Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 9:14 AM   Moonset 12:22 AM

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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1002 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Rest of today - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 foot at 7 seconds. Showers late this morning and early afternoon, then a slight chance of showers late. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds. Mon night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. Showers.Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers.Wed night - NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

ANZ400 1002 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 121412 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1012 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure centered over northern Pennsylvania this morning will continue to move eastward through this afternoon. High pressure builds south of the Mid- Atlantic region tonight into Monday.
Another area of low pressure brings more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure currently centered over northern Pennsylvania has an associated occluded front southeast into the Delmarva. Rain will be most concentrated to the north of the boundary as the surface low pivots over the New York-Pennsylvnia region.
Scattered showers and drizzle over central Pennsylvania this morning will move southeastward into greater instability forecast over the Delmarva by early afternoon. SBCAPE values up to 500 J/kg will support convective showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Delmarva and into portions of southeast PA south of the boundary.

Any shower/thunderstorm activity will quickly wane with the loss of surface-based instability by early evening. Clouds will diminish rapidly around 00Z as drier air filters in. Patchy fog will form overnight with radiational cooling and light winds.
Low temps will be in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Quiet weather makes a brief return with partly sunny skies and temps warming into the low to mid 70s under broad scale subsidence for Monday. The brief reprieve ends shortly though as the ridge breaks down ahead of an advance cutoff low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley region. With a modest surge of PVA and height falls, there should be ample lift to support fairly widespread showers across the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Severe progs aren't very supportive so we should be looking at more of the typical spring/summer showers with maybe a rumble of thunder and brief periods of moderate rainfall. PW isn't forecast to be high with respect to climo as the EFI is remarkable average for the week across the forecast region. Ensemble guidance suggests about a 40% of seeing 0.4" or more with only a 15-20% chance of more than an inch. With rivers back towards normal streamflows and the rainfall not expected to fall over a short period of time, there are currently no flooding concerns.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Heading towards the end of the week the forecast will be highly dependent on how quickly the low pressure system through the middle of the week departs. There's considerable spread in guidance clusters from the ensemble suites this morning mostly dependent on timing. So the forecast is subject to change somewhat dramatically over the next few days until guidance becomes more consistent. Eventually another system will bring widely scattered showers but for the given reason just mentioned, confidence isn't sufficiently high on whether that is Sat or Sun. Thus the forecast call for low to moderate changes (30-40%) both days with slightly higher chances on Saturday.

Temps through the long term should be fairly seasonable in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the 50s most days.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today...Ceilings 1-2K ft over PA/NJ/northern DE through mid afternoon then gradually becoming sct 22Z-00Z. Sct- bkn clouds with bases 3-5K ft over southern DE and Eastern shore MD will continue rest of the day. Main area of light rain over NJ and eastern PA will continue through mid afternoon before dissipating. Scattered showers with potential thunderstorms will move through Delmarva this afternoon. SE winds around 5-10 kt.

Tonight...Any lingering bkn-ovc ceilings will become few-skc 00Z-02Z. Patchy fog in southeast PA valleys and inland NJ overnight. Winds light and variable.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...No significant weather expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with occasional showers.

Thursday...No significant weather expected.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. E-SE winds around 10-15 kt today will diminish to around 5-10 kt tonight. Seas of 3-4 feet. Scattered rain showers through this afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Significant wave heights approach 6 feet Wednesday. Occasional showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High tide has passed over the Atlantic Ocean however trapped water in the back bays will slowly empty through this afternoon.

Spotty minor flooding is also expected with tomorrow morning's high tide within the Chesapeake Bay.

No further tidal flooding issues are expected beyond this morning's high tide.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:47 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:20 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:54 PM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey, Tide feet

Long Branch Reach, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey, Tide feet

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