Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 6:28 AM   Moonset 10:22 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 539 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight edt tonight through Friday evening - .
Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain early, then rain.Fri - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Sat - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 539 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal boundary will remain south of the region through Friday night, with a series of weak waves of low pressure traveling along it. These lows will remain nearby this weekend. High pressure returns on Monday before moving offshore into Tuesday.

FXUS61 KPHI 100147 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 947 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure will remain across the northern Middle Atlantic region this evening. After that, several waves of low pressure affect our area with the unsettled patterned continuing from later tonight through Sunday. High pressure builds south of the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. More unsettled weather may impact our area next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low pressure well to the west is moving rather quickly along the front (to our south) and will bring poorer conditions for as we head into the overnight. Spotty rain has already overspread the region. More rains will develop and move across the region as the evening continues and then become steadier overnight. Low pressure will move offshore by Friday morning and a NE flow around the N side of the low will bring low clouds and rains to the region late tonight.

For Friday, the low will continue to move offshore, but an upper trough and lingering low level moisture will keep plenty of clouds and rains across the area Friday.

For the evening update, main change was more of the flavor vs.
substance... instead of showers, went with occasional/periods of rain and drizzle, given the cool onshore flow and overall lack of convection. NBM thunder probs do have some slight chances across southern areas, so did include a slight chance of thunder tonight and tomorrow as the main wave moves by, but its only slight and will be elevated above the cool marine layer.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unsettled weather will continue through Sunday with a brief reprieve during the day on Saturday. PoPs slide downward quickly Friday night such that by early Saturday, the low looks to be far enough away that conditions should be mostly dry regionwide.
Lows Friday night will be mainly in the mid- upper 40s and highs Saturday will warm back into the low 60s.

By Saturday evening, the next wave of low pressure will arrive out of the Great Lakes, increasing chances for showers, particularly west of the Philly at night, and centered more on Philly during the day Sunday. Showers continue to move into the region Sunday (PoPs 55-65 percent) with lows again in the mid- upper 40s. Highs will be cooler on Sunday, with 50s to near 60 common.

Main change this evening was to slow the arrival and departure of precip and increase PoPS a bit, with more likelies Saturday night into Sunday, but nothing above 10 percent during the day Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A brief period of dry weather is expected beginning Sunday night and continuing into Monday as high pressure briefly builds to the south of the Mid Atlantic region. This dry weather will only be brief as chances will begin to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a storm system approaches from the southwest.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Tonight...Rain/drizzle becoming more widespread and steadier with some patchy fog likely as well. Cigs lowering to MVFR through the evening with IFR cigs likely toward morning.
East winds around 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Friday...Rain/drizzle continuing with conditions remaining IFR likely through at least the first half of the day with some improvement to low MVFR possible by afternoon. East to northeast winds around 10 knots with some gusts to 15-20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night-Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions probable (50-60 percent chance) at times through the period with chances (40-50 percent) for showers.

Sunday night-Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through Monday.
Sub- VFR conditions with chances for showers return late Tuesday.

MARINE
Latest guidance continues to advertise strong easterly flow developing as wave of low pressure passes to the south late tonight and Friday. In fact, its now advertising borderline gales over the NJ ocean zones. Did not go quite that far, but did increase winds to just below gales and extend time of SCA to begin a little earlier overnight. Also added SCA to Delaware Bay during peak winds Friday morning-midday. Will let mid-shift re- evaluate any need for upgrade to gales.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory extended for Atlantic Ocean coastal waters through Saturday. Seas of 5-6 feet expected with winds gusting 20-25 knots. Sub- SCA conditions on the Delaware Bay. Sub-SCA conditions return Saturday night.

Sunday through Tuesday...Overall, mainly sub-SCA conditions expected through Monday. Stronger winds may bring SCA conditions back late Monday into Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The new moon occurred Tuesday, May 7th, and this is resulting in high astronomical tides. As a front settles to our south, an onshore flow will develop and strengthen some through the end of the week, peaking Friday into Friday night. While the astronomical tides will be gradually lowering as we get farther away from the new moon, the onshore flow should increase the surge values at least some. With this combination, widespread minor tidal flooding is again expected with the high tide tonight into early Friday morning for the Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. As a result, the Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for these areas.

With the peak onshore flow leading up to the Friday night high tide cycle, guidance continues to support potential for moderate tidal flooding for portions of Atlantic coastal New Jersey and Delaware, as well as Delaware Bay with the Friday night to early Saturday morning high tide cycle. The Coastal Flood Watch was expanded to include southeastern Burlington and Ocean Counties. As of the 5 PM Thursday forecast update, our confidence is highest that coastal Sussex (DE) and Cape May Counties are the most likely locations to see moderate coastal flooding impacts Friday night, thus the Coastal Flood Watch was upgraded to a Warning for those two counties.

Elsewhere within the Coastal Flood Watch area, there is somewhat lower confidence that moderate tidal flooding impact will be experienced. Thus, the Watch remains in effect.
Regardless, widespread minor tidal flooding is expected within the Watch area and adjacent areas of the Atlantic coast of New Jersey, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with the Friday night to early Saturday morning high tide cycle.
Examination of tonight's observed water levels and surge values and additional guidance will be used to determine which areas will need to be upgraded to a warning or to an advisory for Friday night.

The Friday night high tide cycle looks to be the peak of the coastal flooding impacts area-wide, but additional minor coastal flooding is forecast with the evening/overnight high tide Saturday night into early Sunday.

Flooding is not expected at this time for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake through Saturday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070- 071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NJZ012>014- 020>027.
Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for NJZ020>022-025>027.
Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ023-024.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Friday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for DEZ002>004.
Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for DEZ002.
Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ003-004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ430- 431.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>453.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ454-455.

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Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey, Tide feet

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