Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Branch, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:19PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 1:10 PM EDT (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:54AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1206 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt...becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers...mainly in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 1206 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure near hudson's bay will build into our region through tonight. Low pressure moving through the ohio valley on Friday will redevelop near the new jersey coast Friday night and move offshore on Saturday. High pressure will move into the area for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure over the ohio valley and its associated fronts will approach our region on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Branch, NJ
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location: 40.28, -73.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 291614
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1214 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure near hudson's bay will build into our region
through Wednesday night. Low pressure moving through the ohio
valley on Friday will redevelop near the new jersey coast
Friday night and move offshore on Saturday. High pressure
will move into the area for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure
over the ohio valley and its associated fronts will approach
our region on Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Mid and low clouds right along the nj shore and across southern
and coastal de will continue to erode and drift away through the
afternoon as high pressure builds in from the north and west.

Some diurnally driven mid-level CU will spread into pa/nj later
this afternoon as well.

Winds beginning to diminish, and n-nw winds 10-15 mph on tap for
the rest of the afternoon. Winds may back a bit more to the w-nw
late in the afternoon, and this may provide just enough of a
downsloping component to the winds to allow temps to warm up
late in the day.

Max temps in the mid 40s in the poconos, and in the low 50s
across northern nj. Otherwise, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s
across central/southern nj, SE pa, and in the low to mid 60s in
md/de.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday/
Clear or mostly clear skies, a few fragments of sc in the early
eve and possibly a little cirrus. Some radiational cooling
expected. Light north wind. Normal or slightly below normal
mins.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/29 gfs/nam MOS guidance. Applied
minor 1-2f cooler than guidance adjustments in our 330 am fcst
for tonight.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
The primary players during the long term will be two southern
stream systems that are expected to impact our region in the
Friday-Saturday and Tuesday time frames.

The first system may produce 1 to 1.5 inches of rain across
portions of the region, especially in the delaware valley. While
there could be some urban and poor drainage flooding, we do not
expect any major impacts on rivers and streams. There is also a
consistent signal in the models for mixed precip north of i-80,
with sleet and freezing rain the primary concerns, during the
Friday night and Saturday morning period. We have mentioned this
in the hwo.

Looking ahead to early next week, the next system is expected to
bring more precip to our region Monday night into Tuesday. This
setup looks warmer, given the absence of high latitude blocking,
and would favor predominantly rain.

Aviation /16z Wednesday through Sunday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR CIGS at kacy will give way toVFR conditions no
later than 18z. Otherwise,VFR. Diurnally driven sct clouds at
3500 ft possible this afternoon.

Nw winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt for the rest of the
afternoon.

Tonight...VFR with fragments of sc in the evening and maybe some
thin cirrus at times. Light north wind.

Outlook...

predominantlyVFR, except MVFR possible Friday into Saturday.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions on the waters with NW flow 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt through this afternoon. Seas will average 3-4
ft on the ocean, and 1-2 ft on de bay.

Sca may be needed for anz450-51 (nnj tonight).

Elsewhere... Gusty north wind through the night to around 20-22
kt.

Outlook...

sca likely Friday into Saturday, with the potential for gale
force southeasterly wind gusts Friday night, mainly across the
northern nj waters. Otherwise, sub-sca.

Tides/coastal flooding
Though astronomical tides will be gradually diminishing through
the week now that we are past the new moon, the threat of minor
tidal flooding along the nj and de atlantic coasts increases
late in the week. This is a result of a low pressure system
bringing a prolonged period of onshore flow. The tide of most
concern at this point is the high tide on Friday evening/late
Friday night. By this tide cycle, it will take a surge of 0.8 to
1.0 feet to reach minor flooding thresholds, which is possible
but still uncertain (it will be dependent on how quickly the on
shore flow develops and how strong it will be by then). At least
one source of guidance shows water levels reaching minor tidal
flooding thresholds with the Thursday evening/night high tide,
but that seems unlikely as the latest forecast depicts onshore
flow either developing right around or just after the time of
that high tide.

We have mentioned the potential of minor flooding along the
northern nj coast in the hwo, where the threat is greatest
during the Friday evening/late Friday night high tide cycle.

Climate
Mo avg temps
march dep feb dep
abe 38.0 -1.1 39.2 +8.5
acy 41.6 -0.6 43.0 +7.7
ilg 41.7 -1.3 43.1 +8.0
phl 42.2 -1.3 44.2 +8.5
this march will be a below normal month for temps... . One of
the very few the last two years.

We appreciate that this is possibly old news, but march temperatures
will average colder than the feb average at all 4 long term climate
locations. The last time this occurred, 1984.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Mps
short term... Drag
long term... Franck
aviation... Drag/franck/mps
marine... Drag/franck
tides/coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 10 mi80 min NNW 9.7 G 9.7 45°F 42°F3 ft1018.6 hPa (+1.2)39°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 15 mi52 min N 7 G 11 49°F 42°F1017.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 28 mi52 min N 14 G 19 50°F 1018.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi52 min 51°F 43°F1018.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 30 mi52 min 51°F 42°F1017.9 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi52 min NNW 8.9 G 11
44091 35 mi40 min 44°F4 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 36 mi80 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 43°F 42°F3 ft1017.9 hPa (+1.9)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi52 min 12 G 15 46°F 40°F1018.1 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi55 min N 7.8 G 16 45°F 1 ft36°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 49 mi52 min N 6 G 15 54°F 44°F1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ16 mi14 minNNW 1510.00 miA Few Clouds54°F35°F49%1019 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8NE9NE8NE8N5N7NE9N10N10N8N6NW6--W5NW4NW7N11N11N13
G18
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N11NW11NW15
1 day agoSW7SW11W8NW5W3E6E5E4CalmE5E3E7E7E10E11NE9NE7E5NE7NE8NW6NE10NE8NE4
2 days ago--NE13
G16
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E12E12E8E13NE10E11E9NE10NE8NE10NE8NE8NE7E6E6E4CalmCalmSW3SW6SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Wed -- 03:01 AM EDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:03 AM EDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:23 PM EDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
20.7-0.3-0.7-0.30.92.53.94.95.34.93.82.40.9-0.2-0.7-0.50.62.23.84.95.55.44.6

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch Reach, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Long Branch Reach
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Wed -- 06:18 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:47 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.721.20.5-0.1-0.4-0.30.41.52.433.12.82.21.40.6-0-0.4-0.40.21.32.33

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.