afternoon showers on Saturday and Sunday.

Highs will then be in the 60s for southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey and in the low to mid 70s in Delmarva on Friday.
Below normal highs expected for Saturday and Sunday, generally in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...A blend of MVFR/VFR conditions this evening are expected to lower to MVFR and IFR overnight (locally LIFR possible). Some fog is expected overnight. Some showers overnight mainly at KMIV and KACY. West-southwest to northwest winds 3-5 knots becoming mostly light and variable to locally calm. Low confidence on how widespread the fog will become.

Tuesday...Areas of MVFR/IFR for a time in the morning, then conditions improve to VFR. Some mainly morning showers mainly near KACY and KMIV. Light and variable winds, becoming east-northeast to east-southeast around 5 knots then becoming locally southwest in the afternoon. Low confidence on timing details when conditions return to VFR and also wind shift details given light speeds.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions at night in fog and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day.
Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub-VFR conditions. More widespread SHRA with scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Tonight through Tuesday...The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Some fog, possibly dense, improving during Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in locally higher wind gusts and seas, with biggest impacts coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal ranges increasing this week as the new moon arrives Tuesday evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still minor tidal flooding is possible beginning tomorrow evening and perhaps Wed/Thu evening as well. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued overnight if trends remain.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Matawan Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:09 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     5.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:18 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     6.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matawan Creek, Route 35 bridge, New Jersey, Tide feet

Old Bridge
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Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:48 AM EDT     6.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:11 PM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     7.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey, Tide feet

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